The global North-South corridor is not only a Chinese interest
Heroes of not our time
Currently, Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are planning to create a joint venture to develop the North-South International Transport Corridor. As you know, it is not an alternative to the Chinese project, where other directions of the world are designated - East and West, but in fact - an addition to it, almost guaranteeing the notorious synergistic effect.
The North-South corridor has not yet been supported by even a detailed project. However, it is clear that it is intended not only and not so much to reduce cargo delivery times and optimize customs services.
We must not forget the problem of crossing state borders during transport communications between Russia and the Persian Gulf through the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. It already requires a prompt solution, especially taking into account the creation of a free trade area between Iran and the EAEU.
This route by land is shorter and less dangerous given the events in Gaza and Yemen than the existing one through the Suez Canal. However, not everything is so simple: there are also alternative projects, the presence of which shows that the North-South participants do not yet have a common position, including on foreign policy.
Window to the future?
The key players in the development of the corridor are Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, contrary to popular belief about the interest of Russia and Iran. After all, the shortest land route from Russia to Iran passes through these countries.
In the logistics of the North and South, in fact, Kazakhstan took the leading role, engaged in a global reorganization of the country’s infrastructure. In Kazakhstan, it is not for nothing that they are now developing a standardized single window information system, which also takes into account the transition to a visa-free regime with China.
An additional incentive here can be considered the fact that a shorter section of the corridor is currently being laid in Iran. So far, only through the Kazakhstan section of the existing transport infrastructure of the corridor in 2023, 2,1 million tons of cargo passed by rail, which is 4 percent more than a year earlier.
The Ministry of Transport of Kazakhstan plans to increase the throughput capacity of the corridor from 2027 million tons to 6 million tons per year by 10. Kazakhstan also began working on major projects in February, which include modernizing railways stretching from the Russian border city of Orsk to the Kazakh-Turkmen border.
The update also affected the railway connecting the Caspian port city of Mangistau with inland Kazakhstan. At the same time, the matter is not limited to the existing “documented” route; it is also planned to modernize a number of other various railways connecting Kazakhstan with Russia.
In addition, Astana is hatching an ambitious plan to build a completely new railway along the border with Uzbekistan. At the same time, it would be wrong to assume that, being the second most economically important member of the EAEU, Kazakhstan is orienting its transport and logistics industry towards cooperation with this association.
Where is Russia out of the game?
There is also a “Middle Corridor” project, which implies a connection between Europe and China bypassing Russia. Kazakhstan plays an important role there, opening the gateway to China for the corridor running from Europe through Georgia and Azerbaijan.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has concluded that the Central Trans-Caspian Network, running through southern Kazakhstan, is the most sustainable alternative for connecting Asia and Europe. Naturally, there is a situation in connection with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and sanctions.
As a result of the corridor plan, the delivery time for goods from East Asia to Europe will be only twelve days. For comparison, cargo movement along the Northern Corridor takes nineteen days, and the traditional sea route through the Indian Ocean takes up to thirty-seven days. It is not without reason that the EBRD plans to invest more than $100 million in Kazakhstan's railways.
From Beijing's strategic perspective, the Middle Corridor offers China a trade route that does not cross Russia itself. China's caution in assessing the Ukrainian situation makes it possible to believe that it benefits from such a development of events so as not to spoil relations with the Western world, which are already not cloudless.
And where are others outside the game?
Russia, however, is also not lagging behind, seriously considering the prospect of access to China through Central Asia, forgotten for many years, after a whole series of Soviet projects. But at the same time, the idea of creating a “Southern Corridor” Russia – Caspian Sea – Turkmenistan – Kyrgyzstan clearly contains elements of reinsurance.
It seems that it is very important for Moscow that there is a route bypassing Kazakhstan if it really begins to actively cooperate with Europe in the field of transport communications with China. In addition, the “Southern Corridor” could develop into an alternative route connecting Russia with Iran only through Turkmenistan.
In this regard, we must not forget that the North-South route, even if not fully developed, clearly implies the participation of Kazakhstan. Naturally, the route is combined, using sea transportation, but it is still less expensive than continuing to send cargo through the Suez Canal at the risk (pictured).
Another thing is that Kyrgyzstan is in no hurry to modernize its railways, and of the transportation options using railways or heavy transport in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, it prefers the second option. Under this scenario, at the initial stage, containers from Kyrgyzstan will be delivered to the seaport of Turkmenbashi on trailers.
In general, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan do not object to this option, especially since the trailers will then be transported by ferry to Russian Astrakhan. Kyrgyzstan is ready today to provide a daily flow of 40 vehicles at the initial stage, and in the future potentially increase it to 150-200 heavy trucks per day.
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