Elabuga and Nizhnekamsk... but we are all in the same boat
I really sympathize with the residents of Yelabuga. I understand what it’s like when the war is somewhere out there, a thousand kilometers away, and suddenly this happens. Unexpectedly, suddenly, there is something to panic about, children begin to be taken away from kindergartens.
We are here, I’m not afraid of this word... used to it.
With Belgorod, of course, it’s a separate issue; everything there is so serious that words cannot be found. But even when another hunt begins in your area for the next litak rushing to the airfield, it’s also not very good, although it doesn’t really evoke any special emotions.
On the other hand, we know here that they will shoot down. But in Yelabuga it’s unlikely.
I am very sorry that, despite the angry rebuke of readers, in 2022, in one of my articles, I turned out to be absolutely right when I said that we would get a full-blown guerrilla war. And we received it, and it was very well organized. And the bridge, and airfields, and oil plants.
And then everything will be absolutely in the same spirit. Well, people just have this mentality; a Ukrainian can go very far for a just cause (in his understanding). Depending on where his convolutions are wrapped. And ours, which is typical, are happy to try to help. Only recently two people in the neighboring region were caught at the crime scene. Everything is the same - setting fire to a relay cabinet on a railway. Priced at 10 rubles per piece.
They burned three, and for thirty thousand they crippled their lives. And you can’t sew on any idea of justice; justice is free. How they went to save Donbass in 2014, not for a salary, there was none in the militia at all, not for awards, there were none either, they went because their conscience called. And then 10 thousand... And betrayal.
There, already at the very top, it is slowly dawning on many that this is their SVO, and in the rest of the world it is the worst kind of war. And therefore the Ukrainians will fight with us until it stops. Until they understand that it’s time to surrender to mercy, maybe they will forgive.
But not before. Before, they will resist like hell. And they will do dirty tricks because they have to. Both to raise your spirit, and simply from the principle “the barn burns down - the house burns.” And there’s nothing to condemn here, everyone has their own understanding.
But we don’t have much understanding either. Moreover, due to the complete lack of liquidity of some political components in the country, not only do many of us not know what we are fighting for, but there are also those who are ready to help the enemy, and who are not at all liberals.
What can you say about the new arrivals?
You understand that 90% of our absolutely worthless “experts” chewing gum about Drones from Ukraine - are they empty-headed? Now someone planted a new idea in their heads - they launched it from Kazakhstan. And what, only 500 km!
Yes, in Kazakhstan they not only don’t like us, they hate us, and if we had paid them Ukrainians, the Kazakhs themselves would have launched it, since they are such a people, they can afford it. But let’s look at things realistically: no drones flew from either Ukraine or Kazakhstan. And they flew completely from our territory.
How? Yes, very simple!
It has been noted more than once that our air defense seemed to “yawn” the flight of a UAV and hit it point-blank, over the roofs of the city. Meanwhile, we have radars that can see up to half of Ukraine. And why didn't you see it? Relief features? No. They just launched it at point-blank range, about forty kilometers away. And while they spotted it, while they were aiming, it had already flown over the outskirts of the city.
And believe me, in our steppes and forest belts you can bury exactly the same amount as is buried in the “forest shelves” on the other side.
And do you seriously think that a UAV of the size that was in Elabuga can overcome the Belgorod-Kursk-Voronezh defense line? You shouldn't think so. It won't overcome today. This is not the first time that “Swifts” and “Reiss” have slipped through the cracks; now everything is much cooler.
I understand that some may doubt it, but alas, I won’t discuss it; honestly, we still know better here.
Therefore, let’s admit that we have “sleepers” in our country, who have been seeding the open spaces since 2014, and our collaborators who want to help them. There are some, yes. I wrote in 2021 how the FSB stopped such a cell that was planning to carry out terrorist attacks. One of theirs and two of ours. Equipped and armed. And there was a half-hour battle, and no one was taken alive.
And nothing can be done here, they, who are not quite ours, are already here. They are working. Each in their own way, on different levels.
Therefore, all the UAVs that flew to Moscow, beyond Moscow, to Nizhny, to Yelabuga, to St. Petersburg, those that will fly to Kazan and Chelyabinsk - they will fly from Russian territory. Not from Kazakhstan, these 500-600 km are stupid. The device will be detected when flying at such a distance and it will be possible to take at least some steps.
But when it flies from 60-80 km... Then the chances of success are much greater. Again, depending on where. In our area they cope, in others - alas, everything depends on the preparation of existing air defense crews. If they are not there, then there is nothing to count on, but to think that now such a fool as in Yelabuga will slip through the front line...
A tourist trip to Belgorod is a very so-so event, but there you can fully appreciate everything that happens. Front line.
And somewhere this is the real “today”. In Belgorod. And God grant and air defense that this cup may pass from other cities.
But, unfortunately, today it’s not only easy to transport a drone anywhere on Russian territory, it’s easier than ever. Here we easily and naturally came up with three plans, and you know, they turned out to be quite realistic. Of course, I won’t voice it here, for obvious reasons, so as not to voice it elsewhere later, but there is an understanding that UAVs can be launched in almost any city without any problems.
So, most likely, it flew from Elabuga and Nizhnekamsk from the territory of Tatarstan itself. Carefully delivered to the site, assembled, debugged, connected to satellites that provide guidance to the target. Explosives... This is somewhat more complicated, but on the one hand, the FSB is constantly tearing up channels for sending explosives into Russia from Ukraine, on the other hand, on the other side they are constantly looking for new ways.
Hexogen in icons – you’ll agree, it’s quite cynical.
But the attack on the student dormitory is no less cynical. We know that Ukrainians make equipment that can go where they tell it to go. One UAV was heading to an oil refinery, everything is clear here. The second... And the second was definitely aimed at the hostel, including those with foreign students.
That is, there is an elementary act of intimidation. Essentially useless and just as disgusting. It doesn’t matter at all how it was carried out, what is important is that it was fundamentally directed against the civilian population. And therefore this is a terrorist attack, in contrast to a raid on a refinery, which is still a strategic facility.
And then you can easily draw analogies with the Twin Towers in New York, for example. There, of course, the scale was larger, but in fact the operations had exactly the same concept.
What can we say based on the results?
We need to get used to the idea that we need a new approach to migrants. So that the guys from the State Duma do not squeal that there are not enough workers in the country, you need to understand that it is vital for the country to see through everyone who is given a residence permit or, especially, citizenship.
And this is especially true for those coming from the western side. Today “Crocus” turned us quite well to the east, it turned us rightly, but we also need to know everything about the other side. Of course, you can hire an Asian migrant to run the machine, he, a migrant, will do everything for money, he has this war along his robe with a thread. A question of efficiency.
And the fact that hundreds of “sleeping” people were sent to us in 2016-2020 – that’s what you want to say, but it was then, during a period of relative calm, that they came. And they naturalized in batches. And now you can’t tell what the problem is, whose it is there. Peter ale Petro. With Abumuhammad, of course, everything is simpler.
But the fact is that Ukrainians are generally cunning guys, and if they hire batches of our foolish youngsters to burn cabinets, then they will find someone to do something more serious. Or they will go on their own, which is even worse.
Control. Of course, you won’t envy the security forces, especially since in our country, where today they create chaos for bribes, legalizing thousands of Dilmurads and Kiromiddins, what can we say about the infiltration of Ukrainians, who in such a situation feel like fish in water. And for them, corruption is not a crime, but a state component. It was my friends from Donbass who beat the thresholds for a year, and whoever unfastened what was requested was already a citizen within three months.
And now these newly minted citizens will arrange something in their new homeland that will not seem enough to anyone. And they will, their homeland is there...
In general, dear Tatars, Bashkirs, Udmurts, Urals and Siberians! No matter how it sounds, get ready. There, beyond the western border, everyone will assemble UAVs. And sooner or later, it will reach everyone. And there is only one way out - to end this war the way it needs to be done. You all, dear readers, understand that there can be only one way out, just as there can be only one victory.
And there's nothing you can do about it. There is nothing good here, but when every day they announce the threat of drone attacks, you begin to be philosophical about it. What is this all being done for? To scare. The Ukrainian military simply will not be able to inflict impressive damage. They don't have that many missiles and drones. But they can scare and sow panic.
But should we lose heart and be afraid?
As it was written in one old book:
“This heart is steadfast until it sees its enemies, the demons, in the disasters to which they are about to be exposed; he will not fear until his enemies fall and are cast down, and much less will he fear after they are cast down.”
John Chrysostom
Well written, isn't it?
I have nothing more to add, I just want to wish everyone strength of spirit and a calm mind. We're all in the same boat, so we'll get through this too. We have to survive.
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