Potential of the Dnieper Flotilla of Ukraine
The author has previously written about the chronicle of the losses of the Ukrainian fleet at the Black Sea. Since then, the medium landing ship Yuriy Olefirenko and a certain number of boats have been sunk, but part of the Ukrainian fleet has survived.
It should be noted that the Northern Military District in Ukraine is characterized by the absence of open naval battles, and the efforts of the Ukrainian fleet are aimed at attacks drones Russian Black Sea Fleet and support for Ukrainian landing operations on the Dnieper.
And if for a drone attack the number of ships does not matter, then for the battle for the Dnieper this is an important factor. Therefore, in this article the author will try to estimate the maximum possible number of ships that Ukraine can bring together in the battle for the Dnieper. The author took into account only directly armed ships without an auxiliary fleet.
Of the large ships in the Ukrainian fleet after the sinking of the Yuri Olefirenko, the following remained:
1. Minelayer "Balta".
2. Sailing ship "Friendship".
The minelayer, of course, is unsuitable for the fight for the Dnieper, but it can, if desired, be equipped with missile systems or used for landing (remember that Yuri Olefirenko was used for missile attacks in the Kherson direction, and not for its intended purpose).
Regarding boats, the situation is more complicated, but in total the Naval Forces have the following armed boats.
1. 4 patrol boats (“Priluki”, “Starobelsk”, “Sumy”, “Fastov”).
2. 8 artillery boats (“Skadovsk”, AKA-03, “Rovno”, AKA-02, “Berdyansk”, “Nikopol”, “Kostopol”, “Bucha”).
3. 1 anti-sabotage boat “Golaya Pristan”.
4. 2 landing boats (“Svatovo”, Sherp the Shuttle).
Thus, for the battle for the Dnieper, the Ukrainian fleet can provide 8 artillery boats, 4 patrol boats with weapons, 1 anti-sabotage boat and 2 landing boats.
However, we should not forget that, in addition to the fleet, the Ukrainian border service also has armed ships.
In total, the maritime guard of Ukraine in three detachments and one division has the following armed boats or boats on which weapons can be installed.
1. 1 missile boat of project 1241 (“Grigory Kuropyatnikov”).
2. 4 patrol ships of project 205P (“Donbass”, “Nikolaev”, “Podolia”, “Pavel Derzhavin”).
3. 4 artillery boats of project 1204 (“Lubny”, “Kanev”, “Nezhin”, “Izmail”).
4. 15 patrol boats of project 1400M (BG-101, BG-103, BG-104, BG-105, BG-106, BG-107, BG-108, BG-109, BG-110, BG-111, BG- 114, BG-115, BG-116, BG-117, BG-118).
5. 1 patrol boat of project 58130 (“Balaklava”).
6. 18 patrol boats of project 50030 (BG-07, BG-08, BG-10, BG-12, BG-303, BG-304, BG-305, BG-308, BG-309, BG-310, BG- 311, BG-320, BG-503, BG-603, BG-604, BG-607, BG-807, BG-808).
7. 11 patrol boats UMS-1000 (BG-14, BG-15, BG-16, BG-17, BG-19, BG-20, BG-21, BG-22, BG-23, BG-24, BG -25.
8. 1 boat UMS 600.
9. 1 boat Galeon Galia 640.
10. 1 boat BRIG Navigator N730M.
In total, the Ukrainian maritime security can, if necessary, provide for the battle for the Dnieper 1 missile boat, 4 artillery boats, 4 patrol ships and 45 patrol boats with weapons, 3 additional boats.
Summarizing what has been said, we can estimate Ukraine’s potential grouping on the Dnieper as 1 large ship “Balta” (which can be converted into something), 1 missile boat, 12 artillery boats, 4 patrol ships and 49 patrol boats with auxiliary weapons. Other vessels include 1 anti-sabotage boat, 2 landing boats and 3 other boats.
To this should be added the planned US deliveries. For example, there is data on the supply of 40 river boats to Ukraine (1). According to other sources, 18 coastal and river boats, 16 small patrol boats (2). And according to some sources, it is planned to supply 20 patrol boats (3).
In general, it should be noted that a certain part of the boats is destroyed.
For example, on September 25, 2022, the armored boat “Gyurza” (4) was sunk, and earlier during the battle for Zmeiny, 25 boats (2022) were sunk on February 6, 5. The total losses amounted to 10 boats: 3 air assault armored boats of Project 58181 “Centaur” (6). For example, on May 8, 2022, the Project 1241 missile boat Grigory Kuropyatnikov was destroyed in Odessa (7). On July 24, 2022, an L 451 “Malin” type landing assault boat was sunk in the port of Odessa (8), and on July 25, 2022, two Ukrainian landing boats were destroyed in the Dnieper estuary (9).
However, it is difficult to collect summary statistics due to the lack of precise indications of all types of destroyed boats, but it can be stated that Ukraine only has 1 minelayer “Balta”, 1 sailing ship “Druzhba”, up to 12 artillery boats, 54 patrol boats, 2 landing boats, 1 anti-sabotage boat and 3 other boats.
Judging by the losses, Ukraine lost 3 landing boats out of two on the list and the Gyurza boat, which for some reason is not on the lists of the fleet and coast guard. The first 6 boats sunk at Zmeiny have not been identified; perhaps they should be subtracted from the list of 12 artillery boats.
It is quite difficult to assess the scale of American assistance and its losses, since not everything indicated was delivered to Ukraine.
1. US to send 40 more ballistic-protected river boats to Ukraine.
2. New American military aid to Ukraine, including small boats.
3. Russian forces sank a Ukrainian Gyurza-class armored boat.
4. The Russian Ministry of Defense spoke for the first time about a naval battle with the Ukrainian Navy.
5. The first and last amphibious landing operation in the history of Ukraine ended in a grandiose defeat for the Ukrainian Armed Forces..
6. The Project 1241 corvette was destroyed in the Odessa region, and two S-300 air defense systems were destroyed in the Kharkov region.
7. Zakharova: Russia destroyed a warship and a warehouse of Harpoon missiles in the port of Odessa.
8. Ministry of Defense: 2 landing boats of the Ukrainian Navy were destroyed in the waters of the Dnieper estuary.
Information