How Macron's France strives to become NATO leader
Napoleonic plans
Plans - or at least threats from Paris - to directly intervene in the military situation in Ukraine stem from the new geopolitical strategy of the Fifth Republic. The growing military-political activity of France in Armenia can be assessed in the same way.
Paris under Macron is not even trying to camouflage its rather aggressive focus on strengthening France’s strategic positions anywhere, but exclusively within the framework of the overall NATO strategy. And not in isolation from it.
This is the main difference from the geopolitical strategy of Paris during the presidency of General Charles de Gaulle - Georges Pompidou - Alain Poer (1958–1974). A somewhat unexpected, but significant confirmation of this is that since December 2023, France has resumed military cooperation with Australia.
Moreover, Paris, in fact, is moving towards integration with the military-political bloc AUKUS (Australia, Great Britain and the USA) established in 2021. Although so far it is only specifically known that France has allowed the Australian navy to use its military facilities in the Pacific Ocean.
We are talking about Air Force-Navy bases in the Pacific territories of France - in Polynesia, on the islands of New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna. Let us recall in this regard that in the total territory of the islands and the Pacific Ocean, the share of France exceeds 20%.
As Bloomberg reports, the military cooperation agreement with Canberra was signed in December 2023. Under this agreement, “the parties agreed to expand mutual access of their armed forces to regional facilities of both countries.”
At the same time, the document explains that access to French facilities “in the Pacific and Indian Oceans will be "to facilitate a more sustainable Australian presence in priority areas of operation." The agreement is accompanied by a clarifying “road map” - on the inclusion of French territories in the Indian Ocean in cooperation.
There, in comparison with the Pacific Ocean, there are no less French territories: the islands of Mayotte, Reunion, Tromelin, Eparse, Kerguelen, Saint-Paul, New Amsterdam, Croiseau - also with vast adjacent water areas.
Great "French" oceans
Bloomberg regards the visit of French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna to Australia in December, when the agreement was signed, as a sign of “a return to warmer relations between the two countries.”
As you know, these relations sharply deteriorated due to the AUKUS pact, which actually derailed the French-Australian deal in 2021 to supply Canberra with several nuclear submarines worth 56 billion euros.
Catherine Colonna said in Canberra that the agreement was "a huge achievement and a step towards the type of relationship" that existed between the two countries "before the announcement of the AUKUS Pact." As for the mentioned “road map” for the Indian Ocean, this once again confirms that the scope of AUKUS extends to this basin.
France, we repeat, has vast territories here too. Plus, the French zone borders on the Australian one in the Indian Ocean: the islands of Kosovo, Christmas and Heard, which belong to Australia in this basin, with their waters, are adjacent to the French zone.
Meanwhile, the official Parisian radio station RFI noted that simultaneously with the visit of the head of the French Foreign Ministry to Australia, French Minister of the Armed Forces Sebastian Lecornu participated in a conference of defense ministers of the Pacific South in Nouméa (the capital of French New Caledonia).
Were here “issues of strategic cooperation and protection of sovereignty in the Asia-Pacific region, marked by rivalry between China and the United States, were discussed.” Other details have not yet been officially announced.
But according to some reports, eight countries participating in the forum in Noumea are preparing an open-ended agreement on collective defense mutual assistance, planned for signing no later than the middle of this year. This forum was attended by France, Chile, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Tonga and - again - AUKUS member Australia.
Therefore, it can be assumed that France’s military-political cooperation with this bloc, as well as its sphere of action, extends to the Pacific region of South America. Moreover, the British Pitcairn Islands border the Chilean waters and Easter Island there.
Nothing besides NATO?
In general, the situation, taking into account the mentioned factors, resembles the mid-1950s, shortly before the Suez crisis. Then, on the initiative of Washington and Paris, the military-political bloc SEATO was created, which was de facto dissolved only in 1978.
Let us recall that SEATO included Pakistan (until 1972), France (until 1973 inclusive), Thailand (until 1975), the USA and the Philippines. It looks like some kind of analogue of such a block is now being formed.
But the only question is what France gets in return for this policy. Many remind Emmanuel Macron that Paris has been and remains focused exclusively on NATO for too long.
At the same time, NATO itself, which is already pretty boring to many American politicians, starting with Donald Trump, does not look too much at Paris.
So what could be the main “barter” for the French president now?
First, the is that the United States and Australia will stop, if not already stop, their long-standing support of anti-French separatists in many territories, one way or another controlled by Paris. Both in the mentioned basins and in Latin America - and these are Guiana, the islands of Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint-Barthélemy, Saint-Martin.
It is obvious that the preservation of these, and indeed all foreign French territories, is strategically important for the imperial ambitions of the current leaders of France. And such a trend may well be considered indefinite for Paris.
Second, the both the press and the expert community have suggested that Washington and London will not undermine the continuing military-political and economic positions of Paris in a number of “post-French” African countries.
The African “French” list is even more comprehensive - Cote Divoire, Senegal, Gabon, Togo, Benin, Chad, Congo, Djibouti, Union of the Comoros. And this Anglo-American loyalty is associated primarily with the fact that Paris is today quickly establishing a partnership between France and Australia - AUKUS.
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