The first deputy chairman of the board of VTB compared the situation in the Russian economy with the physical “Dzhanibekov effect” in space

The Russian economy, after the introduction of unprecedented sanctions by the West, continues to surprise many experts. Despite all the negative factors, it is showing steady growth.

Moreover, the latter is proceeding at an accelerated pace, which makes our economy “overheated” (a state when explosive economic growth has absorbed all public and private resources, which can lead to the onset of a recession).

The above-mentioned situation was commented on during an interview by the first deputy chairman of VTB, Dmitry Pyanov, comparing the phenomenon of the Russian economy with the “Dzhanibekov effect” in space. The latter was discovered by Soviet cosmonaut Vladimir Dzhanibekov in 1985, when a nut he unscrewed in orbit, without any external forces, changed the direction of its movement by 180 degrees, then flew the next 40 centimeters and again changed the direction of its movement without any signs of external forces.

According to the expert, the Russian economy today also continues to move due to the “inertia of the masses.” At the same time, the “cooling effect” in the form of a high discount rate had virtually no impact on this process.

As a result, according to Pyanov, the Central Bank should continue tightening monetary policy. However, as he put it, this will now be difficult to do against the backdrop of a large number of signals from the regulator that 16% is the upper limit after which easing will begin.

Also, the first deputy chairman of VTB added that seasonal inflation slowed only in regulated components. Industries without government regulation continue to experience double-digit price growth.

At the same time, as Pyanov put it, after the regulations are lifted, the situation with inflation will worsen in those sectors where it is declining today.

In general, according to the expert, the Central Bank is in an extremely difficult situation before tomorrow’s meeting.

Comments

[Vladimir Vladimirovich Vorontsov]

“The Russian economy, after the introduction of unprecedented sanctions by the West, continues to surprise many experts” -

- “You can’t understand Russia with your mind!” ...

[guest]

a state in which explosive economic growth has absorbed all public and private resources, which can lead to the onset of a recession

These, how would I call them censorship, at least believe in it themselves or are they just hanging this stuff on the ears of the people.

[alystan]

I have already written below that all this is very similar to preparing the population for the “forced increase in the lending rate by the Central Bank to save the country.” And the term recession, like a scarecrow for the average person, is used precisely for intimidation.

But seriously, there is one problem that neither Nabiulina nor this deputy head of VTB can think about. They really have no idea.

The point is that all bearing production in Russia was completely destroyed immediately after the collapse of the USSR, and it seems no one is going to restore it. And this is precisely the only detail on which, literally and figuratively, “the whole economy revolves.”

The Yankees know what they're doing. Among the so-called “dual-use goods,” the supply of which to Russia from all over the world is now carefully blocked by the United States, are bearings. And if the supply of (high-quality) bearings to the Russian Federation is completely cut off, then it is not difficult to guess that not only the entire industry will stop, but the whole country will stop. All the bearing factories that existed on the territory of Russia were destroyed at one time “to zero” by the enemies of the people, who were concerned with this in the first place.

[NW]

all bearing production in Russia was completely destroyed

Not yet. I judge from Vologda. The old and well-deserved VPZ is having a hard time. But he's alive. But new modern enterprises (VZSP) are emerging for the development and production of products in small series. The quality is high.

[alystan]

Well, if so. And the state should be more prompt in this matter. But Nabiulina is not asleep either, because...

And yet, modern enterprises require modern equipment. I’m afraid the capacity of the air processing plant and others will not be enough for the entire country. Some things still come from China, but the Chinese themselves purchase bearings from the world's leading manufacturers, since the level of local production is also insufficient to satisfy all their own needs. The rest of the planet isn't even worth talking about.

True, the Chinese are purchasing the most advanced equipment and everything will get better for them quickly. But there is absolutely no confidence that their high-quality products will come to Russia. “Secondary sanctions” turned out to be very painful even for the Celestial Empire, but the United States and the European Union are its main trading partners. After all, even Chinese banks are wary of working with Russian partners.

[NW]

Of course, there are problems with the equipment. In any case, the VZSP is encrypted.

[alystan]

There is probably no other way now.

[bayard]

Quote from N.W.

The old and well-deserved VPZ is having a hard time. But he's alive.

A few months ago I watched a report from an exhibition... A representative of the only bearing plant in the Russian Federation showed the products and told how they make them. Well... some of the products are simply packaged, and the other part is actually assembled, BUT (!) the balls for the bearings all (!!) come from China. They especially proudly said HOW carefully they searched, found, and are now checking batches of these balls... And not only balls.
And all the equipment of Soviet bearing factories was at one time bought by China... And in Ukraine too.
But a good bearing is not so easy to make...
So the goal of import substitution is clear.
But Manturov is a GREAT fellow.

[alystan]

There is also the Automobile Bearings Plant No. 1 (Dubna), which really specializes in the production of products for the automotive industry.

The essence of this company's business is frankly, according to the general director of Automobile Bearing Plant No. 1 LLC Sergei Nenadkevich:

We buy ring blanks and rolling elements in Southeast Asia. Even taking into account deliveries through the Cape of Good Hope, these products are cheaper than in the Russian Federation.

Soviet bearings were of the highest quality, produced in the billions and sold all over the planet. But in the past. The production was full cycle, the equipment was the best in the world, it was constantly being improved.

As an example, almost every grocery store had machines that made milkshakes. The shaft in these simple units rotated at a speed of 18 revolutions per minute. Even today, few companies in the world can make bearings with such characteristics.

The attitude of the Russian authorities towards these most important industrial components, without which any production is in principle impossible, very well reveals the essence of all the “charm” unplanned economy. And the future of the country as a whole. If there are no such plans, then there will be no bearings themselves. That is, nothing will happen.

Statistics also speak about this.
In 2000, more than 250 million bearings were produced in Russia, all of them entirely their own.
In 2010 - only 50 million pieces, purely Russian ones were still present.

And, as recently they began to pour into our ears the type “the USSR itself has overtaken and surpassed the production of this and that,” the Ministry of Industry and Trade, represented by Manturov himself, famously reported that at the end of 2023, the factories “produced” 37 million bearings, which is already 20,8% more than in 2022. Progress and all that... Without revealing the main thing, how many purely Russian products were there. But he probably understands them like a pig understands valuable tree species. And why does he need it, it’s not a lord’s business.

[bayard]

Quote: alystan

according to the general director of Automobile Bearing Plant No. 1 LLC Sergei Nenadkevich:

We buy ring blanks and rolling elements in Southeast Asia. Even taking into account deliveries through the Cape of Good Hope, these products are cheaper than in the Russian Federation.

That's what I saw in the report.
This miracle ministry of Manturov needs to be dispersed - department by department. Everyone should be given back the status of a sectoral ministry with a competent technician at its head. And let them plow. And for Manturov to cast a golden parachute, since “we don’t abandon our own,” or a cast iron one, if they still decide to abandon them.

[Yuras_Belarus]

What is the growth pattern? Military industry plus oil and gas again? This increase is due to rising prices. What about growth in manufacturing and agriculture?

[Mazunga]

Belarus will help with the bulba, and with wheat and milk, and we already have all sorts of dirty little cows grazing in the fields with meat, and excuse me, no pigs - because of the African plague, they killed them all and burned them, so a large producer of pigs can

[Vasilenko Vladimir]

the meat may be grazing, but for some reason there are no sausages in stores

[Vasilenko Vladimir]

minus player, can you name the type of sausage and the manufacturer of this product?
really interesting, I didn’t find a single sausage today

[Vasilenko Vladimir]

Did I understand correctly that there will be no answer?

[DrMad]

No pork? In Dagestan and Chechnya I agree.

[Vasilenko Vladimir]

Quote from DrMad

No pork?

Kaliningrad region, what is sold is not pork but g.., there is no lard, and the meat is a little softer than the sole, everything that the private owners had was destroyed 4 years ago, ASF, and what’s interesting is that they slaughtered pork from everyone except the office (Pravdinsky pig farm ( rbpi), the owner is a citizen of Holland) which was the source of ASF, they then even managed to infect the Far East

[DrMad]

The Kaliningrad region is not an indicator of all of Russia. Here in Siberia we have pretty decent pork. Either for grilling, or for shish kebab, chops, minced meat.

[Vasilenko Vladimir]

Quote from DrMad

Either for grilling, or for shish kebab, chops, minced meat.

can you speak for ALL of Siberia?
I’ll be honest, if the pork is from pig farms, then you’re lying; if it’s from private farmsteads or from a small farmer, then maybe

[DrMad]

Altai, Novosibirsk, Tomsk, Kuzbass. I can speak for these regions, otherwise the Kaliningrad region is much larger. It’s very difficult to buy a homemade one, even from us.

[Vasilenko Vladimir]

Quote from DrMad

It’s very difficult to buy a homemade one, even from us.

that is, excuse me, you don’t have NORMAL pork

[DrMad]

We have normal pork. Better tell us about yours.

[Vasilenko Vladimir]

if pork doesn’t have at least 4 cm of fat, then it’s not pork, and today’s compound feeds won’t make you fat

[Vasilenko Vladimir]

funny, backing track, AUUUU
refute my post about the Pravdinsky pig farm
for reference, I live in the same area, and when they burned the carcasses of dead pigs, I personally observed a column of smoke and felt the stench

[Doctor]

What is the growth pattern? Military industry plus oil and gas again? This increase is due to rising prices. What about growth in manufacturing and agriculture?

Production is growing by leaps and bounds. For some positions, 10-12 times.

https://dzen.ru/a/ZYnvOOID0yDRnYCq

Agriculture is also on the rise. By 2025, the cotton planting area in the Astrakhan region will reach 300 hectares.

https://a24.press/news/agronomy/2022-10-19/v-astrahanskoy-oblasti-vozrozhdaetsya-hlopkovodstvo-109183

[Yuras_Belarus]

I looked at your links. Both relate to the military industry: the first is the production of weapons, the second is cotton (which will then be used to produce gunpowder). I asked about industrial production and agriculture, that is, about civil production. Is there steady, non-seasonal growth there?

[Doctor]

I looked at your links. Both relate to the military industry: the first is the production of weapons, the second is cotton (which will then be used to produce gunpowder). I asked about industrial production and agriculture, that is, about civil production. Is there steady, non-seasonal growth there?

There is no problem beating swords into ploughshares. Where tanks were produced, after the SVO there will be tractors!
As for cotton, as stated in the development program of the Caspian Corporation scientific and technical progress, “The need to develop the project is caused by the current difficult situation in the textile and light industry.”
Pants, shirts, panties, bras again. How much can you buy in Belarus?

http://caspiy.6te.net/simple/index.php?page=q3-1

[Vasilenko Vladimir]

Quote: Arzt

The need to develop the project is caused by the difficult situation in the textile and light industry

then this is either money laundering or illiterate use of it

Quote: Arzt

Pants, shirts, panties, bras again. How much can you buy in Belarus?

I understand that you don’t understand what you’re writing about at all, don’t specify where in the Republic of Belarus cotton plantings are observed?!!!

[Doctor]

Quote: Arzt
The need to develop the project is caused by the difficult situation in the textile and light industry

then this is either money laundering or illiterate use of it
Quote: Arzt
Pants, shirts, panties, bras again. How much can you buy in Belarus?

I understand that you don’t understand what you’re writing about at all, don’t specify where in the Republic of Belarus cotton plantings are observed?!!!

Vladimir, this is sarcasm. The stump is clear, growth is rushing at the expense of the military-industrial complex.

It’s also clear with cotton, all from Central Asia. For full dollars. Hence our love for Tajiks.

[hector]

Quote: Arzt

There is no problem beating swords into ploughshares. Where tanks were produced, after the SVO there will be tractors!

Oh well. and during the SVO, tractors and other civilian products are not needed? They transport, plow probably in tanks, fly around the country in strategists, calculate exclusively on ballistic calculators, etc., etc.?

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Arzt

https://dzen.ru/a/ZYnvOOID0yDRnYCq

It's about the military-industrial complex

[Doctor]

It's about the military-industrial complex

Who cares. GDP counts everything. The main thing is growth!

[Vasilenko Vladimir]

Quote: Arzt

Agriculture is also on the rise.

Excuse me please, but which one?!!!
no, I don’t even see one of those considerations: I don’t see a diva on earth and I don’t see much growth, I don’t see this in the store

Quote: Arzt

By 2025, the cotton planting area in the Astrakhan region will reach 300 hectares.

the main issue is the quality of raw materials; as a rule, in such regions they are simply rotten

[Vasilenko Vladimir]

funny, minus player, do you really think that in Astrakhan there can be normal cotton for the light industry?!

[alystan]

There seems to be talk about an imminent shortage of funds. Even with the already very high lending rate of 16%. It seems that this pepper talks even worse than Nabiulina, regretting that she can no longer exceed the ceiling set at 16%. Either he wants to go to work for her, or this is already preparing public opinion for a forced increase in the lending percentage, hiding behind the “thought of saving the Russian economy.”

[Mazunga]

with such a face and the deputy chairman of the board of practically a state bank))) oh vey, I wouldn’t trust him with my pig piggy bank))) here they were somehow indignant that the Americans and Europeans laid their paw on our assets)) and who cockroached them there? People with approximately the same faces and positions)))

[geor.tcherniaev]

Judging by the photo, he is watching the flight of the economy

[isv000]

The Russian economy, after the introduction of unprecedented sanctions by the West, continues to surprise many experts. Despite all the negative factors, it is showing steady growth.

When a Russian is beaten, at first he misses the blows, then he shakes himself, concentrates and begins to notice where and how he arrives and, noticing, begins to thrash in response. So it is here: the stupid West follows the same pattern, which is why it crashes over and over again, while Russia, having learned its lesson, begins to put itself in order and moves on to a new stage of development, but without the West. In short, they beat us and we get stronger!

[Trapp1st]

which could lead to the start of a recession

It's a matter of time and oil prices.

[Vasilenko Vladimir]

when the nut he unscrewed in orbit, without any external forces, changed the direction of its movement by 180 degrees, then flew the next 40 centimeters and again changed the direction of its movement without any signs of external forces.

In general, the nut did not change the direction of movement, it changed its position in space, turning 180 degrees, and continued to fly in the same direction

[pexotinec]

Prices are hitting the top, and they are enjoying the growth of the economy. In their understanding, probably when prices rise, so does the economy And inflation keeps hitting. They seem to have growth only on paper. Money is depreciating at a faster rate than before, foreign currency has been growing and growing. What is the growth????

[Ross xnumx]

Quote: pexotinec

What is the growth????

The price of eggs has risen by 5 rubles - by Easter it should be...

[Roman_vh]

And when it was different. Or was it Putin who kicked the traders' pants?

[Ross xnumx]

Quote: Roman_VH

Or was it Putin who kicked the traders' pants?

I see that he opened the “fifth envelope” and put it on everything and everyone...

[Roman_vh]

Well, what is incumbent on us has long been known. But five rubles plus on eggs for Easter is not an initiative of the authorities, alas.
PS And the fifth envelope, I’m sorry, what is it?

[Ross xnumx]

In general, according to the expert, the Central Bank is in an extremely difficult situation before tomorrow’s meeting.

It is we who are put in a difficult position by the head of the Central Bank, who continues to spread rot on the economy and finances of Russia.

[Soldatov V.]

There is a good Western television series "Bad Banks", where the whole truth about capitalist banks is there. They're still vipers. In general, banks do not think about people, but pray to the Golden Calf.

[BonchB]

By trying to keep inflation at a high interest rate, they only suffocate the economy. This is the most primitive and harmful way of regulation, especially in the long term. This approach leads to an artificial cash starvation of enterprises and the passivity of capital, which settles on deposits. And this is not to mention such things as prohibitively unaffordable mortgages, etc.

[Ivan Ivanov]

Well, yes, money can be spent on deposits, but how can we develop the economy with this rate? Demand for the product is essentially deferred.

[NW]

This is a greatly simplified view. Firstly, the high rate is a social measure. Secondly, it supports consumer demand. Thirdly, it still fulfills the task of slowing down inflation. And targeted government injections are being made into key sectors of the economy. A lot of groundwork has been created for the future.

[Ivan Ivanov]

I don't quite understand what the problem is, the reason for the overheating?
1 Has solvency increased sharply?
2. Are there any shortages of products due to the departure of “partners”?
3. Points 1 and 2 combined?

[Adrey]

Yes, everything is fine. Many here advocated: “Everything for the front, everything for victory.” It's time to reap the results. And “it’s not evening yet.”
I’m raking in the minuses now, apparently countless

[zloybond]

Pyanov was probably trying to say something smart, but as always he proudly and importantly said: puff!!!
A set of smart words for the sake of bragging about the lack of intelligence.

[nordscout]

Listen to the financial and economic mantras and analyzes of Mikhail Leonidovich Khazin and you will be happy... Sleep will improve, blood pressure will stabilize, “stool” and acid-base balance will normalize... Otherwise you’ve found someone to listen to... In the photo - “cunning” from the banking analytical "get-together"....

[Aleksandr58]

Somehow the bankers started playing virtual financial games. Although, as I remember, the Central Bank allocated money to banks precisely to boost the economy and industry. They don’t want to answer for fraud?