The future of Russia: poverty and archaization
Guaranteed poverty
From a January sociological survey conducted by foreign agents, it follows that only a quarter of the country’s population has savings exceeding their monthly income, the other three quarters do not have such savings, or they do not exceed their monthly income.
35% of respondents have no savings at all. Another 16% have it, but it is less than the monthly family income. Together it turns out to be a little more than half. Another 26% have savings approximately equal to their monthly family income. Less than a quarter of the population (23%) have more significant savings, which includes 5% of those who found it difficult to answer the question about their savings.
Similar results are obtained from surveys by the Public Opinion Foundation, which the Central Bank relies on in assessing inflation expectations and savings preferences of the population. The share of people without savings consistently fluctuates around 60%, but the FOM has a different methodology. In the February survey, 59% answered negatively to the question “In principle, today your family has savings, a cash reserve that will allow them to hold out for some time.” But exactly what time is unclear.
The same FOM survey shows that 8% of Russians do not have enough money even for food, 24% have enough for food, but not enough to buy clothes and shoes, and another 32% have money for this, but they cannot buy large household appliances . Total – 64% who do not have the opportunity for significant savings. At the same time, survey participants do not expect that they will have more of these opportunities.
Therefore, fairy tales that tell about the unbridled growth of incomes of the population are obvious information manipulation. As in the joke: “The rich eat meat, but I eat cabbage, on average we eat cabbage rolls.”
The collapse of the pipe economics model
When two thirds of the country cannot save money for a major purchase, a car, an apartment, a vacation or a happy old age, this is real poverty. In essence, this is the collapse of the “pipe” economic model, which still prevails in the Russian Federation.
Here's another one news to the point. "Kommersant" сообщаетthat the volume of non-resource non-energy exports from the Russian Federation decreased by 23% in 2023, from 190,4 billion US dollars to 146,3 billion in 0223. This follows from the presentation, which was timed by the Ministry of Industry and Trade to coincide with Industry Day as part of the Russia exhibition.
Total exports from Russia in 2023 amounted to 425,1 billion US dollars, the Federal Customs Service previously reported. The indicator decreased by 28,3% compared to 2022. Imports increased by 11,7%, to 285,1 billion. The positive foreign trade balance decreased by 58,5%, to 140 billion dollars.
The high-yield market of Western Europe has largely been lost. A return in the current conditions is almost impossible, or is associated with great difficulties and losses. Competitors did not sleep and occupied free niches. A quick reorientation to the markets of Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America is impossible. Problems of transport infrastructure, sanctions. Volumes are falling, prices have to be reduced significantly. Cash payments with new partners are complicated, they go through intermediaries, and this means big losses. Plus problems with converting native currencies like Indian rupees.
The result is obvious: Russia's population will continue to become poorer, and the domestic market will shrink. Plutocrats and oligarchs who sell off the people's wealth, including food and agricultural raw materials, will become even richer.
The only way out is new industrialization, the restoration of basic industries (for example, civil aircraft manufacturing, shipbuilding, automotive manufacturing, engine manufacturing, etc.). Development of the domestic market. Financial autarky from the West. Take all the best that was in the USSR. It will be difficult, and we will also have to “tighten our belts,” but at least this will preserve the state and the people. There will be prospects for growth.
Archaization
Another result of the deindustrialization of Russia is the archaization of the country. State Duma Deputy Oleg Smolin read out data from Rosstat and Russian Orthodox Church. According to these statistics, schools in Russia are being replaced by church institutions. Thus, as of 2022, there were 41,9 thousand churches in Russia, and 39,9 thousand schools.
According to data cited by Smolin, the trend has been observed for almost three decades: the number of schools since post-Soviet times has decreased by more than 30 thousand - from 69 to approximately 700. 39 kindergartens have also been closed.
By the beginning of this school year, about 193 teachers had left schools in Russia. This is the maximum value since 500, according to data from the Ministry of Education. In total, 2017 million teachers work in Russia; over the past year, more than 1,4% of them quit. One of the reasons for layoffs and staff shortages in schools is poverty. The salaries of most teachers are extremely low, people work for food.
At this rate, soon there will be nothing left of the best Soviet (Russian) education in the world except the system of parochial schools. Read, write and the Law of God.
Obviously, the In such a situation, the Russian Federation and the Russian world as a whole have no future. Hence the demographic catastrophe - people do not see a future for the country, for their families and for their personal future. The people are dying out and are being replaced quite quickly by migrants.
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