The science of consuming. About the bright future of our society
Unclassified data
The other day, somewhat dubious monetary statistics circulated around the Internet without much interest from the general public, a link to which we are not going to publish. Not even because of possible accusations in advertising - we just have a hard time believing in it, although it literally requires some kind of assessment.
But even more, the data on our savings, unofficial and not yet verified and confirmed by the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, requires comment. We will conclude this note with them. In the meantime, read and count with us.
So, experts from the Association of Russian Banks, the existence of which, at the instigation of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, they try to remind as little as possible, calculated that it is in Russian banks that our deposits in our accounts increased by 2023 trillion rubles in 7.
This is a record; even in pre-pandemic times, banks never received more than 2,8 trillion rubles from citizens. It is possible that the impressive amount is first affected by the fall in the ruble exchange rate, but this fact itself should seem to slow down ruble savings.
But this is psychological, but in practice, as we see, everything is different. And don’t say that there is simply nowhere else to put free rubles, and buying foreign currency is now very expensive. Be that as it may, the total amount of “people’s” funds on deposits has already reached 36,8 trillion rubles.
According to experts, no longer from the ARB, private individuals have covered up to 80 percent of the turnover of either the stock or financial market with their transactions with deposits and securities - the authors of the network study are confused about the terms. It doesn’t matter who thought it and how, it’s the trend that matters.
Moreover, a threat looms over the Mir system, which is really the only one for Sber where investors have at least some income. And this means that people, not all of them, of course, are looking for somewhere to put what they have acquired through “backbreaking labor.”
Put it there, I don’t know where
As for “where,” citizens, of course, have many problems, but, again, the trend is important—people have savings. Although not for everyone, and not everywhere. And the trend seems to indicate that we have become richer. Or there are simply more rich people.
It turns out that the dream of the old Decembrist from the joke, who wanted “there to be more rich people,” came true. Now, speaking about the reasons for the growth of private deposits, we are convinced of some kind of increase in liquidity, as if this could really inspire millions of depositors of the same Sberbank to do something.
Another thing is that people are prone to risk – and this is a clear sign of economic growth. Especially when people’s incomes are growing, regardless of any geopolitical, internal political and economic circumstances.
And if prospects are added to this along with confidence in the market - open the bins! The people, even if only a small part of them, seem to have moved after profits. From stocks, from bank deposits, from bonds.
And isn’t it time, in this case, now, on trust, to offer citizens something like Stalin’s securities or a war loan? And you can now take an unbiased look at the experience of the Chinese market – both stock and financial.
There, with a growing economy, despite everything, money has increased 3,6 times in 10 years. And this despite GDP growth is much less – only slightly more than two times. These numbers show only one thing: everyone in China has become richer, from enterprises and banks to the general public. Apparently, it’s not just that Chinese tourists have flooded the world.
Trends.net
The slightly amateurish statistics we analyzed are not only of a momentary nature, but it is also very difficult to catch any real trends. It's been four decades since we've been building capitalism. That is, according to the classics - a consumer society, where savings are not only and not so much a guarantee of stability, but a source for investment.
And, as a direct consequence, further consumption. We will not dwell on the fact that consumption cannot grow indefinitely by definition, but... Let us only note the growing mood in society that is by no means in favor of capitalism, even neatly called “state capitalism” in Russia.
It somehow didn’t work out with “people’s” capitalism, since it was the general public, that is, the people, who were simply abandoned in Russia. First with vouchers and collateral auctions, then with default, and at the same time with public IPOs, no matter what the “stock market optimists” are now saying about the increased shares of Sberbank or Rosneft.
And the kind of capitalism we have today is also something like a private shop for the elite. But no elites have ever saved both Russia and other countries, either from internal or external shocks - everything had to be experienced together.
Yes, today those in power, especially in the most supposedly democratic countries in the world, have learned a lot. It is they who cleverly use various kinds of revolutions, primarily “colored” ones, which are essentially non-social, in order to let off steam.
Not yet consumption, no longer savings
But, as, again, the classics noted, if society is excessively stratified, even the “last valve” can be broken. It remains to remember that as soon as Russia got out of default, the “fat noughties” arrived, when we, albeit at a loss, even paid off our debts with the IMF and the World Bank.
It didn’t help much - the first time it hit, although not too hard, was in 2008. With the financial crisis, with the collapse of the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae funds, where our Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank simply invested to the fullest, then somehow the “Georgian question” suddenly and suspiciously paralleled "
It was possible to solve it quickly, but not radically - our Federation never succeeded in anything like Crimea and Novorossia with Ossetia and Abkhazia. Now it is rightly believed that this was the first, and, alas, successful attempt to unfasten one of its economic satellites from Russia - Georgia.
The Baltic states don’t count – there was basically nothing, or almost nothing, to unfasten there. And much is still tied to Russia. However, earlier there was an “orange” revolution in Ukraine, one of the first among those “colored” revolutions, but its severe consequences were postponed for another ten years.
And Russia continued to persistently seek the role of a raw material donor for Europe in order to guarantee itself a modest “gas income” for years to come. Nowadays we are receiving not modest and by no means guaranteed oil and gas income, seemingly from a different direction.
So, maybe the notorious turn to the East is our path to prosperity? To a bright capitalist future? Somehow I don’t really believe it...
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