We must take Kharkov! But when and how
The debate over the capture of Kharkov continues. Interestingly, disputes are ongoing both in Ukrainian and Russian resources. It is interesting that both sides took the very fact of storming the city as an axiom. Isn't it strange? I have already written about how the other side really wants this assault. We are literally pushed in every way.
I have already mentioned attacks on the border regions of the Russian Federation. One of the goals of these “stupid” attacks was precisely the desire to force us to start the Kharkov operation. It is clear to any “strategist” that a hundred kilometers from the east is more than 39–40 kilometers from the border. What’s easier is to cross the border and immediately go to Kharkov.
And the civilian population?
How many strange channels from Kharkov suddenly appeared on the Internet. People who for many months did not even dare to like pro-Russian material suddenly became so bold that they openly write that they are waiting for the Russian Army. And this is in the context of increasing activity of the SBU in the city.
Somehow the picture doesn't add up for me...
Moreover, I also wrote about this, the Supreme Commander set the task of creating a demilitarized zone. Barrel artillery today throws shells fifty kilometers away... The German PzH 2000 - 56 km, the French Caesar - 54 km. Indeed, it turns out that you need to tense your navels and...
And rush at least a hundred kilometers to neutralize the missiles and MLRS.
Everything looks quite simple, except for the losses during the assault. Kharkov is a city of over a million! This is not Mariupol or Bakhmut. It is easier to organize defense there. Especially considering the attitude of the Ukrainian Armed Forces towards the civilian population. Tens, if not hundreds of thousands of our fighters and definitely hundreds of thousands of dead civilians.
This is the price of this assault! A Pyrrhic victory, which fits perfectly with the statements of Zelensky and army commanders that their task now is to grind the Russian Army and hold on to the lines of defense. Kharkov is ideal for the role of a “meat grinder”. Just like any other big city.
So to take it or not to take it?
The answer to this question is key today.
I think he looks quite natural. Take!
The only thing that can be discussed is when.
At the beginning of the year, I wrote about the possible actions of our army in the winter and spring campaigns, and some commentators reproached me for skirting the issue of the liberation of Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk.
Indeed, I did not and do not believe that the capture of Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk is critically important for us today. The game is not worth the candle, as my wise grandfather once said. Including because, according to our long-standing tradition, the army will receive orders to protect civilians. To protect at the cost of our own lives... That is, we are being pushed towards what was widely announced even before the presidential elections, towards another partial mobilization...
I’ll cool the hot heads of our jingoistic patriots a little.
All the talk about how “there is no war without losses”, “we’ll only crush the Ukrainians on moral and strong-willed people”, “our weapons are more advanced than the Ukrainian ones” and others are broken down by simple geography. I don’t want to argue about who has more or longer. Let me just remind you that Bakhmut is only 41 square kilometers in area. Kharkov – 350! Next, calculate the number of possible losses yourself...
But we can blockade cities and deprive garrisons of the ability to defend themselves. Yes, and this happened already in 2022... The blows that were dealt to the city’s infrastructure speak precisely to this. By the way, I am quite critical of their results. Our goal was to shut down businesses, not to cut off power to civilians. But, according to my information, up to 80% of the most important industries for Ukraine have already been evacuated!
We are somehow thoughtless about those messages that talk about attacks in some villages in the region and suburbs of Kharkov. It’s not in the city, so it’s not particularly important. I believe that these strikes are the most important part of the operation. We are clearing the area! In the long term, especially taking into account the slowdown in Western supplies, this will deprive the Ukrainian Armed Forces of the necessary resources for defense.
Well, the last.
I don’t understand why some Russians decided that we are superior to the Ukrainian Armed Forces in all respects. Here, I think, those who actually see the enemy every day will agree with me; the media is also to blame. We write so much about how mobilized Ukrainians are something amorphous, incapable of fighting, that it seems that our units are moving forward almost at a walking pace.
At the same time, there are somehow casual reports about numerous counterattacks. Yesterday the first significant attack was carried out using tanks. We attacked and even had some success. But out of 36 vehicles, 5 (!) were hit (according to Ukrainian sources - 8). This amorphous mass, eager to be captured as quickly as possible, met our tankers like this? Let's add two more infantry fighting vehicles to the losses...
In short, at this point in time I consider the operation to liberate Kharkov inappropriate.
I don’t see any military feasibility for carrying out the Kharkov operation, and I don’t see the necessary forces and means either. Although, given that I formed my opinion solely on data from open sources, as they say, options are possible. But the probability of such options tends to zero...
Theoretically, you can take Kharkov in several ways
Let me take a little liberties, that is, fantasize about how it would be possible to take Kharkov...
These are more options for action than an analysis of the situation. Reasoning on a free topic. This does not contradict what was written above. Such reasoning simply helps to remove the “blinders from the eyes” when analyzing the actions of both sides. It is difficult to be on one side and at the same time be objective about the other.
So, the first option, which I already wrote about above.
Head-on assault!
I don't think it's worth repeating. Huge losses. The destruction of the city and... the need to increase reserves for the defense of occupied territories. In addition, the introduction of serious Russian Guard forces into the city to neutralize the “partisans” and enemy DRGs. A destroyed city will create many opportunities for saboteurs to work...
Another option seems more likely.
We ultimately take the city into a semicircle, press the Ukrainian Armed Forces against the river and continue to clean up the surrounding area. That is, with flank attacks we narrow the semi-ring and occupy the Left Bank. In this case, if the operation to liberate the Left Bank is successful, we will also block water communication with the city. Siege and forcing the garrison to surrender the city.
Well, the third fantastic option.
Western, in particular Israeli, option for capturing a million-plus city. I think it’s not worth describing the ways in which the Israelis “fight” terrorists.
By the way, above I wrote about the number of casualties among civilians in the event of an assault; Gaza is an excellent illustration of these words. For every terrorist there are hundreds of civilians...
What's next?
Also a natural question...
I did not set myself the goal of analyzing the tasks that our Armed Forces will probably solve in the summer campaign of 2024. Simply because the spring campaign is not over yet. And without understanding its results, it is stupid to talk about the future. Although I have already voiced my opinion many times.
We need to clean up the coast and reach the western borders of Ukraine. Deprive Kyiv of access to the sea. And, ultimately, eliminate this pseudo-state.
I think it’s even worth considering the issue of returning some territories to other countries. For example, Belarus.
Ukrainians, I think, will happily agree with this. Someone has already settled in Europe, someone is selling an existing passport from a neighboring state, someone will become a Russian or Belarusian...
Returning to Kharkov, I will say that this is the first serious city that we need to take. It cannot be taken at once, as was the case, for example, with Kherson.
Therefore, the operation must be brilliantly designed and carried out with precision. This is already the task of our commanders and staffs. They have plenty of experience and talent, which they have already proven more than once...
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