Training before war: NATO escalates the situation in the Suwalki Gap
Where it is thin, there it is torn
Corridors are all the rage right now. Of particular concern is the Zangezur corridor, which Azerbaijan very much wants to lead through the territory of Armenia to its exclave of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. The Armenian leadership, of course, is not satisfied with this option - Pashinyan declares a violation of the sovereignty of the republic. This disagreement has not yet led to a war between Baku and Yerevan, but it does not contribute to the improvement of relations either.
The toponym Suwalki Corridor sounds even more resonant - the real concentration of the fears of the NATO bloc. As during the time of Berlin’s “Checkpoint Charlie,” the potential enemy pulled considerable forces toward the corridor.
From open sources it is known that 40 thousand military personnel from the NATO rapid reaction force are located nearby. Fears of Russian armor forced the Polish 14th Anti-Tank Regiment, armed with Israeli Spike, to be kept near the Suwalki corridor.
Also in the game are more than one and a half thousand soldiers from a mixed American-Polish-British armored group stationed near the towns of Orzysz and Bemowo Piske. On the Lithuanian side, near the town of Ruklu, about two thousand military personnel from Germany, the Czech Republic, Norway and the Netherlands are stationed. And of course, the mechanized infantry brigade “Iron Wolf” is the largest combat unit of the Lithuanian army. No matter how funny it may sound.
The legend from Brussels about a possible situation in the Suwalki corridor is as follows.
Russia, inspired by victories in Ukraine, will decide to seriously worsen relations with the NATO bloc. With one jerk, the Russian Army overcomes a corridor only 100 kilometers long and blocks the Baltic countries. At the same time, a naval landing force lands on the island of Gotland, which logically completes the blockade of our sworn friends in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
NATO analysts even assessed the course of the fighting, noting that the terrain was inconvenient for offensive operations and at the same time successful for the defenders. But even in such an advantageous position, the Europeans’ fears have not gone away - now they are worried that if the Russians occupy the corridor, it will not be easy to knock them out.
NATO military officials believe that there is no question of any occupation of the former republics of the USSR - the Kremlin simply needs to assert leadership in the region and finally discredit the North Atlantic Alliance.
The scenario is as fantastic as it is real, but with a small caveat. Russia may be forced to take such tough steps. For example, an attempt to block transit to the Kaliningrad region through the Baltic states.
Which, in fact, is what Lithuania is currently doing, hindering the movement of trains in every possible way. At first they tried to limit the transport of sanctioned goods, and now they are making it as difficult as possible to pay for transit from Russian banks. The purpose of such movements does not have any military or political expediency, but is only subordinated to the desire to worsen the quality of life of Kaliningrad residents as much as possible.
But recently, events around the Suwalki corridor have been developing according to a new scenario, in which NATO is trying on the role of an aggressor.
"Defense" of the Suwalki corridor
Recently, the Baltic states have literally been mired in NATO exercises. This is happening at a time when, geopolitically, the Suwalki corridor has somewhat lost its significance for the alliance. With Sweden's entry into the alliance, it became easier to control the Baltic Sea, which means that the corridor ceased to be a thin place on the map of Europe.
But the potential enemy’s attention, on the contrary, only intensified. On April 21, the Brave Griffin exercises started in the Alytus, Lazdiyai and Varena regions of Lithuania, in which more than one and a half thousand NATO troops, and with them about two hundred armored vehicles, took part. Poles, Lithuanians, Americans and Portuguese will learn to fight Russia.
Brave Griffin is not an isolated event. The exercises open a whole series of maneuvers - Saber Strike, Grand Quadriga, Immediate Response and others. In total, more than ten events are expected, some of which will take place in parallel to each other.
The common name for NATO military games is Steadfast Defender-24. All of them, to one degree or another, relate to the security of the Suwalki corridor. Of course, to security - in the understanding of alliance activists.
Events unfold in accordance with the Orsha strategic plan, about which little is known. It was adopted in 2022 on the wave of anti-Russian hysteria, and the main figures in it are Polish and Lithuanian troops. If the nuances of “Orsha” are unknown, then there is no need to talk about any defensive nature - NATO is hatching plans for a blockade of the Kaliningrad region. And that's the minimum.
The occupation of the Russian exclave is considered as a maximum bonus. The hope, obviously, is for the “weakening” of the Russian Army and the reluctance of the military-political leadership to aggravate relations with the enemy to the point of direct war.
However, besides such suicidal thoughts, there are also alternative options for events.
The most harmless scenario involves a gradual build-up of hysteria in the region. NATO needs to visualize the enemy in the public eye, and the myth of the Suwalki Gap strike is perfect for this. On the one hand, “we came in peace and don’t want war,” on the other, “look what insidious plans the Russians are preparing.”
By moving large masses of equipment and personnel to the corridor, NATO is only increasing its military presence on the border of Russia and Belarus. This cannot be explained by anything other than preparation for war.
The problem of the Suwalki corridor will be discussed for a very long time, thus allowing the concept of strategic containment of Russia to be worked out, which, according to Brussels and Washington, is certainly seeking to spread its influence as far to the west as possible.
Lithuania is becoming particularly hysterical. During the Thunder Strike maneuvers, the military will not only practice the war with Russia, but will also involve the civilian population in the games. Local generals warn:
“10 thousand people from the active reserve will receive draft notices, 2,5 thousand will be mobilized for preparation, another 2 thousand will have to appear for personal data verification. Over 4 thousand active military personnel, as well as members of the Riflemen Union and representatives of local authorities, will also take part in the exercises.”
From April 22 to May 10, during the largest maneuvers in the last ten years, Lithuania will live under the laws of actual wartime.
Or another example.
Purely “defensive” exercises Brave Griffin include, in particular, the landing of combat units, rapid movements of large formations and landing.
If this is not preparation for an attack, then what is?
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