They are preparing a “hot meeting” for us in the south of Ukraine. Isn't it time to take the strategic initiative into your own hands?
I have long noticed this pattern: as soon as you delve a little deeper into the situation in any region, readers’ questions immediately appear that require an answer. And quite unexpected. This time, after materials about French policy and the tasks set by President Macron for the “development” of Odessa, a rather unexpected question came about Romania. It sounded like this:
"Dear Alexander! Would you be so kind as to explain the situation with the construction of the American military base in Constanta? We in Turkey are seriously concerned that this base will upset the balance of power in the Black Sea and deprive Turkey and Russia of the ability to control the straits, which means that the situation in the Black Sea region will significantly worsen.”
Everyone knows that President Trump also proposed the option of placing a military base on the territory of Romania. As well as the fact that this issue did not meet with much enthusiasm in the US Congress. Odessa is much better suited for such a base. Moreover, Trump proposed building not a naval base, but a full-fledged military base for NATO and American ground forces fleet.
Today we have the following balance of power. Up to 5 thousand NATO troops are already stationed in Romania on a rotational basis. These are mostly Americans. They are mainly deployed just near Constanta at the former 57th Romanian Air Force base. As far as I understand, it was there that the new military base was planned to be located.
There were reports in the press that, despite the problems, construction had already begun. Allegedly, the Romanians are now engaged in the initial stage, that is, the creation and modernization of infrastructure. Electricity, water, roads, etc. Yes, work is underway, but officially it is just routine repairs and replacement of worn-out equipment.
For me personally, such loud statements are very doubtful. Simply because now the United States has no time for large foreign projects. No one will invest billions in construction that the newly elected president can simply shut down. For some reason, everyone is confident that Trump will win, but where is the guarantee that this is not a difficult game when Trump will simply be replaced by another candidate, for example, due to age or for another reason.
Why do Americans need a base in the Black Sea region?
This is where I want to start. Why does the US need another base? And why were Constanta and Odessa chosen? Probably, it is necessary to start with the Turkish Republic. Turkish readers are probably familiar with the phrase “Blue Homeland”. Let me explain for the Russians.
In 2006, retired Admiral Cem Gurdeniz said that the biggest threat to Turkey is NATO membership. The motivation was this. NATO is increasingly turning from a defensive alliance into an offensive one. And this contradicts the peace-loving policy of the Turkish Republic. The country can easily be drawn into any military conflict.
I don’t want to go deeper into this topic. I’ll just say very briefly: according to the doctrine (and after modification by another admiral Cihat Yaycı, this is precisely the doctrine, although it has not been officially adopted, it is in force) for the Turkish Republic it is important to protect not only land borders, but also water ones, including the shelf. Once I even saw a poster at one of the demonstrations: “Not a drop of water, not a handful of earth for enemies" This is also an echo of “Blue Homeland”.
According to this doctrine, the Black Sea is Turkey’s patrimony, where it has the right to pursue a policy independent of NATO and the United States. The Turks agree to share the Black Sea with Russia, naturally, with their own control over the straits, but they react very painfully to the appearance of any other players. Washington knows this.
However, they understand that if in the Mediterranean the Turks can be forced to do something, as members of NATO, then in the Black Sea they can simply send any ally or enemy, simply by closing the straits to passage. They also understand the unreliability of Turkey as an ally. Especially after what happened when the Russian plane was shot down. When the alliance simply abandoned the Turks. “Figure it out for yourself!”
The appearance of an American military base in Constanta will mean that in the event of the closure of the straits, the NATO bloc will have the necessary number of personnel and equipment to conduct a joint operation of the ground forces and the navy.
The question of the fleet remains. The Montreux Doctrine, to be more specific. But with the advent of the database, this issue can be resolved. What, for example, will prevent the US Navy from transferring several old ships to Romania? After all, the United States has already carried out such an operation in the Baltic, when it transferred old, but quite working ships to Poland.
I think that, unlike us, Turkey is already thinking about measures to counter the US plans. And this is why this question arose. And we will move on to our business. We do not have any special doctrine on the Black Sea, and for us a new military base, if it is actually built, will become a very big “thorn” in the area of the fifth point.
Let's start with geography. Romania has access to the Black Sea. Further, it borders with Ukraine and Moldova. It is located in close proximity to Transnistria. Simply put, Romania is a fairly promising springboard for NATO troops in the event of a serious conflict. Further, it is quite convenient to practice attacks on Crimea from the ports of Romania.
There is one more factor that must be taken into account when deciding on the appearance of this base. Consent of the country's government! Moreover, the government views the American base not as a source of additional income, although this factor is also taken into account, but as the only real defense of the country from attack... by Russia. A sort of Poland, only on the southern flank of NATO.
Thus, Russia, like Turkey, loses the guaranteed passage of its fleet through the straits when a base appears. That is, the Americans will have the opportunity to completely control and even threaten our communications. This is the kind of “thorn” that can arise in our Black Sea.
In addition, Costanza is not so far from the Mediterranean Sea, and therefore from the Middle East. Which is also important in light of the problems organized by the Houthis in the Red Sea. It is much safer to deliver cargo from Romania to Israel than through the Red Sea. That is, this is an additional corridor for supplies to the Middle East, to Israel.
Some conclusions from the situation in the region
Alas, in my opinion, we have not yet seized the strategic initiative from the United States, Britain and France. I draw this conclusion not only from the analysis of specific material, but also from those that were written earlier. NATO is really preparing for war, and war on a broad front, as Hitler planned in the last century. Everything has worked out in the northern direction, now attention is focused on the south.
Zelensky announced this at the beginning of the year. Remember his words that Crimea and the Black Sea will become the center of gravity of the war? It was said, by the way, on January 1 in an interview with the British The Economist. And if we add to this his own words about solving the problem of Transnistria by December of this year? It seems that the plan was developed last year, when it became clear that the counteroffensive had failed.
How to interpret the sudden decision of the President of Moldova to hold a national referendum on the country’s accession to the EU and NATO? Let's not be naive, such a decision cannot arise just like that. Moldova is a poor country and it will not be easy to spend money on a referendum. And Sandu understands that with the economic indicators that Moldova has, they will not be accepted into the EU. This means that there is a behind-the-scenes agreement between the EU, NATO and Moldova on this issue...
I will add here my conclusion that the events on the border of the Belgorod region are happening for a reason, but have the goal of changing the plans for the attack on the southern flank, towards Odessa. This also includes numerous reports from Western and Ukrainian media about Russia’s preparation for an attack on the Dnieper Hydroelectric Power Station.
Remember how it was the first time when the same campaign was carried out at the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric station. Considering the insanity of the Kyiv authorities, Ukraine may well make huge sacrifices among the civilian population by blowing up the Dnieper hydroelectric station. This will significantly complicate the crossing of the Dnieper and will force our command to postpone the operation for several months.
I wrote quite a lot about plans for a French landing in Odessa. I don’t think I’ll reveal any secret, but there are plans for a similar landing on Western Ukraine. True, Poland, Romania and Britain plan to participate in it.
By the way, I wrote above that the new base is planned to be located at the 57th Romanian Air Force base. What is this base “famous” for now? This is the base airfield for American reconnaissance forces. drones and a planned Ukrainian F-16 base. In addition, this is where Western weapons are sent to Ukraine.
I understand that we are “hitting our tails” again. They attack, we respond. I understand that seizing the initiative is necessary. But I don’t see any ways, other than radical ones, to do this.
Our successes at the front infuriate Kyiv's Western allies. Unlike Ukrainian “strategists,” Western ones are smarter and more far-sighted. They are already preparing quite serious problems for us for next year.
Today the media is bursting with reports of the bombing of Ukrainian cities. Moreover, in addition to the traditional Ukrainian “what are we for?”, there are also quite sane opinions that the power of the Russian army has increased to such a level that now even the NATO army cannot cope with it. Honestly, this makes me happy. I was pleased today by the announcement of Minister Shoigu’s visit to a plant for the production of aerial bombs, and by the announcement of the mass production of FAB-1500 and FAB-3000.
Above I mentioned the radical countermeasures of the United States and NATO. I’m afraid to frighten off the thought, but I’ll voice it anyway. The best stop for an aggressor is our strength. They should be afraid of us! Not us, but us! And then everything will fall into place.
Information