Putin alone will not stop the brain drain from Russia
I'm really sorry, I missed it. And all because we haven’t celebrated the birthday of Russian science so quietly since the very day of its establishment, since 1999. They celebrated in whispers and in the basement, behind closed hatches and doors; no other comparison comes to mind. But - it is what it is.
Meanwhile, it was on January 28 or February 8, according to the new style, that the Russian Emperor Peter the Great commanded, and the Senate by its decree, founded the St. Petersburg Academy of Sciences. And this happened in 1724 from the Nativity of Christ, that is, this year Russian science celebrated its tricentenary.
And – virtually silence.
And you yourself understand, for good reason? You understand correctly. And to confirm this understanding, we must turn our gaze to the year 2018, when Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated May 07, 2018 No. 204 “On national goals and strategic objectives of the development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2024” was signed.
And here it is, the year 2024...
In order to appreciate the achievements of Russian science, you don’t have to go far. Every year a very useful statistical reference book “Science” is published. Technologies. Innovation." The collection has been published since 2009, usually published by April-May, but this year it has already been published. In January. Apparently, based on the data, anniversary reports should have been drawn up about how we are ahead of everyone.
But something went wrong, anyone who wants to check the correctness of the given data can easily find the collection in online libraries, there are only about a hundred pages, but here, at the end of the article, I will give a link to the “summary” of this collection and to the entire collection.
The data is available, and since there were no victorious reports, everyone can simply see for themselves what the achievements of Russian science are. Including since such an important national project as “Science”, which started within the framework of the same Presidential Decree, has ended.
It is simply unrealistic to consider ALL the achievements of Russian science within the framework of one article, so let me talk about achieving results within the framework of the “Science” national project. And there the main thing was prescribed - Russia should be in the top five most scientifically advanced countries.
How can we generally understand whether science is developed in a country or not? The question is not easy. There is a list of leading countries in world science, “Group 13”. And membership in a group is determined by the number of scientists engaged in full-time research. It’s a complex definition, but it gives the idea that a person is engaged in science all the time he works.
True, I took liberties and slightly modernized the table, adding to it the list number of residents of the country. It turned out more interesting. Number is given in millions of people. Population – as of 2020, scientific workers – as of 2021. The first figure is the number of scientists, the second is the total number of residents of the country.
1. China - 2,405 / 1
2. USA - 1,493 / 337,9
3. Japan - 0,704 / 125,4
4. South Korea - 0,470 / 51,9
5. Germany - 0,461 / 83,2
6. Russia – 0,390 / 140,1
7. India - 0,341 / 1
8. France - 0,333 / 69,1
9. Great Britain - 0,317 / 66,9
10.Canada - 0,191 / 40,3
11.Brazil - 0,180 / 211,0
12. Taiwan - 0,167 / 23,4
13. Italy - 0,159 / 58,7
In general, everything is clear; the fact that Japan, which has twice as many scientists for the same population, will be ahead of Russia, is not worth explaining. And the fact that we still have more scientists than India also inspires some optimism.
Alas, it's not worth it. Russia is the only country on the list in which the number of scientists has decreased compared to 2000. At that time, 506,4 thousand people were engaged in research; accordingly, the reduction was 23%.
And during the same time, the number of scientists in China increased by 3,46 times. In Brazil – 3,5 times. South Korea – 4,4 times. India - 2,8 times. USA - 1,4 times. Taiwan - 3 times.
ALL countries from the list have increased, and the vast majority - significantly. And only Russia reduced it. This is the main “victory” of the national project “Science”.
Next.
What immediately followed was a coefficient that would show how many scientists work per 10 people working in the economy. This is a very useful figure that removes the “old and young” and shows how many people actually work to ensure that the economy develops in all sectors.
1. South Korea - 173
2. Taiwan - 147
3. France - 114
4. Canada - 110
5. Germany - 103
6. Japan - 103
7. UK - 101
8. USA - 101
9. Italy - 63
10. Russia – 55
11.China – 32
12.Brazil – 19
13.India – 9
And then, right there, the answer to the question: how much money does it cost? How much do countries spend on various research and development? In millions of US dollars.
1. USA - 806,0
2. China - 667,6
3. Japan - 177,4
4. Germany -153,7
5. South Korea -119,6
6. UK - 97,8
7. France -77,2
8. India - 59,1
9. Taiwan - 55,6
10. Russia - 49,9
11. Italy - 40,1
12. Brazil - 35,9
13.Canada - 35,3
It seems to be the fifth-largest economy in the world, judging by GDP, and research expenses, that is, for tomorrow, are tenths... Losing in this regard to Taiwan and wallowing in the same puddle with Brazil and Italy - well, the situation is so-so. Our GDP is approximately the same as Germany, but the Germans spend three times more money. Yes, of course, we can say – the question is how, but I am sure that here we will not be the leaders.
Speaking about the same GDP, it is interesting to consider the indicator of research and development costs as a percentage of gross domestic product. Here are data for 13 countries in 2022, with data for 2000 in parentheses for comparison.
1. South Korea - 4,93 (2,13)
2. Taiwan - 3,77 (1,91)
3. USA - 3,46 (2,62)
4. Japan - 3,30 (2,86)
5. Germany - 3,13 (2,41)
6. UK - 2,91 (1,61)
7. China - 2,43 (0,89)
8. France - 2,22 (2,09)
9. Canada - 1,55 (1,86)
10. Italy - 1,45 (1,00)
11.Brazil - 1,17 (1,05)
12. Russia - 0,94 (1,05)
13. India - 0,66 (0,76).
It is clear that this coefficient is very difficult to evaluate like this, because GDP can grow, it can fall, but here we are again, everything is sad. The GDP is growing, we have risen from our knees... And allocations are decreasing. Yes, we are not alone, Canada and India also have problems with this indicator.
But in general, if you close your eyes to GDP indicators, then yes, Russia’s place in the top 13 is not at the top.
And the last indicator that would be interesting to announce is the number of patent applications filed. This is precisely an indicator of how successful the scientific work carried out in the country is. After all, it can only be measured by inventions and patents, right?
According to data for 2021 (the rest are apparently still being processed), Russian applicants (as the applicant for a copyright certificate is called) have filed 25 patent applications. Of this number, 472 applications were filed with the Russian patent office, and 19 with foreign offices. And this is only 569th place in the world.
The world leader, naturally, is China. There were (think about it!) 1 applications submitted! Second place goes to the USA, 538, Japan (060 applications), South Korea (509 applications), Germany (096 applications).
But here, too, not everything is so simple. The question is how many applications were ultimately granted by the patent offices. It is clear that such information is not available due to the fact that applications are sometimes considered for years, but nevertheless. And the quality of applications can also easily raise questions, because it is one thing to patent a method for producing a paste for thin-film solid electrolyte of electrochemical devices (read - for capacitors), Russian patent No. 2739055 of 2020, and another thing - a patent from one well-known savage company from the USA to a self-adjusting watch band that automatically tightens or loosens based on biometric data collected by the watch.
There is a difference, right?
But nevertheless, the figures show the steady degradation of the Russian scientific community. In terms of inventions, Russia lags catastrophically behind the advanced countries of the world. Even if some of the inventions turn out to be nonsense, and every single patent of Russian inventors will be valuable and useful, 60 times more applications are filed in China! That is, for one Russian one there are 60 Chinese ones. And of these Chinese, if at least 1/10 turns out to be useful, this is 6 times more than ours. That's the whole deal down to the penny.
Over the past 20 years, Russia has turned out to be the only country from the “list of 13” that has demonstrated a steady decline in the number of people employed in scientific research and in funding for this research. Hence the lag behind the leading countries of the world, which is getting worse year after year. Hence the statement that the national project “Science” has completely failed, despite all the statements.
Here we must ask the question: where do the people of science go? Why is it like this in our country, but differently in Korea or Taiwan?
It's simple. The old ones die and the new ones don't come.
Now I’ll give you statistics from myself, literally a little bit, but this is simply not in the collection. What is the highest recognition of a scientist's merits? That's right, the Nobel Prize. And if it (the prize) in some fields such as peace and literature is extremely politicized, then science is still science.
Here is a selection of Nobel laureates, citizens of Russia.
Alferov, Zhores Ivanovich (1930-2019). Soviet and Russian physicist. NP 2000.
Abrikosov, Alexey Alekseevich (1928-2017, USA). Remained in the USA in 1991. US citizen since 1999, NP 2003.
Ginzburg, Vitaly Lazarevich (1916-2009). NP 2003.
Ekimov, Alexey Ivanovich (1945-). A citizen of Russia, he has lived and worked in the USA since 1999. NP 2023 in Chemistry.
Sir Novoselov, Konstantin Sergeevich (1974-). Citizen of Russia and Great Britain, has lived in Europe since 1999, and in the UK since 2001. NP Laureate in Physics 2010.
That's all that Russian science can boast of. And, pay attention, those who didn’t leave were actually Soviet old men Alferov and Ginzburg, the rest somehow preferred other shores.
But this is the elite. And those who will have to design new aircraft tomorrow and Drones, develop ships, missiles and medical equipment - where are they? But they are not there!
The state policy of the “market”, so elegantly voiced by Mr. Medvedev at one time, has done its job. The status of a scientist is so low that only a janitor can compete with him. The status, naturally, is not social; after all, a scientist is as close as possible to the blue dream of new generations “to work in an office.” The status is financial, because scientists and engineers, together with teachers and educators, are the bottom of Russian reality.
The only place where something still shines for a young and not very hard worker of science is Moscow. There are reasonable salaries there, there is science. But, as rightly noted, Moscow is not rubber. And what about science in cities outside the Moscow Ring Road and SPKAD - you can just keep quiet.
And the number of people who want to advance science at their own expense is quite naturally decreasing. After studying and working, and seeing the mockery of themselves on the payroll, those who really want to do development go to places where they are happy to be accepted and paid for it normally.
A “brain drain” from the country begins, and, if you believe the RAS, the Russian Academy of Sciences, and I don’t know why you shouldn’t believe it, then at present the “brain drain” is taking the form and volume of a general flight. In 2012, 14 thousand people left the country, and in 2021 – 70 thousand. These are, however, not only scientists, but also specialists in applied science and designers. Well, everyone knows what started in 2022, with the beginning of the Northern Military District: “young” brains rushed out of the country, who wanted to do science and not fight. In general, young scientists expressed their distrust of the authorities with their feet.
And let us note that the authorities did absolutely nothing to prevent these people from fleeing the country, because a certain “deferment” granted for a not very specific time led to the fact that the owners rushed after those who did not have deferments.
So the situation has developed: “The old people die, the young people run away.” And so it is everywhere, I understand perfectly well that in order to organize a meeting between Putin and “young scientists” they will be brought in from anywhere from all over the country and all this will be beautifully shown on TV, but this will not solve the problem.
In the collection, you can all be convinced of the correctness of my words if you go to the section that talks about the number of organizations in the field of science and technology in the Russian Federation for the period from 2000 to 2022.
The numbers there indicate that a collapse is taking place: over 22 years, the number of organizations engaged in research work, that is, research institutes familiar to our ears, decreased from 2 to 686. Almost half, if you want to be precise - 1%. And these are the institutes that developed everything from cartridges to satellites.
You can also see there that the number of design bureaus, that is, organizations that were engaged in design and development work, decreased from 318 to 249. 21%. Pure design institutes are simply dying out: out of 85, 13 remain. Almost 85% are lost. Well, the loss of three pilot plants should also be included here, where it was the superpros who assembled in metal what they came up with at the research institute and design bureau.
And accordingly, the number of those working in R&D also decreased. In 2000, there were 887,7 thousand of them, and in 2022 there were already 669,9 thousand people. A quarter “did not fit into the market”...
I suspect that if you delve into statistics from the USSR, the picture will be similar to the defeat of the Roman army at Cannes. Of course, modern computing systems make the work of scientists much easier, and comparing what was done during the Soviet Union with today is not easy, but... we are fighting 90% of what was developed then. Behind drawing boards and using calculators and adding machines with slide rules.
Defeat. I have no other word to describe the moment. Especially when on the screen I listen to some feverish nonsense about the “technological sovereignty” of Russia, about the “scientific and technological breakthrough” that suddenly occurred after February 24, 2022, about “scientific and technological progress.” Officials and deputies speak frankly and tastefully on this topic. But I look at the numbers and I don’t see progress anywhere. Only regression. And not in comparison with Soviet times, no. Quite Russian.
And what is there to do?
Problem #1. Complete discreditation of scientific work and the title of scientist. Here you don’t have to go far, the administration of any regional center is taken over, wherever you spit, you’ll end up with a doctor of some kind of science! Usually economic. The country is in disarray, and the doctors are like uncut dogs! I personally knew him and worked for him. The master reached the position of first deputy governor, but then there was a criminal case and his career did not work out. Behind me is a circus school. But - correspondence institute, candidate's, doctor's. Everything is in order.
It has simply become fashionable for everyone to have an academic degree. They have it. Deputies, officials. The complete discrediting of knowledge is obvious, because everyone understands perfectly well that a purchased title is one thing, and a well-deserved one is quite another.
In the nineties, while working in one company, I had the pleasure of listening several times to Leonid Ivanovich Abalkin, who simply worked as a financial consultant. Well, the nineties, you know. When he opened his mouth and began to talk, lighting one cigarette after another (yes, he smoked mercilessly), in the second minute he began to feel so wretched with his economic education, which was just enough to understand how smart the academician’s head was.
And then these... deputies...
Problem #2. The miserable survival of scientists. That's the only way you can call it. And this also includes the teaching staff of schools and universities. Everything is sad there too, but in a slightly different aspect.
However, it is a fact that people who want to do science must look for sponsors for this, because the salary of a researcher is similar to the salary of a housing and communal services worker with a foreign passport.
In general, there should be a vertical in which a doctoral candidate working for the defense industry or progress in a government institution, or a designer like them, cannot receive less than 300 thousand rubles. The state has no right to give him a donation for pasta once a month; a person must work without bothering himself with anything.
Yes, as our former fellow citizens do in the USA and Great Britain.
It didn’t work out - here you go, “second league”. Universities where you can train your own kind. For less money, but still.
Problem #3. Scientists are not given a voice. The times when deputies included scientists, doctors and teachers, as we all understand, have sunk into history history. Therefore, at the highest level, there is simply no one to pose and discuss the problems of the scientific community and education.
No one is working to make it not only interesting for scientists, but also comfortable to live and work.
Remember such an experiment as scientific companies? Today they are silent about them because there is practically nothing to say, but I can say a few words on this topic. It’s a paradox, but 90% of the activities of a scientific company at one university in our area boiled down to the fact that they needed to invent something to show at the next “ARMY-...”. Do whatever you want, let it be! But since development is not subject to the schedule of forums and other window dressing, the number of “new products” issued by scientific companies has dropped sharply, and they have become of no interest to anyone.
There is something to show - well done. No - and why then contain all this? Let them go clear the snow, they'll finally get down to business!
Of course, I’m pulling the wool over the eyes of the military commissar, but what can you do if we have a publication like this and you think about this first and foremost?
Problem #4. Science is absolutely not needed by the authorities. More precisely, what is needed is not science itself, but a movement around it. Officials very actively pretend to be interested in the development of science, but in reality this is all nothing more than an imitation of vigorous activity and a complete disregard for the president’s signature on the next decree.
Let's take 2016. What do we have there? And we have the Decree of President Putin on the approval of the “Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of Russia.” And speaking before the Federal Assembly, Putin emphasized that this strategy is no less important than the national security strategy.
And the movement began! By decision of the president, a coordination council was created, and SEVEN councils on scientific priorities were created under his subordination and coordination; there was a lot of smoke, noise and other special effects.
Result? Who has heard about the results of the actions of this gang, eating up budget money? So I haven’t heard...
What about 2021? It was, if anything, the “Year of Science and Technology”. Also according to the Presidential Decree. And what? And nothing.
May 7, 2018 Presidential Decree No. 204 “On national goals and strategic objectives of the development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2024.” An expanded document, it identified 12 national projects, and one of them was called... “Science”! Completion of the project is in 2024. The decree states that this year Russia should be in fifth place in the ranking of countries in terms of the level of scientific development.
That's it, 2024 is coming. What do we have there? And again nothing. There is no question of any fifth place in the rankings, and we don’t always get into the top 10, we are fighting, you know, with India and Brazil.
But what is the approach itself? He is a bureaucrat, not a scientist. Inventions and developments are not important, what is important is the line in the rating so that it can be inserted into the report and beautifully presented. They say, this is how we did a great job.
Well, on April 25, 2022, the President signs the Decree “On the Declaration of the Decade of Science and Technology in the Russian Federation.” Again, a smart document, it was planned to massively attract young people into science, to solve the most important problems for the country...
But the youth at that time were solving more pressing problems for themselves and were tearing their claws out of the country for the benefit of which it was planned to attract them. There, as I understand it, where you could work in science without fear of changing your occupation.
And it is quite natural that a year later, First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Andrei Removich Belousov (one of the few in the Government who does not make me shake), speaking in the Federation Council, said that the situation in Russian science and technology is simply catastrophic.
Yes, you can continue until February 8, 2024. There again, Putin cautiously expressed his complete dissatisfaction with the progress of the implementation of his own “Development Strategy...” and demanded amendments to the document.
It would be better to put someone especially careless in jail and demand not to make amendments, but to get the job done.
But this is different. It’s not done that way, I understand.
The Russian authorities need science only when they can grab something from the budget and buy another golf pole. But basically we are eating up the Soviet legacy, both in terms of developments and in terms of personnel. And it is very difficult to say by whom to compensate the specialists who are leaving us in both senses. Those who are brought in by the thousands today and are fenced off by the authorities are not fit for laboratory benches. They are somehow more about robbing, beating and raping, and selling drugs. But that's really a different story.
Of course, we will flounder on the legacy of our ancestors for some time, but really not for long. And then that's it. And the most unpleasant thing is that everyone who is guilty of what is happening to Russian science will calmly and indifferently watch it from the side. From their villas and houses they are not in Russia at all. They did everything in their power. And someone in the West will be rubbing their hands with pleasure. And we even know who. However, this is of little use.
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