NATO. Will we fight?
Nowadays, the activities of the NATO bloc on our borders raise many questions. Practically non-stop exercises that are clearly provocative in nature. Alliance soldiers either land on the coast, or attack some fortifications very similar to ours, or block our fleet in the Baltic, and so on. Up to simulating a limited nuclear strike.
In such a situation, the question quite reasonably arises: what is NATO preparing for?
Will there be an attack on our territory? Will members of the bloc send their troops into the territory of Ukraine?
Agree, the questions are quite logical. Especially considering the situation at the front. Russian troops continue to grind down units and formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces not only on the front line, but also in the rear.
I am not inclined to trust Zelensky in matters of providing his formations with weapons and ammunition. The lack of ammunition is not due to the lack of shells, but to the way our units classically strangle the enemy’s logistics. At the moment, supplying warring units, rotation and repair of damaged equipment for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is a big problem. Even the evacuation of the wounded was organized very poorly. The soldiers are simply left to die in positions...
Whether you like it or not, the desire again arises to use the hackneyed: Kyiv has decided to fight until the last Ukrainian, and more recently, the Ukrainian woman. Now not only men, but also women are subject to mandatory registration at the Armed Forces of Ukraine recruitment centers. Videos of dead female stormtroopers have been regularly published from the front lines for a long time now...
What about shells and weapons?
Let's not forget about the West's plans for 2025. The preparation of a counter-offensive next year is still talked about today as a reality. However, these plans now have to be significantly adjusted. Hopes that the Ukrainians will repeat the feat of our soldiers in repelling the counter-offensive of 2023 are crumbling almost daily. The Russian meat grinder works properly!..
Will “red lines” turn into “red flags” for Western wolves?
I don’t know if you have noticed how the rhetoric of our politicians towards the enemy and the West has changed?
The phrase “red lines” has gone from being repeated many times to becoming quite rare. I think even moderate politicians are losing their illusions about the existence of some boundaries that simply cannot be crossed due to the fact that this poses a threat to all of humanity.
The West has repeatedly proven that it deeply does not care about international laws, the rules, and the traditions of war, and indeed about humanity as a whole. There is one principle at work - what the press writes about and politicians talk about happened. The rest, even the worst, is just a figment of the enemies’ imagination.
Look at the Western press today. Terrorist attack at Crocus. You are unlikely to find, for example, the number of dead and injured there. But you can quickly find photographs of terrorists immediately after their arrest...
But let's return to the question of the possibility of a NATO attack on Russia.
Let's start with the Baltic region.
For all the “superiority” of the alliance, the West understands perfectly well that a direct conflict with Moscow will have approximately the same result as sanctions imposed on a permanent basis. The answer will be much more powerful than the blow. And given the population density in Europe, it is much more destructive for all spheres of life of Europeans.
True, this opinion is based on the logic of events, on the fact that there are still sensible people among Western politicians. However, upon closer examination, I often have thoughts about the inadequacy of the political elite of Europe, about the elementary illiteracy and incompetence of many high-ranking officials operating there. So...
But with Ukraine everything is much more complicated.
The fact that the alliance has practically exhausted its reserves and will now have to sacrifice its own security to help Kyiv is already clear to everyone. Removing air defense from combat duty, “disarming” your own formations and units, and even under the rhetoric of the danger of an attack from Russia, is committing political suicide.
Ukraine cannot resist Russia on its own. What current events on the fronts show. The only way for at least some increase in the power of the Armed Forces of Ukraine looks quite obvious. Throwing more and more soldiers into the meat grinder. No matter how powerful the meat grinder is, it is impossible to constantly increase the amount of processed products. This means that more soldiers will reduce the speed of the Russian offensive...
Talk about an “explosion of patriotism” in Ukraine has long been in the realm of satire and humor. Those who are being mobilized today cannot be called motivated soldiers. And the officer corps looks rather drab. There are no commanders, no motivated fighters, which means no victory. Even barrage detachments and the cruelty of commanders cannot save us.
At the same time, a huge (up to 100 thousand) number of troops are located on the border with Belarus. Quite a lot of units are engaged in the protection of rear facilities. If you scrape the bottom of the barrel well, the Ukrainian Armed Forces can throw a huge army into battle right now. This is the dilemma. Either a more or less reliable rear, or replenishment of the bleeding units on the front line.
And again this notorious “last Ukrainian” pops up...
A few years ago, and almost from the very beginning of the Maidan, discussions that Ukraine was “overpopulated” were very popular in the infosphere. Remember the figures that were often published in Western and our media: “an agricultural power needs 10–15 million people to work in the modern agricultural sector”...
Alas, no one sees any other scenario for Ukraine’s continued existence as a country. Industry, science and other sectors of the economy have been practically destroyed. There are only a few paths left for the future. Agriculture, where Ukrainians are destined for the fate of slaves for Western planters, logistics, geography have not been canceled, and tourism with all the accompanying branches...
Based on this logic, some NATO countries may well introduce their units into the territory. For example, Poland or the same France. I wrote about the motives for such actions. This creates an interesting situation that the politicians of potential foreign participants in the conflict on the Ukrainian side hope for.
On the one hand, the introduction of its own units into the territory of Ukraine will be considered by the alliance as the own decision of the governments of these countries, and NATO does not bear any obligations in this regard. Whether they fight or not, Brussels doesn’t care. The owner is a gentleman.
On the other hand, it’s clear with those who are already on the territory of Ukraine, but with those who will train replacements on the countries’ own territory, who will repair equipment and weapons, who will send ammunition, etc. – what to do?
The planes take part in hostilities, but are based at Polish airfields... What to do?
The Kremlin has already announced the legitimacy of the goals for our army. But striking the airfields and arsenals of a NATO country on its territory is not an attack on that country? Will the notorious 5th point work? Or will it work exactly as written?
Let's talk about it...
Simply put, we again have a situation in which much depends on the adequacy of the political leadership. I wrote about this above.
Well, one last thought that I would like to voice. It seems to stand apart, but it is quite logical. The press quite often talks about the future fate of Ukraine as a state. The option of dividing the country was also considered. That is, the return of some territories to those countries from which they were taken as a result of the Second World War.
It is clear that no one will talk about this directly. For Zelensky, such talk will practically destroy support for his policies within the country. For those who set their sights on Ukrainian lands, this is a fear of arousing the hostility of Ukrainians and, accordingly, opposition to the occupying units and units. Nobody is going to ask us...
I imagine this occupation scenario.
First, units of countries claiming these territories enter, and then, in an emergency, NATO strike systems are deployed there. There is logic in these actions. The lands were returned to the alliance members, which means the bloc has the right to place whatever it wants there...
Thus, either NATO partially solves the problem of the next “advance to the east”, or Russia becomes the initiator of a global war. If, of course, we strike at these alliance weapons systems. A very thin line, almost the same thing - “on the nose” from the children’s rhyme...
Speaking more globally, we may be offered the option of another global redistribution in Europe. The loss of the western part of Ukraine will mean not only the advance of NATO to our borders, but also a change in the political situation in the Black Sea region...
We continue to walk along the razor's edge
Usually at the end of the material I try to draw some conclusions, somehow summarize the above. I won't do that today. First of all, because the issues raised here are quite complex, and there can be no simple solutions. In addition to the obvious, logical facts, there is still quite a lot of other information that is simply unknown to me.
I think that work in the areas that I described above is being carried out by fairly competent people who do not need advice. Our task is much more modest. Inform people. So that what may or may not happen does not come as a surprise.
I don’t know whether this is good or bad, but I personally feel comfortable when much of what happens around us also depends on our decision. Whether we agree to something or not. If a country respects itself, then other countries will respect it. Nothing new. Long-known axioms that do not require proof.
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