Life on loan - Russian or American
My debts are not my wealth
Russia, spending no small amount of money on its military defense, surprises the world with its ability to fight, and at the same time increase GDP, while reducing the debt burden. No, no one in their right mind is going to reduce the federal budget to a surplus, as was the case before the pandemic. But neither the Russian government nor the Central Bank clearly plans to get into large debts.
And this despite the fact that the prospect of one way or another returning into circulation the astronomical amounts seized in the spring of 2022 from our reserves is becoming increasingly doubtful. And in the West, some people are almost ready to transfer 300 Russian billions, either dollars or euros - the difference is small, to be administered by the Kyiv regime.
In fact, this would be a real gift for Russia - it would immediately have a free hand on how to deal with the assets of banks and companies from so-called unfriendly countries. It would seem that this simply suggests a conclusion - more than 300 billion have been frozen for us, but it’s unlikely to be taken away.
Simply because it is more expensive for yourself - an immediate response, and not only from Russia, may turn out to be too expensive. And yet, the experience of sanctions convinces us that the collective West is somehow strangely concerned about its own benefit. Or they are already looking very, very far into the future. According to the principle, when Moscow and Kiev are sorted out, neither one nor the other will escape from them.
Such self-confidence can only be envied, especially taking into account the dubious prospects of the West in the Middle East. However, this is not about that, but about debts and creditors.
So, today Russia, which seems to be barely making ends meet, is again among the leaders among countries with the lowest external debt. For a decade and a half now, since we managed to pay off the tricks of the 2008-2009 crisis and the absurd investments of our Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance in the burned-out funds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Maccs, Russia owes very little to anyone.
And simply “not enough” is putting it mildly, since Russia can pay off absolutely all of its external debts in less than six months. At the same time, in the European Union, which was prosperous not so long ago, there is a standard of 60% of GDP, after which the country must tighten its budget policy, or it will have to be helped by the entire Union.
Let us not now remind you that such, so to speak, “help” was given to Greece, Spain and Italy, as well as to new EU members from Eastern Europe. Because, at least, the United States, which is definitely not a member of the EU, but has close ties to Europe, has an external debt that has long exceeded as much as 100% of GDP, and Washington is not even planning to reduce the country’s debt.
It was increased both under the Republicans and Donald Trump, and it is also increasing, and at an accelerated pace, under the Democrats and Joe Biden. Nevertheless, the international positions of the world’s debtor, the United States, no matter what we tell ourselves, alas, cannot be compared with ours, Russia’s.
“Our people” will tolerate
It is possible that this has happened since then, when Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov turned his plane over the Atlantic, and a little later his deputy for economics, Yuri Maslyukov, together with the head of the Central Bank Viktor Gerashchenko, cleared away the rubble of non-payments.
And they did all this, categorically refusing both the dubious Argentine experience and financial injections in the form of multi-billion dollar loans from the IMF and the World Bank. No, playing with the continuation of privatization is welcome, agreements on joint development of subsoil resources are the same, assembling plants are welcome. But that’s all!
There is a strong feeling that this is precisely what we have not been forgiven for. And the consistent introduction of Russian business under Kuchma, and especially under Yanukovych in Ukraine, a breadbasket with a powerful industry, too. And they launched the “orange” revolution, which was actually a failure, and then the Maidan with many years of shelling of Donbass.
Considering how Russia responded to the Crimean spring, and before that, how they treated George Soros, how they removed BP and others like it from the big oil road, everything is actually understandable without any conspiracy theories. True, at the same time, inside Russia they openly cheated their general public, both with popular IPOs, and with three devaluations, and with burnt pre-reform deposits.
But these are “our own”. They will endure, and they did not tolerate such things. But the country is now without debts and without loans, although at the same time the people are regularly told about the shortage of resources. Not natural, but financial, of course. But the main thing is that no one can put pressure on us, we are, as it were, the most independent almost on the entire planet.
Although who can talk about any kind of independence now? Everyone on this planet depends on everyone else, and by and large, no one can actually extract or produce anything without outside help. Whatever the assistance may be - technical, raw materials, intellectual or financial.
The latter is the simplest, and it is not for nothing that the United States is trying to get the whole world hooked on dollars. At the Federal Reserve, Karl Marx was read very carefully - and he called the export of money the best of exports.
Hence the conclusion - by getting into debt because I can’t, in Washington, they not only and not so much untie their own hands, but tie their creditors hand and foot. In addition, the interest that the Federal Reserve pays on both loans and deposits is just pennies compared to the profits of a somewhat successful business.
That is why Russia should hardly be so proud of the fact that it owes very little to anyone. Another thing is that today they don’t really lend money to her on favorable terms, especially abroad. And even in the very East where we, as you know, have turned - and perhaps once and for all.
There is no need to talk about China and India from this perspective at all, since they would rather get into debt themselves than lend to someone on decent terms. But on predatory ones or so - as much as you like.
And now we have to go the Leninist way - a different way, lending, for example, to another traditional target of Western sanctions - Iran. If this is just a payment for a free trade zone with the EAEU, so be it, but why then are Russian banks and companies being credited so modestly and on such strict, if not cruel, conditions as in our Central Bank of the Russian Federation?
It’s better to keep silent about citizens in this regard for now - this is a separate and very worthy topic for notes. As well as the conversation about corporate debts - those that are registered with companies and banks. In Russia or in the USA it doesn’t matter so much.
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