Again we must defeat everyone quickly. Why is logic more important than emotions in war?
This will probably sound strange, but there are almost no topics related to combat that are passable. Over time, obvious facts are blurred out, made out to be unimportant, or completely forgotten. It also happens that seemingly quite adequate decisions of the command or government in the mouths of some leaders suddenly become almost a betrayal.
I recently listened to an interview with a London Russian who left Russia a long time ago and is now engaged in selling alcohol. It turns out that monetary rewards for signing a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry and large salaries for military personnel are disgusting. For the citizens of the country, who live almost in dugouts and do not have basic means of subsistence, this is the same “cheese in the trap.”
I apologize to hundreds of thousands of volunteers, but this is exactly what one of the famous opposition businessmen says. Allegedly, it is not we (not the country) who want to provide a decent life for the families of fighters while they break the back of another fascist bastard, supposedly this is a common purchase for mercenaries.
This is the logic of our opposition. Well, okay, what will you take from the traitors? The contents of the abscess on the healthy body of the country are trying to prove that it also represents something... They stirred up before the elections and chose a candidate for themselves. Now the most patriotic super-patriots are actively campaigning among people like them. They hope that there will be support, at least for PR, for anti-Putin among “foreign Russians.”
Today we will talk about something a little different. About what will happen next. But we will be based on what happened before and what is happening now. Many years ago, when I was first asked to analyze a situation, I read the comments and tried to explain my findings. He blamed himself for not being able to convey, not being able to show a logical chain of reasoning.
But then, when feedback from readers was established, when I talked with really smart officers and generals, I came to the understanding that this should not be done, simply because it is not necessary for those who do not want or cannot understand the general plan of the operation. These are either narrow-minded and illiterate people, or those who are always against it. There is a category that disagrees with what is being done. Always disagreeing. Out of principle...
They write to me a lot about how “it’s urgently necessary...”, “there’s no need to chew snot...”, “we need to bomb everything and everyone...”, etc. Honestly, I understand such people emotionally. I'm like that myself. No therapy if the problem can be solved with surgery... But this “surgery” will be very expensive. I'm not talking about money, about people... And not only ours...
Today many write about the wastefulness of the Russian military. A combat drone to destroy one military unit... This is not wastefulness, this is the reality of the air force. A soldier is more valuable than a box of shells, than a drone or a mine. A machine gun, a rocket, even an airplane or ship can be produced faster and cheaper than a soldier. In modern conditions, politicians and military men of all countries understand this. “Throwing hats” can only be done when there are enough heads on which these “hats” will be put on.
When the Russian Army goes to the last and decisive...
This is probably the most popular question I hear today. “So what, we took a village of two or three houses. And then we stopped.”... There are many variations of the question, but the essence does not change. At the same time, the questioner doesn’t even want to find out whether he knows how many platoons, companies or battalions the enemy lost while defending this village. It doesn't matter to him.
Sometimes I read comments on messages that a squad of our fighters knocked out the enemy from a company support group, and it makes my hair stand on end. “It should have been right on the shoulders further...” Guys, are you serious? Can you imagine the balance of power? Can you imagine what the soldiers of this squad did? Yes, at the place of command, after this battle, we urgently need to go there and present awards to all the soldiers and commanders right in the trenches and dugouts. After this fight, such a fight!..
But let us return to the question of a “decisive” offensive. Let me immediately voice my point of view. The offensive is already underway. And it is going quite successfully. This is a fact that is clear to any person who has the slightest understanding of the basics of military affairs. Not to mention career officers. Yes, this is not an attack with swords drawn, this is a different type of offensive. But this is precisely an offensive.
Pay attention to the messages from our military officers and officials from the Russian Defense Ministry. Every day we read about some successes of our units. Moreover, messages come from completely different directions. Suddenly some units occupied the Ukrainian Armed Forces' support forces in the southern direction. Then to the north. Then somewhere else. Success and clearing of the territory. And the victorious reports of the Armed Forces of Ukraine about stopping the Russians...
Doesn't it give you any thoughts? Just some lieutenant or sergeant decided to unexpectedly attack individually? Did you just sit in the dugout and decide that it was time to stretch the legs of your soldiers and yourself? Or commander tank just because there was nothing better to do, he brought the car into direct fire and fired the entire ammunition at the enemy?.. He got tired of shooting from closed positions...
Read below about who is attacking the Ukrainian Armed Forces and why. Now about what happens after such “anarchy” of our commanders on the other side. The brigade commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is sitting and suddenly there is a report that one of the system-forming support units has been taken by the enemy. What does a normal commander do in this case? “Plugs the hole” with his own efforts. That is, it either uses a reserve or removes a unit from some area of defense.
Beautiful on paper. What if there is no reserve or there is no possibility to withdraw from other directions? Report to the top and request to send reinforcements. And there, at the top, they had already given the reserve yesterday or the day before to another brigade that found itself in the same situation. Again, report to the top and ask for help. Where? From other directions! And off we go. The brigades are rolling out from north to south, from east to west and back.
And they don’t just ride, but also lose their trained personnel in battles with “Russian anarchists.” And in return they receive “volunteers” caught on the streets and in shops who do not want and do not know how to fight. Thus, even prepared, trained brigades turn into conditionally combat-ready ones. It looks like a fully equipped and trained team, but in reality it’s nothing.
So what's the result? How will “anarchists” affect the combat effectiveness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a whole?
I can’t say exactly when, but I can say how. What military correspondents are writing about today, all these minor, local successes, are in fact part of a fairly seriously thought-out operation.
Firstly, it is the exhaustion of Ukrainian Armed Forces units and the destruction of equipment and personnel.
Secondly, searching for “holes” in defensive fortifications. It is no secret that these structures were built a long time ago and represent quite serious fortifications.
Thirdly, the morale of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Let the small but constant victories of the Russians demoralize the personnel.
Well, fourthly, Russian units are building up their “fat”, training specialists, giving their soldiers leave, and so on. Not “from the wheels into battle,” but after serious training in a specific unit. Combat coordination not under bullets, but on the training ground...
I would not be at all surprised if some lieutenant or captain, supposedly unexpectedly for everyone, organizes such an attack, after which not only the unit, but also the formation will enter the operational space and destroy the Armed Forces of Ukraine without encountering any special problems. Moreover, this will not be a breakthrough of the next line of defense, but rather an access to operational space.
And then this lieutenant or captain will stand “front and center” in front of the Commander-in-Chief and report why, contrary to the plans of the two General Staffs, he collapsed the front with his attack and forced a bunch of generals and colonels to urgently come up with new plans. Right before awarding him the Hero of Russia star, report...
Why do we benefit from such tactics today?
It is clear that any operation that is planned by army headquarters cannot fail to take into account a number of objective factors that take shape at the time it begins. Moreover, from the point of view of the common man, the factors may not be externally related to the conduct of military operations. Let's look at the situation from a distance.
I’ll start, perhaps, with factors not directly related to combat operations.
Those who closely follow the Ukrainian media and Internet channels have already noticed the changes. Realizing the dire situation of the Zelensky regime, the political elite of Ukraine began to “open their mouths.” Nationalists have already begun to criticize the Kyiv authorities. Even such a “great” politician as Klitschko started talking about dictatorship and usurpation of power.
That is, to put it bluntly, a big ay-ah-ah has begun in the political elite of Ukraine. It’s frustrating when everyone is trying to “stay in white” while everything around is in shit. But these people are supported by some part of society. Including in the army.
Thus, today we can already talk about a decline in morale there: both in the political elite and in the army.
The decline in morale is no less influenced by... Americans. The point is not even that the United States cannot now satisfy all of Kyiv’s requests. There, contrary to the stories of Western media, there are enough weapons and ammunition. The problem is being deliberately highlighted in order to increase supplies. The problem is that the Americans really decided to find out where the money goes. Remember the recent searches of officials of the Ministry of Defense and in one of the companies associated with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
It would seem like a good deal. Find thieves and eliminate the money leakage channel. But this is in a normal country. In Ukraine, on the contrary, it is sabotage against defense capabilities. The fact is that the system is set up with corruption in mind. If you don’t grease it, you won’t go. One link is knocked out, and the system freezes. And it takes time to restore it.
This is clearly visible if you take a closer look at the construction of new fortifications. They started off briskly, but suddenly something went wrong. The pace of construction has dropped sharply. What is the reason? There is no official information... Let's think that the soil is frozen and so is the solution...
Now about military factors...
I already wrote about the first one above. There are almost no actually prepared compounds left. We saw an excellent example of this quite recently. I'm talking about the little-noticed capture of Tabaevka by our units. Well, the village and the village. As before, we did not notice the capture of Starch.
Only this village is in the Kharkov region. And its capture opens up great prospects for our units. In general, there is a displacement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from positions in the direction of Svatovo, and to the north - in the direction of Kupyansk. In fact, Russian troops are pushing through the defenses in all directions. Moreover, they are doing this exactly where the most trained Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters were recently sitting.
The next problem that the Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot solve is junior officers.
Platoon and company commanders. Those commanders who sit directly in the trenches. It is no longer uncommon for company commanders to hold the rank of sergeant. I'm not even talking about the platoon unit. It is impossible to fill this shortage with full-fledged commanders through training at training centers.
Using Western “volunteers” is also problematic. Among such mercenaries there are many narrow specialists, but there are almost no commanders. It is difficult to imagine a unit of the Ukrainian Armed Forces under the command of a retired sergeant or officer of any Western army. So what captives of the Wehrmacht Service quite often talk about, i.e., about the absence of a platoon or company commander in positions, is the reality of today’s Ukrainian army.
Well, back to the “open field”...
If you carefully study the photographs of Ukrainian positions, you can see a rather strange defense structure. It is typical for attacking units, but not for effectively defending units. A serious fortification, and then - almost zero... That is, behind the fortified areas, the defense is a line of trenches with minimal fortifications. What I wrote about above.
Soldiers are not born, soldiers die
I understand perfectly well that my point of view on the situation is just that, a point of view. Analysis of one specific person. There will be both supporters and opponents. This is fine. That's why headquarters exist. That’s why I decided to quote “Civil Defense”, slightly changing the lyrics of their song.
We are tired of war. I want this to end soon. And I want everyone to return home safe and healthy. But we understand perfectly well that the war must end in Victory. Our Victory. This is the whole task for the commanders and chiefs of our armed forces. To win and return sons to mothers, husbands to wives, fathers to children.
It seems to me that today I explained in sufficient detail the logic of reasoning based on already existing reliable facts. There is nothing new in this. Normal thinking process. Collection and assessment of information, analysis and synthesis of everything found and conclusion, i.e. new information.
As you can see, the problem here comes with emotions. And with “hat-kicking.” Relying on the heroism of soldiers without material addition is stupid. You cannot think with emotions and memories. “But in the last war, a month ago, a week ago...” it was different. War is a living organism. She lives her own special life. Logical and illogical, predictable and not very...
And as “icing on the cake” I left one more observation. It is connected with the already mentioned capture of Tabaevka.
Remember, the front stood there quietly for more than a year, without much change. And suddenly - taking two defensive players at once.
What will happen: the offensive will continue if the front is completely pushed through?
Will we be able to get to the Oskol River?
How about going further?
But this is a topic for another material, the time for which has not yet come...
Information