American analyst warns of high risk of US stock market collapse

The US stock market may soon collapse. This warning was made by the senior strategist of the financial company and the country's largest bank JPMorgan for global stocks, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, reports the Bloomberg news agency.

According to a financial analyst, too much concentration of investors in the most successful stocks is fraught with a sudden correction in the stock market. Therefore, Lakos-Buyas noted, investors need to come to an understanding of the advisability of diversifying their securities portfolios, as well as calculate all existing risks.

First, one large fund will begin to dump some of its positions, another will follow, the third will not be ready for this - and you will get an increasing collapse of the moment

- the agency quotes the words of a financial analyst.

What is currently happening in the American economy does not inspire much optimism among financial analysts. Perhaps the only positive trend is the further development of artificial intelligence technologies.

Another analyst, Marrko Kolanovic, also believes that there is a high risk of a collapse on Wall Street this year. And this is against the backdrop of record stock indexes. Earlier, the Fitch rating agency removed the United States from its highest position in its AAA credit rating.

Washington's huge public debt also does not contribute to the stabilization of the American economy in general and the financial sector in particular. By the way, not only financiers, but also political figures, including American congressmen, talk about this.

Comments

[ZovSailor]

Get excited - check out the news! In our collective farm way, it’s good to overwhelm the enemy, who for many years has been preventing all of humanity from living happily and fairly, and not according to concepts!?
On the other hand, it itches and pricks, is stability more important for us?
A showdown will begin, the rich will cry or rejoice again, you won’t immediately understand when such chaos begins!?

[YOU]

Collapse has been predicted for years now. But it still doesn’t collapse.

[Lev_Russia]

Anything is predicted... There are too many predictors... There has not yet been any collapse... There have been fluctuations for various reasons... Stock markets are financial bombs planted under the state... If such a bomb explodes (crisis), any the state is getting poorer right before our eyes... The capitalization of enterprises (corporations) is falling along with the price of shares of this enterprise (corporations)... The main thing is to crawl away in time, throwing off shares at a decent price, without waiting for them to become cheap paper...

[Pavel_Sveshnikov]

In 2008, the crisis had already struck. He was flooded with money. But another problem arose. Interest must be paid on this money. And since the amount of debt is growing exponentially, the end is not far off. According to my estimates, at this rate in 2026 they will have to spend about 25% of the budget on interest on debt. And in 2031 this figure will reach 50%. That is, their budget system has not yet gone out of balance. But it is actively moving towards this.
And in the stock market, the pyramid of shares and securities derivatives from them is approaching its final stage. To stimulate the economy, they threw out a colossal amount of money, which was bound to cause unprecedented inflation. To prevent this, the Fed organized an exponential growth of the US stock market. As a result, most of the inflationary money ended up in the stock market, which began to grow wildly. Since the growth in stock prices is fictitious, sooner or later investors will run away, causing a huge collapse. And the faster stocks rise, the easier it will be for them to roll back and start this collapse.

[Sarmat Sanych]

Another serious result of the sanctions war against Russia. Concerned about the weaponization of the financial system, many countries have announced plans to withdraw their gold and other assets from the United States following unprecedented Western sanctions imposed on Russia in connection with the start of the CWO.
A number of congressmen are demanding answers from the Federal Reserve regarding how much foreign gold was actually taken from US shores.
According to a 2023 Invesco poll, a "significant percentage" of central banks expressed concern about how the US and its allies froze 40% of Russia's foreign exchange reserves. An anonymous central bank official told Invesco that his country had quietly repatriated its gold from London, and about 68% of banks surveyed said they kept their gold reserves within their country's borders - up from 50% in 2020.
UPD.
The 3,14 dts ECB and Fed are approaching, this is the main “koschey’s egg” of the West, there is NOTHING else for them to live for.


17.11.2023/XNUMX/XNUMX Data from the US Department of the Treasury on non-resident holders of Federal Reserve State Bonds has been released (for one September).
1. China dumped $27,1 billion worth of American trash.
2. The rest cut their investments in worthless promises by $101,6 billion.

A note in the margins of "reliable assets".
If you, on January 3, 2022, bought “the most reliable asset on the planet” - i.e. US government bonds (“treasuries”) - for example, through the most popular (liquid) American bond fund for retail - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (from the well-known company BlackRock), then your current loss at prices on October 20, 2023 amounted to 42% ( I emphasize: MINUS 42%).
//For pedants: if we take Total Return with reinvestment of coupons, it turns out minus ~39%.

a couple of links to the latest reports from the New York Federal Reserve on the debt burden of the population, so that there is no “misrepresentation”: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2023/20230808


>225 US public pension funds face a $1,4 trillion gap between the assets they hold and the calculation of their future benefit obligations
Have you seen Apple's capitalization?!!! In terms of. What does it mean “they invested in it, and this is the result”? And we read that all Western pension funds invest wisely and profitably, not like this Pension Fund, they buy only very high-quality shares, which are constantly becoming more expensive.
What do you mean, you bought some overpriced high-tech stuff and got stuck?
I mean, a bunch of American high-tech startups were created just to imitate the prospects?
In the sense that they buy additional ratings for this and give bribes to funds that place other people’s money so that their shares can be bought at a high price, and share the kickbacks from this?
I mean, it’s not just “it’s always worked that way,” but “worse than that, it was invented for this purpose, to beautifully transfer living pension savings into the cut paper of Californian-talented-boys-who-will-soon-assemble-a-spaceship-in-the-garage- and-will-earn-trillions, who will ultimately withdraw everything into crypto and no one will look for them, because they are relatives of the congressman?
In the sense that the market decided where to go?...))

[Kotofeich]

Quote: YOU

Collapse has been predicted for years now

Just like the collapse of capitalism.

[Sarmat Sanych]

In February 2024, the US government collected $120 billion in taxes and paid only $76 billion in interest on government debt.
And yes, there is no money. I understand that this phrase in relation to the United States breaks the mold for many, but this is the harsh truth. An outrageous, almost $2 trillion budget deficit (which they cannot accept). The strongest (and worsening “year by year”) trade deficit with all trading counterparties. Attempts to cover this by printing money and increasing debt only increase inflation (which is already REAL in the US at the level of African countries) and lead to an increase in the cost of maintaining debt (more than a trillion dollars per year in mandatory terms only) falling on the budget. The US is no longer working for development. And they don't even work to live. And they “reborrow in order to repay,” and each cycle with worsening conditions. More and more debt, higher and higher interest rates.
There is no money to eliminate the consequences of fires and hurricanes.
There is no money to fight homelessness.
There is no money for the fence.
Everything that exists is borrowed, fiat, printed on debt.
“You have nothing, you’re a poor man” (c)
Therefore, the general attitude towards Zelensky and “his young team” is approximately at the level of “Who are you, boy? What the hell is Ukraine? Haven't you lost yet? with poorly concealed irritation. And “What do you want? Money? Or maybe the key to the room where the money is? We don’t have enough ourselves.”


Dollar tsunami - the United States is preparing to catastrophically cut its social, medical, law enforcement and other budget items, impoverishment awaits all Americans, by the way, this was stimulated by the Northern Military District:
https://youtu.be/_aW7hQwVEPk?si=VQgfX7XaVpNEdHXk
Bloomberg estimates that at the end of September 2023, estimated annual interest payments on the U.S. government debt pile topped $1 trillion. That amount has doubled over the past 19 months and is equivalent to 15,9% of the entire federal budget for fiscal year 2022.
16% of the federal budget is stupidly just a percentage of debt. And they have not yet refinanced at 5,5% (next year it will be).
People live... it’s just unclear how and why.

Washington faces a serious challenge in finding new sources of financing as investors leave the country en masse and government bond prices plummet, Welt.
The publication notes that previously, decades ago, during geopolitical crises, it was US debt that was preferred for investment. However, now the opposite phenomenon is happening, investors are massively abandoning investments in American bonds.
-
That is, exactly as I say.
And a high rate doesn't help (it's not high enough to compensate for the risks). And anything higher is a disaster for the entire US financial system; doing it sharply higher is tantamount to a bullet in the temple.
In the States, it’s a shame, even budget revenues collapsed by 9%, here, by the way, once again - why they are no longer able to print:
https://youtu.be/CMb3RwwlW_Y?si=BYHAZEQVQ_PODx__

[APASUS]

Earlier, the Fitch rating agency removed the United States from its highest position in its AAA credit rating.

The USA is essentially bankrupt and immediately has the highest AAA rating, sorry AA+. But this does not change the essence. It will be like with Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc, which had the highest AAA rating until the last minute of its existence

[Galleon]

What is typical for this kind of articles is that they are always without signatures. Nobody wants to be held accountable for their “forecasts.” But, dearest writers, has it ever occurred to you that you are humiliating yourself with these traditional humorous articles? You might be capable of something more, haven't you thought?..

[Sarmat Sanych]

Wake up at last, Galleon.
The head of the world's largest investment fund, BlackRock, announced this last night, New York time, and in much more detail, with figures for the catastrophic spending of the US federal budget for only one mandatory annual payment of % on the Federal Reserve's T-bills. With a total reduction in social and other articles of the American state.
The chief operating officer of the key investment bank Goldman Sachs said the same thing a month earlier.

And this news expert simply briefly confirmed their facts.

[tralflot1832]

No one asked the question - Why are public analysts and economists not Billionaires? They are dumber than the dumbest Billionaire without a higher economic education!

[abc_alex]

Because forecasting and analytics have very little relation to stock market speculation. A question for you in your style: why are there no mathematics professors among billionaires? :)

The stock exchange is only a spontaneous market at first glance. In fact, when Big Money wants it, everything moves where it needs to go.

[tralflot1832]

And billionaires are good at mathematics, they have 2+2=5.

[Dekabrist]

American analyst warns of high risk of US stock market collapse

News from an illiterate website newsmaker who has absolutely no idea what he is writing about and passes off a dream as reality for users of Meehan’s level. We are not talking about any US stock market.
In reality, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas predicts a decline in the S&P 500 stock index by 20 percent by the end of the year. Moreover, with his forecast, he warns not about a “market collapse,” but that its current growth will stop by the end of the year and a decline will begin (https:/ /banker.az/jpmorgan-analitiki-abs-fond-bazarinda-gozl%C9%99nilm%C9%99z-korreksiya-riski-bar%C9%99d%C9%99-x%C9%99b%C9%99rdarliq-edib /)

[abc_alex]

Quote: Dekabrist

In reality, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas predicts a decline in the S&P 500 stock index by the end of the year by 20 percent / Moreover, with his forecast he warns not about a “market collapse”, but that its current growth will stop by the end of the year and a decline will be expected

In your opinion, where does the collapse begin? S&P500, let me remind you, these are the shares of the 500 MOST RELIABLE US companies. If they “fall” by 20%, this means that the rest will fall down many times more. Money is not the first to be withdrawn from the S&P500, and therefore it is the most resistant to the hysterics of speculative capital.
Now, if you said that the US financial market lives on this, that it regularly crashes, that it ruins thousands of small “investors” so that a select few can increase their capital, I would agree with you. But now you wrote garbage. If only because the phrase “by the end of the year by 20 percent” does not mean at all that the decline will take place and even stop with the end of the year. The fall may continue (and will continue, in my opinion there are no fundamental prerequisites for stabilization, empty debt obligations must be burned) and after the “end of the year” and next year lead to a “decrease” by another 20, 30, 40, 50... .

[opposite28]

It turned out that the Ukrainian “captain” drove not only into the Baltimore bridge, but his “pilot” with dementia showed the right path. In principle, another collapse of the US stock market is a long-standing tradition due to the huge US domestic debt, which somehow needs to be compensated so that the financial system as a whole can function at least somehow. Next in line are the EU countries with their collective farmers and a collapse in the industry of Germany and France due to the cessation of the required gas supplies from the Russian Federation, and therefore a disruption in the production cycle.

[Galleon]

Quote: Dekabrist

News from an illiterate website newsmaker who has absolutely no idea what he is writing about and passes off a dream as reality for users of Meehan’s level.

Or Sarmat Sanych

[Galleon]

Quote: Sarmat Sanych

Wake up at last, Galleon.

You will call to wake up when it collapses.
No need in advance.

[phrases]

The USA is not a state, it is a colony in the scenery of a state: foreign land, foreign money, foreign language. The sages created a colony for their hobby of lending money for growth and ensuring timely return of interest.

[bone1]

So why didn’t you raise the bobble yourself and just start chattering?