If a friend suddenly turns up... Stop hoping for the nobility of other countries
It is quite strange for me that we are only now talking about the anti-Russian actions of neighboring Kazakhstan.
On the one hand, it is clear that we do not want to offend our neighbors. We hope that the brain will turn on, and the example of our other neighbors will show us the right path to the prosperity of the country.
On the other hand, I know the mentality of the Kazakhs very well, I live side by side with them. Strength is respected there. If you are strong and able to stand up for yourself, you will always be respected. I don't know why this happened. Probably because Kazakhs have always lived separately, with their own families. They relied only on themselves. Respect for strength is there at the level historical memory.
When there was a coup attempt and Russia showed strength, we were respected. But when we allow our neighbors to treat us as equals, to demand something from us, we lose this respect. For the first time I realized that they stopped respecting us back in the days of Nursultan Nazarbayev. It was then, in 2017, that a car with Latin license plates parked in my yard for the first time... I still remember the argument of the Kazakh president: “All the advanced countries of the world use the Latin alphabet, so it is advisable for Kazakhstan to switch to the Latin alphabet.”
Even then it became clear that another danger had appeared nearby. It is clear not only to me, but to those who are entrusted with the responsibility of monitoring the security of the country. We have our own border detachment! If before neither Russians nor Kazakhs considered border villages and cities to be foreign countries, now suddenly it turns out...
Those who are forced to travel by train from Russia to Russia through a piece of Kazakhstan are especially lucky. A very small area abroad. The train stops for just an hour before entering Kazakhstan, an hour in Petropavlovsk, and an hour again at the entrance to Russia. And all this time you need to sit in the carriage, as border guards and customs officers are working...
Do you know when it finally became clear to me personally that the border guards were right in blocking our border? Exactly when the Kazakh president in 2022 refused to accept the Russian Order of Alexander Nevsky, which they wanted to award him for the development of cooperation between our countries.
Remember Dmitry Peskov's clumsy excuses? “We didn’t want...” Well, yes... Only then did the press service of the Kazakh president confirm the refusal of the order. Moscow was set up very ugly. And nothing, got away with it. Just like the statement of the president of a “union” state regarding sanctions: it is better to have honest enemies than such “allies.” Remember:
“Sanctions are sanctions, we should not violate them, especially since we receive notifications that in case of violation of sanctions, so-called secondary sanctions from the West will follow in relation to our economy.”
This 2022. When we really needed the support of our neighbors... But I was especially struck then by Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s position on Lugansk and Donetsk. He expressed it in an interview with the Rossiya 24 TV channel: “...And, apparently, this principle will be applied to quasi-state territories, which, in our opinion, are Lugansk and Donetsk.”
And we all hoped... Even when they openly told us that Kazakhstan didn’t care about our interests. Even when Tokayev started talking about “the return of (allegedly) illegally privatized state assets.” First of all, the Baikonur Cosmodrome and other objects of (once) Union significance.
If a friend is suddenly ...
It is clear that the Russian leadership perfectly understood and understands the duplicity of the Kazakh president. That is why we went to huge expense and built the Vostochny cosmodrome. The appetites of the Kazakhs, especially since Russia had no alternative to Baikonur, grew exponentially. As is arrogance.
Ultimately, an understanding came of the fact that “slippery” Kazakhstan threatens Russia’s defense capability. Yes, no more and no less. No, the army or security forces have nothing to do with it. But the fact that the country at any moment can simply close the railway through Petropavlovsk and actually “halve” the flow of goods to the east of Russia is serious. The northern route through Tyumen is not able to meet the needs completely.
Alas, when the Trans-Siberian Railway was built, it was an inland railway. Hence there are two problems that have not yet been resolved. I wrote above about the first, southern branch through the neighboring country. But the second one is almost never voiced. This is... Omsk! Today it is impossible to deliver anything to the east of Russia without passing this city. Accordingly, in the event of an emergency, the destruction of the railway station will block the entire highway.
I think there is no point in developing this topic further. Even a schoolchild can come up with a solution to a problem. It is necessary to build at least a backup road. At the same time, if possible, it is necessary to bypass Omsk. And this is quite technically difficult and expensive. Western Siberia is a very geographically complex region. Swamps...
So that the reader does not form a false opinion about the author, I will say that thoughts about defense capability, as well as about the construction of a railway backup, have been voiced for a long time. Moreover, at the beginning of the century, Russian Railways carried out an examination and assessment of this project.
Alas, at that time we simply did not have the announced amount of funds. 140 billion rubles according to 2007 estimates! As often happens in such cases, the project was postponed to the future, that is, included in the Transport Strategy for the period until 2030.
There was even an attempt to build it in parts. Simply put, part of the funds was allocated in 2009, but... This method of construction did not justify itself. It turned out to be even more expensive than stated in the Russian Railways estimate. The money was spent, but instead of construction, it was spent on repairing existing tracks...
In 2018, the project was remembered again. By this time, two more projects had appeared. More precisely, they remembered old projects. In particular, the northern backup Tatarsk - Tara - Tobolsk - Tavda. For me personally, this project is the most promising. It’s somehow calmer away from “friends”. And it is necessary to develop the Siberian swamps... In any case, I am sure of this, construction will begin soon.
So, an inadequate neighbor, whom we helped and are helping, ultimately makes us think about safety. And it turns out to be a completely illogical situation. We spend money that we could invest in the economy of the same neighbor on defense. Who benefited from this? Us? Maybe. Kazakhstan? Doubtful...
The bitter realization that friendship between states is just a fiction
How many times have we been burned by the fact that our former “bosom friends” betrayed us. And those that were once close, from the republics of the USSR, and those that were further away, from the Department of Internal Affairs. Each time after such a betrayal, we remembered the Emperor and his words about Russia’s allies. Each time they complained about their naivety and soft heart.
But we ourselves are to blame. What, we don’t see President Tokayev’s readiness to betray? Don’t we see the duplicity of the Armenian prime minister?
We see it, but we continue to wait for them to come to their senses and understand something. They won’t come to their senses, they won’t understand.
If they come to their senses, it will only be when they find themselves in a mess similar to the one the Ukrainians got into. And they will, again, out of a long-acquired habit, blame us for everything...
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