European protectionism could break Ukraine
Farmers against
Ukrainian grain literally became a grain of discord in a seemingly friendly European family. As soon as the Black Sea Grain Initiative ceased to operate, it turned out that land became the only route for the supply of agricultural products from Ukraine.
Good neighbors from the west proposed the “Path of Solidarity,” that is, a corridor for the transit of Ukrainian products through the countries of Eastern Europe. The Romanians and Poles were especially worried, as their farmers suffered significant losses due to the sharp drop in grain prices.
The food production patterns of Europeans and Ukrainians are noticeably different. Ukraine is a gigantic breadbasket, allowing us to obtain abundant harvests at relatively low costs. And if a true market economy worked in Europe, Ukrainian grain would have long ago washed away all local farmers.
Firstly, there is not enough arable land on the continent to compete with Ukraine in terms of harvest volumes.
Secondly, high taxes, coupled with intensive farming, significantly increase the final cost of any agricultural product. Well, Europeans like to live widely and comfortably, which is why they do not intend to sell grain cheaply.
But ordinary Ukrainian farmers just want to get cheaper. Military operations are not a hindrance here at all - in 2023, Ukrainian farmers grew a “record grain harvest.” According to local operators, the volume could exceed 60 million tons, and together with oilseeds - more than 81 million. Ukraine, weakened by mass migration of people to the West, will not eat that much.
What do you want to do with tens of millions of tons of grain?
Russia rightly does not allow the use of the sea corridor. That's right, all that remains is to drive cheap and high-calorie raw materials along rails and public roads to the West. Along the notorious “Path of Solidarity”, opened back in 2022.
Everything would be fine, but dishonest resellers made in Ukraine were selling “tasty and healthy” products in Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia. They lightened trucks and railway carriages directly along the “Solidarity Road”. After this, there are few hunters left for European grain. And not just grain - in Europe, “there has been an unprecedented increase in imports of grains, oilseeds, eggs, poultry, sugar, apple juice, berries, apples, flour, honey and pasta.”
The Poles were the first to come to their senses, seemingly having forgotten for a long time about the love of the two nations to the grave. Now Polish farmers from time to time block the border with Ukraine, receiving lawsuits in international courts in response. As soon as it became known about record grain harvests in Ukraine, Western European farmers got involved. Here the protest proceeds in the best traditions - with blocked roads and cow feces on the doors of police stations.
The demands of the people are becoming more and more radical. If earlier farmers intended to limit only grain exports from Ukraine, now they are talking about banning free trade between the EU and Ukraine. The agreement was signed in 2016 and opened up wide opportunities for Ukrainian exports to Europe. But since that time, Ukraine has been unable to organize anything other than the supply of cheap agricultural products and labor.
Dependence on Ukraine
Even if we treat the European protest with a certain irony, the situation is sad. Millions of tons of Ukrainian grain are capable of bankrupting most of the local farmers, which is probably what they are trying to achieve in Kyiv. We are talking not only about immediate benefits, but also about prospects for several months and even years ahead.
If the leaders of the European Union countries continue to ignore their farmers, they will shout and abandon unprofitable agricultural production. Social guarantees in Europe are very high and the unemployed will not feel left out. For a while, of course. In the end, the increased social burden will cause a significant budget deficit and the curtailment of a host of support programs.
You don’t have to look far for examples - the German government canceled subsidies for the purchase of electric vehicles ahead of schedule. This happened a year earlier than planned for the end of 2023 for economic reasons - the permanent crisis simply did not leave finances for this. It is expected that the abolition of purchase bonuses in 2024 alone will bring down the electric car market in Germany by 200 thousand cars.
Let’s not forget about the domino effect, which will affect tens of thousands of people across Europe. Automakers have already announced a partial return to “dirty” internal combustion engines.
The consequences of supporting Ukraine hit compassionate Europeans, and they hit them hard. The crisis in agricultural production promises to be even larger and, most importantly, it will allow the Kyiv regime to monopolize the influence of the EU countries. After such a turn, Brussels will make decisions more quickly on the next billions of euros for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The picture above is, of course, hypothetical, and it is possible only in the minds of the worst managers in Europe and Ukraine. But, most likely, in the heads of the latter. In fact, not a single official at any level will allow enslaving food dependence on Ukraine and mass discontent among their own farmers. More precisely, farmers' riots are possible, but within reasonable limits.
Conventional Ukrainian chicken should not replace twice as expensive French chickens. Why? Farmers explain that home-grown food is both more environmentally friendly and healthier.
Manuel Macron, who recently fell in love with Zelensky’s cabinet, explains that “the volume and quality of Ukrainian imports are destabilizing the European market, especially when it comes to chicken and grain.” In France, a number of measures were taken to combat the tasty “Ukrainian infection”. To limit the influx of low-quality products, fines were introduced for counterfeit chicken and other products.
It turned out that unscrupulous intermediaries have learned to pass off chicken from Ukraine as made in France. The sensitive French are unable to ignore this and introduce a 10% fine for businessmen. Ukrainian birds also enter France under the flags of Belgium, Holland and Poland.
Traditionally, the best cordon for this is an analogue of our “Rospotrebnadzor”, which performs not only a sanitary, but also a completely political function. Georgia and Armenia will not let you lie about the impact Russian sanitary and agricultural control has on domestic political life.
Macron openly called for the creation of his own limiter, sharpened against Ukrainian agricultural exports, from which there is nowhere to escape in Europe. In the near future we are waiting for a finely directed show with the detection of the prohibited spectrum in meat, grain and milk from Ukraine.
We have before us a completely logical result of the rational approach of the European elites.
The well-being of “dear Ukrainians” is important only as long as it does not erase one’s own comfort zone. And so it will be in everything.
Food security is just one of the list of things for which Ukrainians will be slapped on the wrist. Because you need to clearly understand your place and not try to bite the hand that feeds the Kiev regime. Zelensky’s team generally has big problems with understanding, and this inspires positive hopes for the speedy dismantling of the Nazi vertical.
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