And if after us - even a flood
The President of the Military Brotherhood, Chairman of the Party for Justice, Vladimir Sidorovich Ponomarenko, and Doctor of Geographical Sciences, full member of the Academy of Water Sciences of the Russian Federation, Professor Alexey Alekseevich Belyakov, talk about the problems associated with catastrophic floods in Russia.
V. S. Ponomarenko: As I understand it, the total damage from the current water disasters will be enormous, it can amount to tens, if not hundreds of billions of rubles. I think that after the appropriate investigation, the perpetrators will be punished, but the question remains how, in principle, this could happen.
A. A. Belyakov: Yes, it is clear that during the construction and operation of protective dams in the Urals there were all sorts of “violations.” Perhaps the “culprits” will be found. And as always – “switchmen”.
Meanwhile, the system of design standards itself is to blame, according to which such structures are designed for the probability of exceeding the flow rate of water flowing in the river by 1%. Roughly, not mathematically speaking, this corresponds to a repeatability of 1 time in 100 years.
But dams, depending on the degree of their responsibility, we must design for a probability of 0,5%, 0,1%, and even check, for example, for the passage of a flood of 0,01% of the probability. Once every 1 thousand years. Why there is such a difference - I don’t know. Yes, “protective” dams are cheap for the treasury, but what losses do the population “protected” by them then incur, and who should compensate for these losses?
V. S. Ponomarenko: But, probably, when building dams, we proceeded from the funds and capabilities available at that time?
A. A. Belyakov: I will express a thought that seems paradoxical at first glance. It is better not to build any dams than to build them the way they are being built here. This was clearly demonstrated by the flood in Kuban in 2022, when the broken dam became, as it were, a “dam” on the reverse, rear side, forming a reservoir bowl with a level 4–5 meters higher than the Krasnodar reservoir.
So populated areas, farmland, and roads were flooded. The water stood for more than a month - until a hole was dug in the dam, through which water flowed into the Krasnodar reservoir. And in general, whenever, due to a dam break or overflow over its crest, water enters the space behind the dam “protected” by it, this water has to be pumped out after the flood subsides.
V. S. Ponomarenko: Does it look like a hopeless situation? But we cannot leave people alone with the elements running wild.
A. A. Belyakov: Nobody poses the question like that. We just need to fight not the consequences of floods, but eliminate their cause. It is obvious - the lack of river flow regulation in our country. And it is carried out by reservoirs, of which there is an acute shortage in the country, and to overcome it it is necessary to build dams on the rivers...
V. S. Ponomarenko: But there are two significant reservoirs in the Urals...
A. A. Belyakov: Yes, in the very upper reaches, Magnitogorskoye and Iriklinskoye. They obviously could not accumulate flood runoff; it formed below. But this situation is not only with the Urals; a huge number of territories in the basins of other Russian rivers are in flood zones. The current flood and the colossal losses from it are just an episode in a whole series of annual similar cases.
At the same time, it must be understood that river flow management is at the same time a solution to problems related to navigation, land irrigation, and water supply to the population and economy.
In the Ural River, the annual flow in years with little snow is tens of times less than what we see now. In general, here in the southern Urals, river floods account for 85, 9 and even 95 percent of the annual flow, and it passes in 2–3 weeks. The rest of the time there is almost no water in the rivers here, and its quality is poor. The region is water-scarce.
Can you imagine how everything could change if there were cascades of reservoirs on the rivers here?!
V. S. Ponomarenko: What is foreign practice in this area? How does Russia look against this background?
A. A. Belyakov: Looks embarrassing. We are the owners of huge volumes of fresh water flowing in rivers, but our attitude towards this wealth is both careless and stupid, and as a result, instead of benefit, we receive disasters from the rampant water elements.
River flow is regulated by reservoirs. Reservoirs are most often formed by dams.
It is impossible to take into account all the dams in the world, and this is not necessary. A special international commission strictly takes into account “large” dams - usually dams with a height of more than 15 meters. There are more than 25 thousand such dams in China. In the USA there are approximately 9,5 thousand. In tiny Japan - 3,5 thousand. In India - about 5 thousand. In the Russian Federation - 69 pieces. Not thousands, and not hundreds, but pieces.
V. S. Ponomarenko: Yes, impressive. And it's depressing. But perhaps the whole point is a lack of funds?
A. A. Belyakov: No. It’s just that in recent decades the country has been living in temporary workers mode - “after us there’s even a flood.” In addition, since the late 1950s, the country has had a strict taboo for the construction of dams and reservoirs. It is irresistible, but also convenient: it is easier and more profitable for someone to build “protective” dams at the expense of the state and the population, enriching themselves and their relatives, and report to their superiors about the care they have taken for the population.
And looking 5–10–50 years ahead is apparently not smart. And the state’s water policy should look even further. Remembering, by the way, that low-water and high-water years are grouped together. And after a flood that repeats once every 100 years, the next one of the same kind may not have to wait long. He will come.
Regarding financial issues, it is important to emphasize that dams and reservoirs are the basis for the use of water energy. More precisely, dams should be built in conjunction with hydroelectric power plants.
And if the construction of dams and reservoirs is a cost, then hydroelectric power stations can generate income: the water released from the reservoir can (and should!) generate kilowatt-hours convertible into cash. And this energy is free, because you don’t need to buy fuel to get it.
Now the cost of electricity is a “trade secret” covering the robbery of the state and the population. But in the mid-1980s. the cost of electricity production at hydroelectric power plants was an order of magnitude lower than at thermal power plants.
V. S. Ponomarenko: But still: where to get the money for this? Our domestic capitalists will not give it, give them profit this minute, but here, as I understand it, it will have to wait for years, if not decades.
A. A. Belyakov: And you don’t need to count on them. We need to start by changing the approach itself, the very state policy in this area.
We need a state program for the comprehensive reconstruction of rivers. The rivers must become cascades, forming a system of deep waterways, providing the population and economic activity with high-quality water at the right time and in the right quantity, sending floods into the realm of legends.
And at every dam there is a hydroelectric power station. Their work would actually save fuel from burning. And the electricity from these hydroelectric power stations could be supplied to the population for household (not commercial!) needs completely free of charge.
And this would provide a breakthrough in the country’s socio-economic development, which it so badly needs now.
V. S. Ponomarenko: In essence, we are talking about a national project...
A. A. Belyakov: Yes, and, in my opinion, it is much more important than some kind of “digital economy” or some kind of “car roads”. A general program for the regulation, use and protection of waters of the Russian Federation should be adopted as a state law, defining the ultimate goal of the state in this area and the sequence of its achievement.
And the main component of the program should be the stage-by-stage reconstruction of the rivers of the Russian Federation into cascades of reservoirs for complex purposes. Easier than steamed turnips!
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