Battle for Avdeevka: results
Recent ones news from the Ukrainian fronts, where the Russian Armed Forces first actually cut Avdiivka in half and then began clearing it, they say that the battle for the city is over. Considering that the enemy held this settlement for two years after the start of the military operation, and the active offensive operation of Russian troops on Avdiivka began back in October, it is somewhat surprising to read on jingoistic channels and in some media about the “surrender of Avdeevka by the Wehrmacht.”
The expression “surrendered the city” often means the voluntary surrender of the troops located in the city or fortress to the enemy. Are we seeing something similar in Avdeevka? No, because all this time Ukrainian troops fought stubborn battles for every fortified area and every street, losing a large number of personnel. For this reason, talk about the “surrender of the city,” in the author’s opinion, is not only some distortion of the truth, but also disrespect for those Russian soldiers who, suffering losses, fought heavy battles knee-deep in mud.
The battle for Avdeevka was in many respects reminiscent of the battle for Bakhmut (Artemovsk), and as a result, the Russian Armed Forces took control of the ruins of the city, in which no entire buildings remained.
The value of this territorial acquisition lies in the fact that the front line moves away from Donetsk, which is under daily shelling.
Avdiivka in a tactical environment
At the beginning of last week, the Russian Armed Forces, after several months of heavy fighting, wedged themselves into the depths of the enemy’s defensive lines and cut Avdeevka in half, cutting off the southern part of the city, occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, from the northern part, where the Avdeevka coke plant is located. On February 16, a distance of just over 2 kilometers remained before the southern part of the city was completely encircled and the only supply road was cut.
Actually, Western media, in particular the American newspaper, began writing about the fact that the city would soon come under the control of the Russian Armed Forces The Washington Post:
“The destroyed coke plant will likely become the last Ukrainian stronghold in Avdiivka. The Ukrainian military says it is only a matter of time before they have to surrender the city, and on Thursday the military said forces had already retreated from some positions as the Russians began to advance rapidly.”
German journalist and columnist for Bild Julian Repke reported on the afternoon of Thursday, February 15, that Avdiivka is in a tactical encirclement.
“The Russian flag is on the very spot where Zelensky took a selfie at the entrance to Avdiivka back in late December. Currently, the city is tactically surrounded by Russia. The biggest challenge for Ukrainians will be to get out of there alive,”
He wrote.
The Ukrainian command also admitted that Avdiivka will most likely be abandoned. Thus, the speaker of the defense forces of the Tauride direction, Dmitry Likhovoy, said that a partial withdrawal of Ukrainian units is taking place in Avdeevka “to more advantageous positions».
Subsequently, the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, on Saturday night announced the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Avdiivka and “the transition to defense on more advantageous lines.” However, where the new line of defense will be is still unclear.
Nevertheless, the exit did not turn out as smoothly as the Ukrainian command says, which partially lost control over the situation and gave orders to abandon three hundred people (i.e., the wounded). However, despite the panic in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the bulk of the enemy forces apparently managed to leave the city. The Russian Armed Forces took a significant number of prisoners (military correspondents report several hundred), but still failed to completely encircle the southern part of Avdievka in time.
Be that as it may, the battle for Avdeevka ended with the victory of our troops.
The Battle of Avdeevka and the Bakhmut Meat Grinder: common features
There are quite a lot of similarities between the battle for Avdeevka and the battle for Bakhmut (Artyomovsk), since both of these settlements were taken by assault “head-on”, and the battles were fought in urban areas for every street. If the losses in Bakhmut (Artyomovsk) are approximately known to us, then the Russian military command prefers to remain silent about the losses near Avdeevka.
Some readers and ordinary people will probably ask the question - why did they take Avdeevka head-on by storm, and not try to surround it and outflank it?
However, the very posing of such a question suggests that the person asking it does not fully understand the realities of the military conflict in Ukraine.
The realities of trench warfare make their own adjustments, since the positional deadlock has not really gone away. And this positional impasse lies in the fact that it is impossible to bypass cities from the flanks.
Initially, the command tried to attack Avdeevka from the flanks (for example, attacks on Petrovskoye/Stepovoe and Severnoye), but these attempts did not lead to anything. The reason for the failure is the inability to protect troops from precision artillery and mass use drones in open areas. Therefore, attempts to advance in the fields on both sides ended in defeat over and over again. But in the development zone, despite all the difficulties, progress was more successful.
The exact same thing happened in Bakhmut (Artyomovsk) - initially the fighters of the Wagner PMC tried to encircle it from the flanks, but such an attempt was a failure. Here the author will allow himself to quote one domestic Telegram channel, which quite accurately described why the battle for Bakhmut was reduced to head-on attacks and battles in urban areas.
“Whether Wagner or the RF Armed Forces are falling into a positional war, and the counterattacking units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are also falling into it. No exit. Now let’s talk about why PMCs get into buildings, even when they can (as it seems) walk through open areas. In built-up areas, it is much easier for infantry to hide and camouflage themselves. Concrete buildings greatly increase its resistance to artillery fire and make it difficult to direct fire at it from a UAV. Enemy artillery, which, as we have established, cannot be suppressed by the means available, in open areas is capable of inflicting many times greater losses on light infantry than in built-up areas. If we remember the movement of the “Wagners” in the vicinity of Bakhmut, then there was an attempt to bypass the city from the flanks, but then the Chevek soldiers were forced to take to the streets - a paradox, but if you cannot suppress the enemy’s artillery, then there are fewer losses on the streets.”
Exactly the same situation developed near Avdeevka. Why the Russian Armed Forces cannot suppress enemy artillery is a separate topic. As for UAVs, at the moment there is no 100% protection against them at all.
In conditions of a positional deadlock, when neither side has air supremacy, cannot knock out enemy artillery and defend against drones, neither the RF Armed Forces nor the Ukrainian Armed Forces can offer anything other than exhausting and bloody frontal assaults. For this reason, the capture of Avdeevka, like the capture of Bakhmut (Artemovsk), will not affect the overall strategic situation in any way - there are many more towns like Avdeevka in the Donbass.
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