This is not how wars start. How the Taiwan incident will not end
How did a boat with dudes sink in the Pacific Ocean?
Can we expect that a skirmish in Taiwanese territorial waters will create another front in World War III? Hardly. Nevertheless, another conflict in the territorial waters between Taiwan and the PRC will not remain without consequences.
It has already led to an extreme aggravation of relations between the “two Chinas”, this time fraught with a real war. For now, however, the fight can only be for territorial waters and islands between the mainland and the island of Taiwan.
But options for escalation are also possible, since throughout its entire stories The PRC, following the concept of “one China”, claims Taiwan - the Republic of China ROC as its part. In turn, the Kyrgyz Republic wants power not just anywhere, but in Beijing.
The only catch is that the latter is recognized only by a few small states, including dwarf Pacific island countries. The latter play with the recognition and non-recognition of Taiwan, thereby replenishing their microscopic budgets. They can afford this because, unlike Taiwan, they have votes in the UN.
On February 14, a Chinese speedboat was caught by the Taiwan Coast Guard while illegally entering Taiwanese waters and capsized near the Kinmen Islands during its pursuit. As a result, two of the four Chinese citizens on the boat drowned.
The incident occurred a mile east of the island with the characteristic name of Beijing in Kinmen County. Chinese fishermen had gone there before, but there had never been any incidents with such a harsh outcome. The Taiwanese coast guard themselves apparently did not foresee such an outcome.
Now they explain everything as a tragic accident; according to them, no one rammed the Chinese on purpose; they capsized on their own at a turn, fleeing from the Taiwan Coast Guard boat, from where orders were coming to stop. All four were removed from the water and sent to the hospital, but two could not be saved.
China naturally strongly condemned Taiwan for the deaths of its citizens, challenging the concept of “prohibited or restricted zones” in the Taiwan Strait between Xiamen and Kinmen, which are separated by less than ten kilometers. According to the Chinese side, Taiwan's ban on Chinese fishing vessels operating in these zones is illegal.
Forbidden fruit of forbidden waters
The Taiwan Coast Guard Administration has its own interpretation of the term “prohibited waters.” They believe it refers to territorial waters that extend 12 nautical miles around Taiwan itself and various distances around Taiwan's outlying islands.
This concept has been in effect since 1992. Everyone has their own truth, and in Taiwan they claim that until recently China, although it did not officially recognize this provision, did not openly encourage its fishermen to violate it.
The provision on prohibited zones raises many questions, and not towards China, but towards Taiwanese legislators. On Taiwan's Matsu Islands, which are slightly further off the Chinese coast than Kinmen, the exclusion zone extends four kilometers east and six kilometers north of the archipelago.
At the same time, the restricted zone around the islands of Kinmen and Little Kinmen is located approximately halfway to the Chinese coast, four kilometers to the east and eight kilometers to the south. That is, Taiwan has moved the border close to the Chinese coast.
Taipei was not afraid to take advantage of Kinmen's proximity to China. After the incident, China deployed coast guard activity in response, accordingly also near Kinmen, immediately beyond the restricted zone, patrolling its border.
On the islands itself, some local politicians have taken positions that President Tsai Ing-wen clearly will not like. She, as you know, is a member of the Democratic Progressive Party, which calls for Taiwan to pursue a development path separate from the PRC without attempts at reunification.
Particularly distinguished was the deputy from the Kuomintang (the party that adheres to the ideology of a gradual reunification with China through negotiations and after the 2022 elections received the largest number of seats in parliament), Jessica Chen, representing Kinmen. She called on the government to allow local governments in Kinmen and Matsu to engage in direct negotiations with China on issues such as fishing rights.
Between them - the presidents
The election of Taiwanese President Lai Jinte is unlikely to affect Taipei's political course, since he is also a member of the Democratic Progressive Party. Lai, however, does not deny the possibility of negotiations with China, but only on terms of parity, not unification.
The latest escalation of tensions by China near Taiwan's territorial waters is only growing. And it is accompanied not only by active investment in the high-tech arms race. There is also a build-up of its military presence wherever possible.
In Taiwan, this is met with an understandable reaction in the form of ever-increasing stubbornness. Taipei understands quite well that as long as the Democrats, their American like-minded people, are in power in Washington, they will continue to cover for them.
The only question is, if Republicans, and especially the President, come to power in the United States, will they want to continue cooperation with Taiwan at the same level?
Or they will pay attention to the fact that not a single American regime, be it Republican or Democratic, has even mentioned recognizing the sovereignty of Taiwan, having relations only at the level of representative offices.
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