Oil has fallen, or old problems in the innovation economy of Russia
And again, the Russian economy demonstrates its dubious sharpening. Over the past months, oil prices have steadily gone down. If the world met the new 2013 year with a price in the 110 area of dollars per barrel of crude oil, and then also stated that the price of “black gold” was rising, then from mid-February the rise in prices was replaced by a fall in prices. The absolute record was recorded in February - then the price per barrel of Brent crude oil was 118,01 dollars. Today, hydrocarbon prices have reached an absolute annual minimum, dropping below 98 dollars per barrel. Oil prices are going down, and our ruble has also begun to fever: it has lost all its positions won over the past couple of years both in relation to the dollar and in relation to the European currency. It would seem, well, so that we are from the fact that oil "collapsed" by 17% over a two-month period? Yes, outwardly, nothing, if you do not take into account the fact that we are citizens of a state that positions itself as a segment of the global economy. And in this very segment there is a budget, the fulfillment of which is “tied” to a positive in terms of oil prices on the world market. The layout of the budget at one time was carried out in such a way that all the implementation of the programs laid down in it was joined to the 97-dollar price of one oil barrel. Today, as you can see, the price of "black gold" has come close to this mark, beyond which there is absolutely nothing good for the Russian economy. The fall in oil prices below 97 dollars per barrel will affect literally all economic sectors, which we have not long since experienced.
I do not want to indulge in memories of a negative nature, but in this case, it seems, you can not do without them. The last such sharp drop in hydrocarbon prices in the world was observed when we were announced that the world was facing a global financial crisis. The consequences of that crisis are remembered by everyone: from problems with the banking sector to astronomical figures of falling production levels. The Russian financial and production sector then saved from a complete economic collapse, except perhaps the so-called reserve fund is, in fact, a big jug, which was reserved for a rainy day. Black day came in 2008, and the reserve fund began to rapidly lose their volumes. To demonstrate the dynamics with which the reserve fund of the Russian Federation narrowed and dried out, you need to cite the figures: in June 2008, the total amount of this fund was 3,07 trillion rubles, in June 2011 of the year - already 745 billion. In other words, the country's reserve fund for the three crisis years lost about 2,3 trillion rubles - almost three-quarters of its money supply.
If you translate your attention to the state of the reserve fund now, then its volume is about 2,6 trillion rubles. Of course, this is also a good “economic safety cushion” for the Russian financial system, but if something like the crisis wave of 2008-2011 is again approaching the global economy, there is hardly anything left in the same reserve fund.
And the fact that again smelled of a crisis breeze is a fact. A significant drop in oil prices is just one of the signs. But the main sign of the impending crisis, experts believe even more impressive fall in gold prices. Even in the era of the previous crisis wave, prices for solar metal did not fall so rapidly. The current trend in gold prices is as follows: in September 2011, the price per troy ounce was US $ 1864,15, today it is already US $ 1373. It should be borne in mind that the price fell by almost 200 US dollars per ounce in the last month alone. Experts attribute such a rapid fall in gold prices by lower demand for gold in India, whose economy has traditionally used the gold production sector for its development. However, the fall in the demand for gold from India has been going on for about a year and a half, but the price for gold has not yet demonstrated such a grand peak. It turns out that the fall in gold prices is hardly worth linking exclusively with Indian manufacturing companies.
With regard to what is the cause of such a significant subsidence of goods, let's say, classical currency substitution (of previous eras), many experts say that the essence is to be found at the US Federal Reserve system. There ends the programs of the so-called quantitative stimulation, which all this time looked like artificially created levers of economic control, which means that crisis bacilli again penetrate markets open to all winds. It turns out that as soon as the economy is allowed to float freely (according to all market laws), this very economy immediately demonstrates its unviability. Here it is worth making the following analogy: it is suddenly decided to discharge the unfinished patient from the hospital, stating that he can also stitch the seam after surgery at home; the pale patient, holding the seam with his hands, stumbles toward the house, but loses consciousness at the very front door. At the same time, the “doctors” look into their hospital window and ponder what to do with this patient: take him back to the clinic and spend money on his treatment, or let him calmly sleep ...
So far, apparently, thoughts about the fate of the world economy continue, and at this very time, let's say, lies on the asphalt ...
At the same time on the territory of the Russian Federation begins a certain stir among the people who, one way or another, are responsible for the fate of the Russian financial system. Initially it was thought that now no crisis could be terrible for us, since Russia had joined the WTO since August of last year. Like, what kind of crisis is there, if the markets are always filled with inexpensive goods, generating a high level of competition and leading to an increase in production, lower prices and an increase in the purchasing power of ordinary citizens?
But now it turns out that the WTO protects Russia from the global crisis in much the same way that a gasoline canister that is right inside the car protects the driver of the car from the negative consequences of a traffic accident. Speaking of gasoline ...
While oil prices are breaking new records of falling, gasoline prices in the vast majority of Russian regions strangely remain the same, and in some places they even manage to grow. So, for example, the price of a liter of gasoline AI-95 at many gas stations of the company "Lukoil" in Central Russia has exceeded the 32 ruble. This is about 15-20% higher than the average gasoline price in the United States of America. Needless to say that the income of Russians living, for example, in the Kursk or Voronezh regions, is several times lower than the income of residents of the states of Kansas or Michigan. According to recent estimates by one of the automotive publications, the average Russian can buy about 840 liters of gasoline AI-95 for his salary, the average German - 1818 liters, and an American - almost 3400 liters. And despite the fact that the United States at times loses to Russia in terms of oil reserves, and oil production in Germany in terms of volumes with the Russian level of production of “black gold” generally cannot be compared ...
Refueling at one of the petrol stations, they decided to cope with it: why oil is getting cheaper, and at the same time, gasoline does not think of getting cheaper. The employee of the gas station responded cheerfully that gas is now being sold, which is made from the oil that cost more ... But then another question: why, as soon as oil grows at least a cent per barrel, gasoline immediately adds to the price. Really, in this case, gasoline, which falls on the gas station, already have time to "boil down" of the more expensive oil. There is no answer to this question. Well, except that some major expert in the field of economics will say that, they say, the market and all that ... They say that the cost of freight services suddenly soared, or the oil companies suddenly decided to spend money on the introduction of new technologies ... real profanation of all economic laws. Although the laws themselves are far from fulfilling everything.
In general, the oddities of the disproportionality of gasoline prices and oil prices in our country do not cease to amaze, just as the weirdness of our accession to the WTO also ceases to amaze. It seems to be expected better, but here - on you! Indeed, the number of goods has increased (according to monitoring agency estimates), but for some reason the price of these products does not even think to fall. And where is the declared reduction in price from increasing the level of competition?
Moreover, mainly imported goods appear on the shelves as a “replacement”. According to the monitoring of retail chains, the level of imports has increased by more than 2013% since January 12. And if Russia has already managed to get used to Chinese imports without joining the WTO, now, it seems, the whole essence of competition is reduced to rivalry for the Russian market of China and other countries. The Russian manufacturer of this competition is somehow inadvertently knocked out. An eloquent example: hypermarket trading network. I went to buy a gift for a child. Gift - a doll (price tag made in China). Well, oh well, I think what to do if our Piggy with Stepashki are more expensive in 4 times. I saw a bottle of soap bubbles on the shelf. I decided: buy what is called, as a supplement. The label itself on the bottle is bright, colorful with Russian inscription “Soap bubbles”, and the producer is Italy ...
So here it is, it turns out where the dog competition is buried. For our children and for our finances, the Chinese are now struggling with the Italians, and we need to make our choice, which economy to support: the EU economy or the Middle Kingdom? .. Our support is too expensive ... And while this trend continues, any a jump in prices on the world market (at least for oil, at least for gold, even for radish) will be like a big bang on the head.
Analytical program "However" with Mikhail Leontyev, 18 April 2013
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