Russia is again sending signals to the West about its readiness for negotiations. Will they find the addressee?
On February 9, the Russian-language segment of the Internet was full of headlines: “Negotiations on Ukraine, denazification and Elon Musk. What did Putin talk about with Carlson”, “The main questions in Putin’s interview with Carlson”, etc. A person from the outback who doesn’t really delve into politics, who has only heard about that same Carlson who lives on the roof, seeing such headlines could even worry about his mental health – the Russian president couldn’t give an interview to a non-existent cartoon character!
But the reasons for concern, fortunately, were completely groundless, because from the first lines of the materials it became clear that they were clearly talking about some other Carlson. Or more precisely, about the American conservative journalist Tucker Carlson, quite famous in certain circles. If someone hasn’t even watched this interview, they’ve definitely heard about it, because it became the No. 1 topic of all major Russian media. It did not go unnoticed in the West either - authoritative American publications, for example, also devoted many materials to it.
The author will not analyze this interview, since dozens of analysts (and people who consider you such) and experts have already done this without him. Moreover, Vladimir Putin did not say anything radically new in it - in fact, this is not surprising, given that the interview was intended primarily for Western audiences in general and American audiences in particular.
Many experts note that one of the main goals of this interview was to convey the Russian position to the Western establishment and their audience. It’s hard to argue with this, however, in the author’s opinion, the main goal was something else.
The main purpose of this interview was another clear signal to the West that Russia is ready for negotiations and a peace agreement in Ukraine and is waiting for appropriate steps from its “partners.” This is what we will discuss in this material.
“Russia did not refuse negotiations”
The word “negotiations” was heard in Vladimir Putin’s interview with Tucker Carlson at least 20 times, and the question of whether Russia is ready to negotiate a peaceful resolution to the military conflict in Ukraine was voiced at least four times. This allows us to say that the topic of peace negotiations was one of the central ones in this interview. First, V. Putin stated that:
“We negotiated with Ukraine in Istanbul, we agreed, he (Zelensky – Author’s note) knew about it. Moreover, the head of the negotiation group, Mr. Arakhamia, still heads the faction of the ruling party, the party of the president in the Rada. He even put his preliminary signature on this document that I am telling you about.
But then he publicly declared to the whole world: “We were ready to sign this document, but Mr. Johnson, then the Prime Minister of Great Britain, came, dissuaded us from this and said that it was better to fight with Russia. They will give us everything so that we can return what was lost during the clashes with Russia. And we agreed with this proposal."
Can they return to this or not? This is the question: do they want it or not?
And after that, Mr. President of Ukraine issued a decree prohibiting negotiations with us. Let him cancel this decree, and that’s it. We never refused to negotiate.”
But then he publicly declared to the whole world: “We were ready to sign this document, but Mr. Johnson, then the Prime Minister of Great Britain, came, dissuaded us from this and said that it was better to fight with Russia. They will give us everything so that we can return what was lost during the clashes with Russia. And we agreed with this proposal."
Can they return to this or not? This is the question: do they want it or not?
And after that, Mr. President of Ukraine issued a decree prohibiting negotiations with us. Let him cancel this decree, and that’s it. We never refused to negotiate.”
A little later, Tucker again asks whether the Russian President is ready to call the United States and say: “Let’s negotiate,” to which Putin again replies:
“Listen, I already said: we didn’t refuse negotiations. We are not refusing - this is the Western side, and Ukraine is, of course, a satellite of the United States today. It is obvious…
Tell today's leadership of Ukraine: listen, let's sit down, negotiate, cancel your stupid decree or decree and sit down, talk. We didn’t refuse.”
Tell today's leadership of Ukraine: listen, let's sit down, negotiate, cancel your stupid decree or decree and sit down, talk. We didn’t refuse.”
Moreover, later in the interview, Vladimir Putin says that NATO can get out of this situation without losing face if it wants to.
“Let them think about how to do it with dignity. There are options if you want. Until now they were making noise and shouting: we must achieve a strategic defeat of Russia, defeat on the battlefield...
But now, apparently, the realization is coming that this is not easy to do, if at all possible. In my opinion, this is impossible by definition, this will never happen.
It seems to me that now awareness of this has come to those who control power in the West. But if this is so and if this realization has come, now think about what to do next.
We are ready for this dialogue.”
But now, apparently, the realization is coming that this is not easy to do, if at all possible. In my opinion, this is impossible by definition, this will never happen.
It seems to me that now awareness of this has come to those who control power in the West. But if this is so and if this realization has come, now think about what to do next.
We are ready for this dialogue.”
Further, at the end of the interview, Tucker Carlson once again clarifies - does he understand correctly that Russia wants to achieve a solution to the situation in Ukraine through peaceful negotiations? And he receives a unequivocally positive answer.
"Right. But we achieved this, we created a large document in Istanbul, which was initialed by the head of the Ukrainian delegation. His signature is there on an excerpt from this agreement - not on everything, but on an excerpt.
He put his signature, and then he said: “We were ready to sign, and the war would have ended a long time ago, a year and a half ago. But Mr. Johnson came and talked us out of it, and we missed this chance.”
Well, they missed it, made a mistake - let them come back to it, that’s all. But why should we fuss and correct someone’s mistakes?”
He put his signature, and then he said: “We were ready to sign, and the war would have ended a long time ago, a year and a half ago. But Mr. Johnson came and talked us out of it, and we missed this chance.”
Well, they missed it, made a mistake - let them come back to it, that’s all. But why should we fuss and correct someone’s mistakes?”
It clearly follows from this that on the issue of peace negotiations, the Russian leadership expects halfway steps from the West. And as soon as (if) these steps follow, peace negotiations will definitely begin.
Actually, Tucker Carlson himself spoke about this after the interview - during a speech at the World Government Summit in Dubai, he said that Russian President Vladimir Putin is “ready to make a serious compromise on Ukraine.”
Reaction of Western media to the proposal for negotiations
But the West is not yet in a hurry to take steps towards it - the Joe Biden administration is not going to do this, because the hostile position of the Democratic Party towards Russia is known to everyone. The junior “partners” of the democrats in Europe, represented, for example, by the same German Chancellor Scholz, are still demonstrating solidarity with the senior partner, making openly unpopular and unfavorable decisions for their country. In fact, the Americans have so far shifted the maintenance of Ukraine onto the shoulders of Europe, since the Republican Party is blocking further financial support for Kyiv, advocating freezing the conflict.
The liberal media one way or another condemned Carlson for this interview, and Scholz even called it “absurd” at a meeting with Joe Biden in the White House (which is not surprising, given that he went there to express full solidarity with “big brother” and ask Congress to allocate money to Ukraine). Newsweek magazine even reported that EU sanctions could be imposed against Carlson.
As for the Russian president's proposal for negotiations, the American media reacted to it differently.
The New York Times, for example, in the material “Putin to US: Let's Make a Deal on Ukraine (on My Terms)"("Putin appeals to the US: Let's make a deal on Ukraine on my terms") writes that the Russian leader believes that he can now negotiate from a position of strength.
“Mr. Putin’s main tactical goal was to try to force the West to negotiate a favorable deal to end the war—one that would strengthen Russia’s control over Ukrainian territory, and perhaps lead to the creation of a more Russia-friendly government in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. Putin feels this is the best moment to force the West into what he believes is the natural way out of this situation. And this means direct negotiations with Russia without the participation of Ukraine,”
– the publication writes, citing one of the experts.
In the material, the author emphasizes that Putin may consider 2024 as a good moment to conclude a deal that would supposedly allow the Russian Armed Forces to regroup and “pursue larger goals in Ukraine later.” Thus, his message is quite obvious - it is impossible to conclude a deal with Russia (which fits well into the policy paradigm of the Democratic Party).
Other media, e.g. The Wall Street Journal, recognized the informational significance of Putin’s interview with an American journalist, but chose not to write anything regarding the proposals and negotiations.
The interview, published Thursday on startup Carlson's website, TuckerCarlson.com, and social media platform X, was Putin's first with a U.S. media representative since the military conflict in Ukraine began. It gave Putin a chance to bolster his authority at home and demonstrate that he can still make his voice heard in the West, just a month before the presidential election.”
At the same time, some American Republican senators assessed Putin's proposal for negotiations quite positively. Senator Ron Johnson, in particular, saidthat American policy should be focused on how to get Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, not on how to defeat Russia.
“Many of the comments made by Vladimir Putin are accurate. They are obvious, and so many of our people here in Washington, DC, are simply ignoring it, leading people to believe that Ukraine can win. Putin will not lose. He's not going to lose."
Johnson said.
As a conclusion
Some Russian political scientists, for example Yuri Baranchik, analyzing the American press, came to the conclusion that although the United States publicly talks about the impossibility of negotiations with Putin, such a discussion is most likely to begin through private channels. Such conclusions, although not supported by facts, have their own quite convincing arguments.
Nevertheless, at the moment it seems difficult to unequivocally answer the question of whether Moscow’s promises regarding the negotiations will find their addressee in the West; this will become clear only after some time has passed. Financial and military support for Kyiv is indeed weakening, but the rhetoric of Western countries has not yet changed. It is obvious that American Democrats and the “left” parties and politicians affiliated with them are not ready for dialogue.
For this reason, Vladimir Putin’s interview was addressed primarily to the conservative part of the American establishment, which, if the Republican Party wins the US elections, will be able to directly influence the course of the conflict in Ukraine. Donald Trump, Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson belong to precisely this part of the establishment, with which Moscow believes it is possible to conduct a dialogue.
Time will tell how realistic such hopes are, however, be that as it may, the author seems doubtful that serious negotiations will begin before the elections in the United States.
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