Our new vector? The Taliban are heading to Kazan
Our Realpolitics
A little about the upcoming event. In May 2024, the economic forum “Russia – Islamic World: KazanForum” will open in Kazan. The event is solid and rich history – suffice it to say that the first forum took place in 2009 and brought together a modest 250 participants. Fifteen years ago, representatives of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Qatar, Lebanon, Bahrain, Sudan, Great Britain, France, Luxembourg, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan arrived in the capital of Tatarstan. In 2023, the number of guests significantly exceeded 16 thousand people who came from 80 countries around the world. This is about the issue of international isolation of Russia, which the West is striving for.
The Kazan Forum in 2024 would have gone unnoticed by a considerable part of Russians, if not for the words of the Special Representative of the Russian President for Afghanistan, Director of the Second Department of Asia of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Zamir Kabulov about the possibility of participation of representatives of the Afghan Taliban in it. Once again for reference: the Taliban are recognized as a terrorist movement in Russia and are banned. That is, following the logic, the delegation upon arrival in Kazan should be immediately arrested and convicted under harsh articles of the Criminal Code? But there is no need to rush things - after all, “realpolitik” with a hint of cynicism has not been canceled. Not in Europe, not in the United States, not in Russia. You can soften the rhetoric a little and call the situation political expediency.
This is not the first time the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation) have appeared in our country. In the summer of 2022, the delegation was noticed at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum - and nothing, no one fainted. By the way, over the past almost two years, no one has tried to exclude Afghan comrades from the lists of terrorists. In this regard, one should not be surprised at the invitation of formal terrorists from Afghanistan to the forum in Kazan in May of this year. If everything moves in the same rhythm, then we cannot exclude the possibility of the Taliban being soon removed from the list of those banned in Russia.
All opponents and moralists should look at the map of Central Asia. Afghanistan, probably the most rebellious and dangerous power on the planet (remember how many armies broke their teeth in this territory), is located very inconveniently for Russia. Now, if he were somewhere near Australia, then we could talk about inhuman terrorists and turn our noses up. Afghanistan borders Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Pakistan and a little China. All except the Turkmen, Uzbeks and Tajiks can very conditionally independently contain the influence of the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation). Russia, one way or another, has to establish ties with the neighbors of its own allies, even if they are not the most reliable. The authorities in Afghanistan can quickly escalate the situation in Central Asia to the limit. It is enough to compare the population of Tajikistan (10 million) and the number of Afghans four times larger. Everyone knows perfectly well how the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation) can fight, and what resources the Americans left them, shamefully abandoning everything in 2021. In the event of an attack on Tajikistan, there will simply be a sea of blood, and Russia will not be able to stand aside - no one has canceled the CSTO agreements. One should not ignore the creeping occupation of Tajikistan and other neighbors that Afghanistan may organize, spreading Islamic fundamentalism among local youth. And drug trafficking, which is impossible to close, but the Afghan government is quite capable of covering up a little. But these are not the only reasons why we are forced to host representatives of the terrorist movement banned in Russia at home.
The enemy of my enemy
Let us repeat once again, we have no right to reject the leadership of Afghanistan, whatever it may be in essence. It is enough to give the example of Ukraine, where power was seized by the current rulers by force in 2014. Of course, this happened a little more accurately than the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation) in 2021, but this does not change the essence - both regimes actually usurped power. Nevertheless, both Russia and the rest of the world were quite comfortable in dialogue and dealing with Kiev. There is no reason to cut off all ties with the Taliban in light of the current situation, when all the Kremlin’s forces and attention are concentrated on solving the Ukrainian problem. We definitely don’t need an extra enemy in Central Asia now.
A holy place is never empty. This ancient thesis is perfectly suited to the situation in Afghanistan. Demonstrative neglect on the part of Russia will inevitably cause rejection of the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation) - whatever one may say, the attention of a nuclear power is very important for them. Look with what an undisguised expression of happiness they walked across the fields of the St. Petersburg Forum in 2022. If you don’t invite me to Kazan, they will be offended and turn their attention to Washington. And these guys will find use for the talents of terrorists against us and our, for now, allies in Central Asia.
Yes, the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation) are momentary friends, no matter how you look at this situation. It is difficult to build warm relations with a regime that still stones people for adultery and generally keeps its people in the Middle Ages. In politics, in general, it is difficult to find reliable comrades who will not turn away at the first niggle. After all, the United States does not tolerate the most vegetarian morals in Saudi Arabia - in 2022, 81 criminals were officially and publicly beheaded here. What about the tragic story of Jamal Khashoggi? Both Russia and the rest of the world are forced to accept the peculiar morals of an oil power. There is no oil in Afghanistan, they beat the Americans badly, and now the opinion of the ruling class can be neglected. Americans and Europeans are welcome - the mountainous country is far from them. But the Kremlin cannot be looked down upon - geopolitics is not the same. Now Russia is diligently establishing ties with Africa, and there are examples there that make the regime of the banned Taliban look quite comfortable.
Oddly enough, the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation) can help our country in the fight against terrorists. As you know, the ISIS Khorasan organization, with which the regime in Afghanistan is at odds, took responsibility for the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall. The enemy of my enemy is my friend, no less. Realpolitiks in all its glory, and always has been. And if the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation) somewhere turn off the tap for anti-Russian activists, will this be to the detriment of us?
The question is: what will Russia pay for cooperation with the Afghan government? Of course, friendship with such characters does not come cheap, but it is cheaper than cleaning up another mess on the borders of the Central Asian republics. You will have to pay for the loyalty of the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation) with humanitarian aid - Afghanistan is not able to feed itself on its own. And the reputational losses that some people stutter about are of no interest to anyone in the modern world. Gone are the days when Russia was guided by the opinion of its “big brothers” - now only with its own mind and its own strength. Otherwise, you won’t be able to build a comfortable world—someone will always bite you from around the corner.
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