"It will be enough!"
No sooner had the fanfare died down about the fact that the Tajik authorities allowed Russia to extend the tenure of the 201 military base in the republic from 2014 to 2042, we didn’t have time to rejoice at how friendly the curtsy towards the Russian Federation beckoned from the fraternal Dushanbe, the message that crumpled our turbulent emotions. It turned out that the Tajik parliament, you understand, cannot ratify the agreement with Russia on the extension of the terms of stay of the Russian military base in the Pamirs. What does the Tajik parliamentarians interfere with? Perhaps the Pamir radiant sun baked their heads, or the smell of burning Afghan plantations clouded the mind ... But no! Official Dushanbe states that the reasons for delaying the ratification procedures lie in the fact that initially the Tajik authorities simply miscalculated. Representatives of the Tajik political elites, as they today believe, during their talks with guests from Moscow, asked these same guests too few preferences for the base for about 30 years to operate in the territory of the Republic of Tajikistan (RT). Little, and that's it ...
What then did the official Dushanbe request? We give this list in this material. First, Mr. Rakhmon wanted Russia to introduce a preferential regime for Tajik migrant workers. Commenting on this demand, one can say: well, until the meeting of the presidents of the two countries, the regime of Tajik citizens crossing the Russian border was, to put it mildly, not burdensome. And given that during the year Tajik migrant workers transfer about 3,5-3,8 billions of dollars from Russia to Russia, which is up to 45% of Tajikistan’s GDP, it’s more than strange to put forward any additional requirements. However, the Russian authorities decided to meet them and told Rakhmon their “yes” - yes, a preferential treatment for migrants from Tajikistan.
Secondly, Dushanbe requested from Russia to abolish export duties on the import of energy into the Republic of Tajikistan. On this occasion, the relevant agreements were signed. The process of final agreement on this issue began in the first decade of March 2013. And at this moment an amazing incident manifested itself. The fact is that the Russian side was already ready to lift export duties for the “fraternal” republic, as it suddenly turned out that Tajik lawmakers themselves did not lift a finger in order for energy resources from Russia to come to Tajikistan without duties. At the same time, they say in Dushanbe that they are waiting for the first step from the Russian authorities ... They say that you will remove the duties and start the delivery, and we'll figure it out somehow. However, in Moscow, there were not unreasonable suspicions that there were simply certain (quite influential) forces in Tajikistan that would simply be unprofitable for the removal of Russian export duties on energy supplies.
Indirect evidence that taking legislative decisions on duty-free energy trading is not profitable for some people in Tajikistan can be eloquent figures. Russia, expecting that Dushanbe will finally deal with the documents relating to the import of Russian hydrocarbons, reduced supplies. One of the transport reports says that in February 2013 of the year, not a single ton of gasoline reached Tajikistan by rail. Moreover, in January only about 9 thousand tons of fuel were imported into this Central Asian republic. Only from this no shortage of gasoline in Tajikistan was found. It turns out that either the Tajiks secretly established deliveries of petroleum products from some other countries, either there are fuel reserves in Tajikistan, or there is a banal smuggling of fuel to which people can be involved in both Tajikistan and Russia. Judging by the reports of the official authorities of Tajikistan, both the first and second options are excluded ... So, the third option is working, which explains why the republic does not officially come with fuel, but this does not test Tajikistan for deficiencies ... Apparently, someone just decided that if there are no export duties, then there is no official fuel traffic ... And there is plenty of unofficial traffic.
Of course, if the customs service of Tajikistan wants to establish the sources of illegal import of fuel into the country, it is quite simple, but the customs officers of Tatarstan keep quiet, Mr. Rakhmon doesn’t look particularly upset about this either. Why did it happen?..
In general, as you can see, one of the previous initiatives of cooperation between Russia and Tajikistan was a little choked up, but this did not prevent official Dushanbe from setting new conditions. In the middle of the week it became known that the Tajik parliament would ratify the agreement on extending the 201-th military base of the Russian Federation in the Republic of Tajikistan tomorrow, if only Moscow finances Tajik hydropower industry and invests the next millions of dollars for the modernization of the Tajik army.
But the most interesting thing is that Tajikistan has already demanded something similar from Russia. There were words about the development of hydropower in the republic, and about the modernization of the Tajik army. Now it seemed to the authorities of the Republic of Tajikistan that they had made a bit of bad bargaining, and they decided to demand the new financial resources from those 200 millions of dollars from Russia, which were discussed several months ago. Like, you want a base - give money. More and more money. Give - maybe the agreement and ratify, but not give ...
It is not known what Mr. Rakhmon calls these things, but actually this interaction option has a criminal procedure definition, which can be described by the term “extortion”, moreover, extortion at the state level, as well as in especially large amounts.
And now the main question is whether Russia will bite again on this Tajik bait. If Tajikistan receives further preferences, this Rakhmon blackmail can go on and on. Everything is very simple: it is only for the victim to fulfill the requirements of the extortionists, how these requirements will be repeated again, perhaps in large volumes.
And now we can look at the situation with what will actually happen if the Russian leadership gathers the political will into a fist and says: “Enough!” Let's think who this “pretty!” Russian will be worse for. Let us assume that it will certainly be worse for Russia - the Tajik president will take it himself and bring the Russian servicemen outside the Republic of Tatarstan ... But only to do that in a situation that exists today in Tajikistan can only be completely insane. In the case of the withdrawal of the Russian 201-th military base from Tajikistan, this state turns into a tasty morsel for a large redistribution. And the first blow, to the fortuneteller does not need to go, will be inflicted on the current Tajik authorities and first of all on President Emomali Rahmon. Or, perhaps, the Tajik leader thinks that American defenders of democracy will come to the place of the Russian military in RT? They may come, but it’s not a fact that after their arrival, Emomali Sharipovich will keep his soft presidency ... And it’s not at all that a bloody civil war, extinguished with the help of Russian soldiers, will not resume after the arrival of the main democratizers.
It turns out that Mr. Rahmon, hiding behind the Tajik parliament, is playing with fire today. Hurry he would have, perhaps, decided to "lope hang in grams." I would decide - Russia would take into account its needs, and the matter would, you see, be moved from the dead point. But Emomali Sharipovich, in all likelihood, wants to take advantage of the Russian interest constantly - day after day, looking for new reasons for outright state blackmail.
It remains to be hoped that politicians will be found in Moscow, which the Tajik leadership will literally explain with their fingers that endless bargaining with unilateral demands usually does not lead to anything good. And if it does, it’s not at all for the side that has started such a dubious trade.
““ It won't be enough! ”- a phrase and a frame from the cartoon“ Last year’s snow fell ”
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