Trump, World War III and Taiwan cocktail

Let me remind you, dear readers, of one children's rhyme:
“The month came out of the fog, took a knife out of my pocket, I will cut, I will beat, Lai Qingde, I’ll take you!”

In fact, of course, it wasn’t the month that came out, but Uncle Donald, and not Duck, but Trump, but he actually pulled out a machete and started swinging it. They say there will be a flood and a Third World War, since earthly affairs are simply no good.

Many analysts really began to look around, in fact, what is this all about? Well, when a politician of this level begins to make such statements, it’s “w-w-w” for a reason. Alas, Uncle Donald was once again wedged and there was nothing behind his words.

But some especially zealous gentlemen (and, unfortunately, some comrades were not far behind them) have already come out with the thesis that here it is - the newly elected head of Taiwan from the Democratic Progressive Party will now begin to rename the “Republic of China” into the “Republic Taiwan,” in response, China will launch an invasion and off we go...

There is a very small spoonful of truth and motivation in this, but that’s just a small one. In a huge tub. Indeed, in the secret confrontation between the PRC and the United States in Taiwan, the Americans turned out to be stronger. At least for one more term in power there will be a man who will not throw Taiwan into the arms of China.

Let's take a short excursion into history.

1950 After defeat in the civil war, representatives of the Kuomintang party fled to Taiwan and established themselves there. They did not recognize the legitimacy of the communist government; the communists spat (they had something to do), but did not give up.

For some time, official China was in Taiwan. And the representative of Taiwan occupied (until 1971) China's seat at the UN. But then everyone in the world got tired of this duality and instead of the Republic of China, representatives of the People's Republic of China settled in the UN.

Currently, only 12 states recognize Taiwan's independence, of which Paraguay is the real state. The rest are island points on the map and nothing more.

Constitutionally, the Republic of China did not renounce its rights to mainland China, although recently it has not been very active in declaring them, and has not declared its independence from it. The People's Republic of China considers the government in Taiwan to be separatists and the island itself a province. This is how they live.

What can be said about what might start around Taiwan?

Nothing. You can't say anything here, because nothing will start. Every time a representative of the DPP party wins an election, the whole world begins to prepare for what “is about to begin.” Meanwhile, a representative of the DPP is holding the post of head for the third time, and nothing has started before.

Nothing will happen this time either. Lai Qingde, for starters, is a very clear-headed person with a medical background and an expert on brain damage. Spinal, but still.

And during his election campaign, Lai Qingde said that “we don’t need to declare independence because we are already independent”. And here he is right, because declare this in the wrong terms and independence will have to be scraped off the walls.

Therefore, Taiwan will not escalate with the mainland.

Moreover, there should be no changes in relations with China either. Lai Qingde openly does not like Beijing, and there, in principle, they reciprocate his feelings. Although “If Xi Jinping comes to visit Taiwan, we will prepare him our Taiwanese delicacies.”.

Yes, “delicacies” can mean different things, but Taiwan will definitely not escalate things. This is state suicide and guaranteed. It doesn’t matter at all who starts the war in the Taiwan Strait, what matters is who ends it. There may be no winners in this war, but there will definitely be a loser. And this is not Beijing.

The Taiwanese themselves understand this very well, which is why they vote this way - for a world without war, and vote in decent numbers. Few people in the world note this, but Taiwanese democratic politicians take this into account first of all.

In general, on the islands (the Republic of China is 168 islands) a very interesting position has developed: the Kuomintang Party (these are those who lost the war to the communists), together with the First People's Party, forms the “Big Blue Coalition”, which in theory advocates for the reunification of China under the leadership of Taiwan, and there is a “Great Green Coalition” led by the “Democratic Progressive Party”, which again in theory wants the proclamation of Taiwan as an independent state under the name “Republic of Taiwan”.

Both the “blues” and the “greens” will really not be able to implement their plans. But no one forbids talking about this, although Comrade Xi grimaces at some statements.

In general, Comrade Xi Jinping and the entire CPC, to put it mildly, do not care which of the Taiwan coalitions will be in power. If Beijing decides to forcefully annex Taiwan, then the informational reason and justification will be found instantly, or rather, they will simply be taken out of sealed envelopes with red stripes.

Many people wonder: maneuvers near Taiwan are, of course, yes, but is China seriously preparing an invasion?

This is interesting, because no one from Beijing will answer such a question and will not promise not to use force. It’s clear why, the Beijing-Taipei connection is China’s internal affair, and China decides its own internal affairs independently and won’t let anyone meddle in them.

At the official level, yes, Beijing is exclusively for peaceful reunification. Not even for annexation, but precisely reunification, because the Taiwanese on the mainland are considered relatives who are a little carried away by the idea of ​​independence.

Therefore, if Beijing decides to start its own SVO, then you can rest assured that it will be arranged. But only when the mainland really understands that everything is done, there is no point in delaying it any longer.

So in Taiwan you will still have to live, live and make good, but in second position, waiting for steps from your mainland relative.

Until then, Lai Qingde has something to do: personnel shortages, inflation, economic problems and sanctions that Beijing imposes from time to time, and so on.

It is clear that the key to Taiwan's economic prosperity is its connections with the mainland. It doesn’t matter with which one, the main thing is with the mainland. And the worse they are, the worse the economy of the islands. Proven by Britain.

Plus, the DPP has a very difficult situation in the country. Yes, it seems that the party won, for the third time in a row, but everything is not so rosy.

In the elections to the Legislative Yuan, that is, to the Parliament of Taiwan, the results are as follows:

Kuomintang: 52 seats (+15)
Democratic Progressive Party: 51 seats (-11)
First People's Party: 8 seats (+3)
Non-party: 2 seats (+2)

There is an opinion that two independent non-party candidates will most likely join the “blues”, since they previously supported the initiatives of the Kuomintang and will increase the number of votes to 54. But the majority is 57 votes.

And then the “First People’s Party” comes onto the scene, with its 8 votes and initial allied relations with the Kuomintang. So the DPP’s headaches have increased significantly, since the party lost the parliamentary elections. Lai Qingde has already stated the need to expand dialogue with the opposition, but someone will really have big problems. After all, almost the main task of the DPP is to prevent the Kuomintang and its allies from provoking the PRC with their ideas about the annexation of mainland China to Taiwan. Albeit based on historical patterns.

So if Taiwanese politicians, as before, pursue a thoughtful and balanced policy towards the PRC, then there will be no war in the Taiwan Strait. Just as there will be no SVO of the PRC in relation to the Republic of China.

Comments

[parusnik]

But then everyone in the world got tired of this duality and instead of the Republic of China, representatives of the People's Republic of China settled in the UN.

Yeah, I'm tired of it, especially after Henry Kissinger's visit to China. And before the visit, the United States stubbornly supported this duality.

[Civil]

1. China does not support our media hysteria regarding Taiwan. There are no articles in the Women's Daily.
2. We separate. The Chinese communists will get everything peacefully. It's a question of time. Well, the communists know how to plan and execute.

[FIR FIR]

Quote: Civil

China does not support our media hysteria about Taiwan

China has a lot of problems even without Taiwan. Well, our media need to write about something, that’s the job.

[karabas-barabas]

Quote: Civil

The Chinese communists will get everything peacefully. It's a question of time.

Well, they are communists in form, but not in essence, in essence they are Chinese and the most thorough capitalists, at least in relation to workers and peasants. But that’s not the point, of course. On the one hand, it is true that China and Taiwan will one day be reunited, but unlikely with the PRC in its current form, which has already manifested itself in Hong Kong. And by the way, it was after the reunification of Hong Kong with the PRC and subsequent events that the popularity of opponents of reunification began to grow strongly. The PRC from the late 70s until 2008 and the PRC of comrade Xi, from the late 2000s, this is a big difference, Xi changed the vector of development of the PRC, which was once started by Deng Xiaoping. Seizing Taiwan by force would mean more disadvantages than advantages for China. And the point is not even that the capture attempt may well turn into a fiasco, since it is still necessary to carry out a galactic landing operation, with the landing of thousands of units of equipment and hundreds of thousands of military personnel at the same time, but in the political and economic consequences, for the already complete problems of China. Already today, the “Silk Road” has stopped and the Chinese are increasingly fenced off from technology and investment, and Western politicians are increasingly talking about the West’s dependence on China and the possible return of entire industries. China lives exclusively from exports and constant growth, and the loss of economic relations with the West (the main economic partner) of the PRC, like the Russian Federation since 2022, will simply lead to collapse in a country of 1500 million, as a result of mass unemployment. And the Chinese understand that the seizure of Taiwan will not bring China know-how in the production of modern chips, since this entire industry, along with its personnel, will be evacuated to third countries, but it will mean a complete embargo on chips, like in Iran, and because of this everything will come to a standstill. China does not have oil and gas to generate several hundred billion dollars in revenue to support the economy. Therefore, I do not believe that the PRC will begin to forcefully seize Taiwan in the next 10 years for sure. Moreover, it is not known how long Xi will be in power, or what China will be like after him.

[Civil]

Well, they are communists in form, but not in essence, in essence they are Chinese and the most thorough capitalists,

Apart from this passage, I agree with you on everything. The communists have goals - the welfare of the people, which is indicated in all the plans of the Chinese comrades. The capitalists have one goal - to maintain the power of the oligarchy and not to deny themselves anything. And there are very, very, very many different things. Anticipating the next argument - Marxism is not a dogma, but a way of achieving goals. Marxism is NOT the goal. And the man and his life.

[karabas-barabas]

Quote: Civil

The communists have goals - the welfare of the people, which is indicated in all the plans of the Chinese comrades.

In China there are no pensions, no health insurance, no free education. Half of the population lives in villages and outbacks, just like 200 years ago, without any amenities or social protection. Of course, in big cities and industrial centers, wages have increased significantly, as have safety precautions and some rights have appeared. But this cannot be compared with the working conditions of their Western colleagues.

Quote: Civil

The capitalists have one goal - to maintain the power of the oligarchy and not to deny themselves anything.

Where exactly is this the case? It is important that in capitalist or Western countries they came to a social market economy, which provided everyone with pensions, health insurance, housing and everything they needed. In the West, in addition to capitalists, there are also trade unions and other branches of government such as courts, parliament, and the media. What has been observed in the West over the past 30 years is an increasing influence on the policies of concerns, large private capitals, tax evasion systems, and pressure on the middle class.

[Civil]

In China there are no pensions, no health insurance, no free education. Half of the population lives in villages and outbacks, just like 200 years ago, without any amenities or social protection.

These theses of oligarchic propaganda were relevant 15 years ago) have now been refuted many times, everything is in the public domain. But this is exactly what is already happening here, the rollback of the achievements of the USSR. Therefore, these arguments are no longer used. In fact, everything in China is growing, changing and improving. Especially in terms of the 2 main indicators of state success - per capita income and life expectancy. On which we fly to tartarara, alas.

It is important that in capitalist or Western countries they came to a social market economy, which provided everyone with pensions,

What does this have to do with Western countries? We compare China and the Russian Federation. And even more specifically, for example, the Constitution. The Chinese have stated goals. Moreover, the Chinese parliament does not have a majority of businessmen. The oligarchy has no power there. There is a ravine between us.

[Nikolay Malyugin]

If Trump comes. Friend of Russia and Israel. Enemy of China, Iran, Cuba. Will tension disappear? Of course Russia is not Iran, but you will have to choose. China does not need war at all. Even with some failures in its construction, there will be much more successes. And risk what has been achieved China is in trouble.

[dmi.pris1]

Friend of Russia? Come on. No, I understand the humor... And so, you are right. China has no need for this at all. No matter how powerful the economy is, it still loses a tasty morsel as a sales market (and at the same time a certain dependence in technology) they will not

[karabas-barabas]

Quote from: dmi.pris1

Friend of Russia? Come on. No, I understand the humor...

In my opinion, Trump was in the USSR for the first time in the late 70s, but definitely many times since the 90s, Miss Beauty didn’t miss them, they say. In his life he was bankrupt 3 times, but the last time he was bailed out with money from the Russian Federation was in the 2000s, his son said this in an interview in 2013. No US president in history has been as closely linked to Russia's political and economic elites as Trump.

[novel66]

Enemy of China, Iran, Cuba.

And Mexico

[Vadim S]

A classmate has been living in Taipei for almost 20 years and is married there. She said that at the end of the XNUMXs there was a moment on the brink of war, a very serious one, when China blocked the Taiwan Strait, the Americans already wanted to die, but nothing happened. But someone always warms up the topic there, they publish numbers, plans, and there are those who are itching.

[Destroyermen]

The essence of the Taiwan problem is that a military solution is completely disadvantageous for both sides. Both sides understand that the battle for the island will be extremely intense, with significant losses, and the winner will get only the ruins.

[FIR FIR]

Quote: Destroyermen

that its military solution is completely unprofitable for both sides.

Not profitable yet. But someday, Taiwanese chips will not be so significant, and dragging your enemy into a fratricidal war is almost a victory, and the United States knows this better than anyone.

[Destroyermen]

But why do the Taiwanese, who are by no means fools, understand perfectly well that the current situation is optimal for them?

[karabas-barabas]

Quote: FIR FIR

someday Taiwanese chips will not be so important

For whom are they not significant?

Quote: FIR FIR

dragging your enemy into a fratricidal war is almost a victory, and the USA knows this better than anyone

Is it the US that Xi is inciting to attack Taiwan? In my opinion, on the contrary, they are trying to scare the PRC not to do this? Maybe there is no need to pull an owl onto the globe and drag in the USA anywhere, when in the case of Taiwan it is a purely Chinese showdown, a large PRC, swollen to the level of a superpower, is powerfully arming itself, conducting military exercises aimed at a specific war scenario and threatening Taiwan, since the process of rapprochement is recent the years have gone backwards. But I don’t believe that China will decide on such an adventure in the next 10 years for sure, or maybe longer, or maybe never. Many factors. A landing operation of galactic proportions is far from the mainland, with thousands of armored vehicles, tens of thousands of cars, hundreds of thousands of soldiers, without any personal experience in this, and it’s not a stone’s throw away, there’s at least 2000 km to swim. The second factor is the loss of the main trading partner, the West, and the PRC is not the Russian Federation, the PRC lives mainly from exports to the West and from there, in addition to money, it receives technology, machine tools, chips for production and development. Of course, China has achieved a lot over the past 20 years, but there are still many things it can’t do and are far from the level. The third factor is the PRC today, a huge immobile bubble, which is unclear how they will solve it, and the PRC economy is 30% construction of houses. It is believed that 10% and above is already a problem for the economy, for example, Spain and the collapse of the entire economy in 2008, including due to about 9% of the economy in construction, and in China 30%, which is affecting now. The debt hole there is terrible, companies go bankrupt one after another, leaving debts of hundreds of billions of dollars each. Another problem is the decline in exports of 5-30% depending on the country, in my opinion for the second year in a row. All this, in my opinion, makes SVO in Taiwan impossible.

[Akuzenka]

This just means that when a solution to a problem by military means becomes necessary for a third party, i.e. USA it will happen. They have not forgotten how to organize provocations. And they just suck, supposedly from Taiwan and that’s all.

[Igor1915]

The Ukrainian crisis has adequately shown that current problems need to be solved by economics and diplomacy; any lateral actions on a territory of more than 100 people will not lead to anything remarkable.

[karabas-barabas]

Quote: Igor1915

The Ukrainian crisis has shown that it is adequate

There was no need to show anything to those who were adequate; those who were adequate always called for the renunciation of any wars, unless of course it was a forced domestic war. Until 2014, and probably even until 2022, Russia had the opportunity, through economic and diplomatic means, to annex not only Ukraine, but also all the former republics with the Baltic states in addition. The richest country in the world. But why everything is the way it is is another topic. And of course, the PRC will not make the same mistakes.

[gsev]

Quote: Igor1915

The Ukrainian crisis has adequately shown that current problems need to be solved by economics and diplomacy

In due time, Putin solved the problem of the penetration of Afghan ISIS into Tajikistan through a military operation. It’s just that the number of forces allocated by Putin and Shoigu to the Northern Military District was too small.

[kor1vet1974]

Not long ago, the author of the airplane considered who has more and better, in case China decides to return Taiwan by force, now the rhetoric is different, all the boys, disperse, there will be no crime...

[Jacques sekavar]

After the gubernatorial elections in Taiwan, a balance between the Democratic Party and the Kuomintang was formed.
The governor of the province is from the Democratic Party, and the majority in the local congress and local authorities is Kuomintang.
Both are against unification with the PRC, while both do not reject cooperation with the PRC.
The difference is in their relationship with the United States - the Democratic Party is actually moving towards complete dependence-integration with the United States on state rights, while the Kuomintang is trying to sit on two chairs - to be friends with both the United States and the PRC.
The CCP of the People's Republic of China initially pursues a one-China policy and the whole world recognizes the Taiwan province as an integral part of the People's Republic of China, even the United States.
This gives the PRC grounds for using any measures, including force, to unify China.
The economic potential and military superiority of the United States excluded the forceful option of unification, and therefore the PRC proposed the Hong Kong option - one state formation, two systems.
With the United States behind it, Taiwan did not even seriously consider this possibility, but times have changed - the PRC has risen from its knees, the economy has taken first place in the world, unlike India, the military-industrial complex of the PRC produces all types of modern weapons, including space weapons - it produces tanks and the entire range of airplanes, shot down an exhausted satellite, created a space station, is preparing to land taikonauts on the Moon, takes leading positions in 35 of the most important areas of scientific and technological development out of 42, and Chairman XiJinping has set the goal of unifying China by the end of his third and final term in office , which will perpetuate his name along with Emperor Qin Shi Huang, and descendants will remember with gratitude until the end of time, and such an opportunity is given to a few over the millennia, and Xi Jinping will definitely not miss it.

[karabas-barabas]

Quote: Jacques Sekavar

and therefore the PRC offered the Hong Kong option - one state formation, two systems.

So they offered and offered, but they didn’t keep their word, don’t you remember what events developed there and how they ended?

Quote: Jacques Sekavar

Taiwan did not even seriously consider this possibility

Just before the events in Hong Kong, the majority in Taiwan were in favor of reunification, and the change in sentiment came sharply after the events in Hong Kong.

Quote: Jacques Sekavar

Times have changed - China has risen from its knees, its economy has taken first place in the world

The USA is still in 1st place, China is 2nd, but if we take the EU as one economic space, then even 3rd. Moreover, the USA and the EU together have about 70% of the world's GDP, and the population is 2 times less than in China. Today, the PRC has big economic problems, primarily the construction sector, 30% of the PRC economy with its space debt bubble, a decline in exports for the second year in a row, and as a result of cooling relations with the West, I don’t see any prospects for a quick recovery of the PRC economy.

Quote: Jacques Sekavar

China produces all types of modern weapons including space weapons

This is true and of course the PRC has shoveled and achieved a lot over the past 20 years, but in many key technologies and supplies it is dependent on the West and cannot replace imports so quickly, chips, machine tools, engines, steel and other materials. What can I say, China depends on supplies of Boeings and Airbuses, since they still have not been able to create their own passenger aircraft. The Chinese military-industrial complex, although powerful, has almost caught up with the US Navy in terms of the number of ships. But if we compare the total tonnage, the Chinese Navy is 2 times lighter than the American one, or on average American ships are 2 times heavier. In the Air Force, everything is even worse and not in favor of the PRC; no one really lines up for Chinese planes.

Quote: Jacques Sekavar

created a space station, is preparing to land taikonauts on the Moon

The difference between a space station and a flight to the Moon is like between a Gas 54 and a Tu-160. Get ready, well done, and we can only wish you good luck, as the whole world will receive powerful emotions from this. But to fly to the Moon, land and return to earth, you still need so much money and time that it will not happen soon, if at all.

Quote: Jacques Sekavar

Chairman XiJinping set the goal of unifying China by the end of his third and final term of rule, thereby perpetuating his name along with Emperor Qin Shi Huang, and descendants will gratefully remember until the end of time, and such an opportunity is given to a few over the millennia and XiJinping will definitely not miss it.

So it depends on how he will do it. If it works out like Hong Kong, in a diplomatic way to reunite, then of course he will become a legend in China, without a doubt. But if he decides to organize a SVO, which is incredibly risky and it fails, then his own party will most likely remove him and arrest him. After all, it is necessary to deliver hundreds of thousands of soldiers and equipment intact across the 2000 km strait between the countries, and the likelihood that the Taiwanese along the way will sink enough UDC soldiers and equipment to disrupt the NWO, in my opinion, is high. But Taiwan is still not a banana republic and is quite modern and heavily armed. I heard, read (I don’t remember exactly) that the PRC Navy wants to set up thousands of mini UDCs, for no more than a couple of tanks and hundreds of soldiers each, and so, under the cover of the Navy and a couple of aircraft carriers, sail to the shore. The Chinese, of course, calculate some percentage of losses, but they believe that due to the large number of mini UDCs they will be able to land the main forces. But this is such a gamble, it’s not like bringing up troops by land and being able to maneuver, here you have to immediately take the full risk of a possible complete fiasco, the loss of too many UDCs and ships of a different class, aviation, which will force you to turn around. And Taiwan and the United States are working on mini anti-ship missiles, aimed specifically at such mini UDCs, which can be dropped several at a time from each F-16. That is, they are looking for answers to possible military scenarios, and they are not sitting still. At the moment, the PRC is mired in serious economic problems and has no time for Taiwan. And in general, I don’t believe that Xi will decide on the military option, because failure will be too expensive not only for Xi personally. And if he nevertheless seizes Taiwan by military means, then besides the island with the population and state pathos, he will receive nothing for a while; there will be no chips, technologies or competent people there. But there will be a diplomatic and economic gap with the West and the United States, which will lead to economic collapse in China itself within a short time. After all, the PRC is not the Russian Federation, where the population is 10 times smaller, the PRC does not have hundreds of billions of dollars a year from gas and oil, and there will be nothing to mitigate the collapse of the economy.

[Jacques sekavar]

According to the agreement on two social systems in one state formation, Hong Kong actually became a free city by analogy with Danzig and pursued an autonomous internal policy and foreign economic activity, independent of Beijing. This led to the expansion of foreign capital and the virtual merger of Hong Kong government with foreign capital.
Political economic problems in relations between the PRC and the United States turned Hong Kong into a hornet's nest and a springboard for anti-Chinese activities, which led to the destabilization of the situation in Hong Kong, and the reason was the law on the extradition of criminals who fled to Hong Kong to the PRC.
After the PRC authorities suppressed the provoked riot in Hong Kong and restored order, the United States adopted a law to respect “democracy” and the rights of Hong Kongers and imposed sanctions on PRC officials. Beijing regarded all this as direct, undisguised interference in the internal affairs of the PRC. At the same time, the PRC has not limited the autonomy of Hong Kong and it still remains in a special position and conducts foreign economic activities.

The combined GDP of the US and the EU is larger, just as the combined GDP of the EU is larger than the largest economy in Europe, i.e. RF.
It is important that the PRC economy is growing at a higher rate of 5% in 23 and surpassing that of the United States. In addition, China produces the largest number of highly educated specialists, which has allowed it to take leading positions in most knowledge-intensive and technically advanced industries.

Until recently, the PRC was the largest foreign buyer of US and EU aircraft of all classes, but today the PRC has its own developments and is increasing the production of military and civil aircraft of all classes. The situation is radically changing in favor of the PRC, and this portends increased competition with Boeing and Airbus, the world's largest aircraft manufacturers, and a redistribution of world markets.

Firstly, the PRC's space program has moved from launching satellites and flights around the Earth to orbital stations, flights to the Moon and the creation of a Lunar station, possibly jointly with the Russian Federation. This is a fact and all the media wrote about it.

The reunification of China is inevitable, but how is an open question. This largely depends on the actions of the United States, which recognizes the island province as part of the PRC and, at the same time, maintaining the status quo, blackmails the PRC, restores mothballed military bases and creates new ones, puts together military blocs, removes military restrictions from Japan, and expands NATO’s area of ​​responsibility to the entire world.

[karabas-barabas]

I won’t comment on all this propaganda of the Communist Party of the People’s Republic of China, but I will repeat that the People’s Republic of China does not know how to make any civil aircraft, the very first medium-haul one, with American engines and a bunch of other things, they just made a couple. What do you say to the fact that 30% of the Chinese economy is the construction sector, which is now in big problems, with debts in the trillions of dollars? And there is a strong decline in exports. The Chinese don’t yet have anything to fly to the moon, but they can declare a lot of things.

[APASUS]

There are Chinese interests, and there are US interests in this matter. The Americans need to crush China and the world community is preparing for this; it needs to be made an outcast. But how can this be done if not through war?
I won’t say how the Americans will do here, but I think they will sink a couple of Chinese cruise ships, including passengers

[Rand-76]

Something is clearly wrong here! I remember well, exactly 20 years ago, the Internet was also full of news and materials about the Taiwan crisis! 20 years have passed, but things are still there! Cross-eyed people on both sides are playing cat and mouse!
Biden and Xi agreed in November at a meeting in San Francisco! So there should be no war in the Yellow Sea!

[nikolaevskiy78]

You simply don't see the mathematical basis of the "crisis". The fact is that the “crisis” is a fiction. After all, a crisis is a threshold state of the system, “either or”. But he's not there. Therefore, this is not a crisis, but a problem. In Taiwan's history, the whole question is how much each "US" or "China" system will offer the island in the form of economic bonuses. There are even mathematical models where the USA or China “divorce” each other using force. And whoever divorces loses.

[runway-1]

Despite the difference in positions, none of the leading political forces in Taiwan advocates an “additional” declaration of Taiwan’s independence or the annexation of the island to China (“Anschluss” on the part of the PRC). In addition, the bulk of Taiwanese society does not want to become part of Chinese society and live by its systemic rules. They are more satisfied with their standard of living and their routine...

[DenVB]

The Chinese need to start building an embankment towards Taiwan. The depth there is tolerable, 60 meters. The distance is 160 kilometers. The Chinese can easily add ten kilometers a year. And then they’re like: “Hello! Here’s the new Beijing-Taipei road.”

[ivan223]

I wouldn't be too deluded by what's happening. The situation in general is quite ambiguous and the expansion of the conflict zone from this region

[acetophenone]

Nobody will fight anyone. People are engaged in business, which will receive CP at the start of real hostilities! It’s Chekhov’s gun that definitely fires. But the Chinese have exactly the opposite.

[nordscout]

The East is a delicate matter, often unpredictable.... China will ultimately “squeeze out” Taiwan “with a bang, or a complete blockade” (complete blockade) or will get ahead of the United States, in the complete subordination of the Pacific region to its economy and trade, which will be “complete thirteenth" to both the USA and Taiwan... And the Yankees will have to bow to Russia....

[Irkit]

So let them hold a referendum in Taiwan.