Why are Russians dying out? Urbanization and economic factor
The demographic crisis is a problem currently facing most developed countries of the world. Since the middle of the last century (for Russia since the late 1960s), the demographic crisis has been defined as a clear threat to the continued existence of humanity. It is usually viewed in two perspectives - as rapid population growth in developing countries as opposed to developed countries, where the birth rate is declining and the population is aging (depopulation) [1].
In the previous part of the material “Why Russians are dying out: historical outline of the demographic situation" two aspects that affect the birth rate were considered - the destruction of the family institution and abortion. In this material we will consider two more aspects - urbanization and economic factors.
Aspect three – urbanization
Among the factors that significantly influence the birth rate, experts often cite urbanization. As a rule, the birth rate among urban residents is lower than among rural residents, and among the population of large cities it is lower than among residents of medium and small cities.
City, urbanized life in developed countries, namely where the vast majority of their population lives, attracts young people, the most energetic and ambitious, whose plans do not include a large number of children. Even married couples are postponing childbearing in the name of education and career advancement, which also leads to fewer children. It is these reasons that influence the impact of urbanization on population reproduction in developed countries.
Statistics show that the effect of urbanization negatively affects the birth rate, because the average number of children in settlements with less than 5700 inhabitants is significantly higher than in all other settlements in Russia [2].
Volume 12 of the 2002 Population Census contains a table (see http://www.perepis2002.ru/ct/doc/TOM_12_01.zip), which indicates the birth rate by region, and within the region - separately by urban and rural settlements. And statistics using the example of the Belgorod region demonstrate that in urban settlements the birth rate is 1344 children per 1000 women, and in rural settlements it is 1877. That is, in rural areas the birth rate is 1,4 times (=1877/1344) higher.
The author has already discussed the philosophical aspects of the problem of over-urbanization of the population in the material “The image of the “world city” and province in the philosophical work of Oswald Spengler The Decline of the Western World" Spengler correctly noted that a resident of a big city least of all thinks about the continuation of his own family, focusing on a career and making money, and made quite correct predictions about the depopulation of the population in megacities.
“The man of the city no longer wants to live, not as an individual person, but as a type, as a multitude: in this collective being the fear of death fades away. The thought of the extinction of the family and clan, which fills the true peasant with deep and inexplicable horror, now loses all meaning... The point is not that children are not born, but, first of all, that the intelligentsia, which has risen to the extreme, no longer sees the need for their appearance,”
- wrote Spengler.
Large cities attract people from the provinces (essentially “pumping out” the best human material from it) and migrants with financial benefits, while the lifestyle in large cities has a significant negative impact on the birth rate.
Indeed, the everyday paradox of urbanization, for example, in the USSR in the 1940-1960s, was that along with the growth of the urban population, the birth rate in cities was decreasing [3].
It should be noted that this factor in reducing the birth rate is quite difficult to influence. Last spring, at a round table on demographic problems, State Duma deputy Oleg Leonov presented data on the possibility of improving the demographic situation in Russia through low-rise construction. He supported the information with research results, noting that in villages the birth rate is higher and this is not due to the level of income or the development of medicine, but to the fact that there is much more space for the family.
This proposal actually deserves attention, and in general, we should focus on developing small cities and towns, rather than limitlessly expanding megacities like Moscow.
Aspect four – economic factor
Quite often, when talking about the demographic situation, many immediately focus on the economic factors that affect the birth rate. This is not surprising, given that the economic approach underlay the emergence of demography as a science. The essence of the economic approach is to recognize the dependence of demographic processes on the economic factor.
The weakness of the economic approach, as many researchers rightly note, is that human behavior is considered only from the standpoint of rationality and factors that do not fit into the logic of “beneficial-unprofitable” are not taken into account.
The following pattern can be traced: the economic approach ignores spiritual and psychological needs, religions, national traditions, and socio-psychological factors that influence demographic development [1]. It is probably for this reason that economic approaches have failed to solve the problem of depopulation.
You can often come across the opinion that the problem with the birth rate in Russia is due to economic problems and an insufficiently high standard of living. If we take the top countries in terms of living standards in 2023, according to Numbeo, Legatum Institute and the UN, then Russia ranks 66th, next to Brazil and China.
There is nothing special to be proud of here, but let's compare the birth rate/mortality rate and the level of natural population growth/decline in Russia and Brazil. The standard of living in both countries is approximately the same: the average salary in Russia is 49 thousand rubles (about $650); in Brazil – 2169 Brazilian reais (about 600 dollars).
Following statistics in 2022, there were 3 births and 263 deaths in Brazil. The natural increase thus amounted to 254 people. In Russia, according to Rosstat statistics, 1 people were born in 304, and 870 people died. The natural population decline amounted to 1 people.
Thus, despite the fact that the standard of living in Russia and Brazil is not very different, in Brazil the birth rate is much higher than the death rate, so there is good natural population growth, while in Russia there is a natural population decline.
For this reason, it would be incorrect to talk about the economic factor as the key one that most significantly influences the demographic situation. However, competent economic policy, of course, can stimulate the birth rate in Russia.
In the previous part of the material, the author already noted that in connection with the radical change in the social status of women in developed countries (primarily their high employment in production and business), moderate propaganda should be aimed at reviving conservative values and the traditional model of the distribution of roles between the sexes in society .
However, an information campaign alone will clearly not be enough; concrete steps must also be taken in this direction. What might these steps be?
Firstly, the state should support young families who are planning/expecting a child in every possible way - with long-term loans, subsidies, etc.
Secondly, a girl leaving work to raise a child should not be prohibited, but, on the contrary, encouraged. Perhaps someone will be offended by such an example, but in the 1930s in Nazi Germany, a working woman who got married and voluntarily left her job received an interest-free loan for a fairly significant amount - 1000 marks. As a result, by the end of 1934, about 300 thousand women left their jobs after receiving a loan.
Here is what the German historian Oleg Plenkov writes about this:
“The marriage loan (Ehestandsdarlehen) was introduced by law on June 1, 1933: the newlyweds received 1000 Reichsmarks if the wife left her job... The result was stunning: by 1935, 378 thousand loans worth 206 million marks were paid, already in 1933, there were 200 thousand more marriages than in 1932, which clearly indicated the effectiveness of the Nazi demographic policy. State marriage loans were also supported by payments from private campaigns... Loans played a very significant role in the increase in the number of marriages and in the rise in the birth rate [4].”
These particular decisions can be called an example of successful demographic policy. For this reason, financial incentives for women to leave work to raise a child could theoretically help improve the demographic situation in Russia.
Third, the amount of mortgage payments should decrease significantly with the birth of each new child. Ideally, after the birth of the third or fourth child, mortgage debt should be written off completely.
Here it is worth citing the example of France in the 1940s-1960s - back in 1946, a broad system of cash payments to families was introduced there, aimed at encouraging the birth of a first, second, and especially third child. General de Gaulle stated in a keynote speech on March 2, 1945 that
“We need 12 million healthy babies born in the next ten years.”
Generous assistance to families with children bore fruit - among Western European countries in the 60-70s, France had one of the highest TFR (total fertility rate).
In general, economic policy should be aimed at supporting families and stimulating the birth rate. It is especially important that housing be as affordable as possible - perhaps it is really worth thinking about building low-rise or one-story houses in the provinces or on the outskirts of cities, accessible to a wide segment of the population, rather than building huge high-rise buildings in megalopolises, where apartments cost exorbitant prices.
Conclusion
To summarize, it should be noted that the birth rate, as practice shows, does not always grow with the rising standard of living (rather, reverse processes occur), so this problem does not have only an economic solution. Financial stimulation of the birth rate is, of course, necessary, but it is impossible to solve the problem with economic instruments alone. The key to success lies in an integrated approach to the issue.
One of the important factors that negatively affects the birth rate is that for modern people such traditional values as family, children, relatives are lost in the flow of problems, the flow of information, which leads them astray from natural guidelines. But internally they are just as important as they were thousands of years ago. Therefore, it is necessary to create a space in society that would help people realize the importance of traditional values.
As researchers rightly note, it is changes in the value sphere within the family that lead to a decrease in the importance of childbearing, disruption of educational and reproductive functions, which poses a threat not only to depopulation in numerical terms, but also in the qualitative component of the person himself. Today, traditional family values are not relics of the past; on the contrary, they are what modern society must turn to in order to preserve itself [1].
Использованная литература:
[1]. Salimova A.G. From man to humanity: a demographic challenge to traditional family values // International scientific research journal. – 2021. – No. 8 (110).
[2]. Semenova O.V., Butovskaya M.L. Fertility in modern Russian society: the role of economic and cultural factors in the conditions of growing urbanization // Urbanistics. 2019. No. 2. P. 49–63.
[3]. Blonsky L.V. Everyday features of the process of Soviet urbanization by the early 1970s and its impact on demographic processes in the country. Modern scientific thought, No. 5, 2022. pp. 188-192.
[4]. Plenkov O. Yu. Secrets of the Third Reich. Hitler's Spartans. – M.: JSC “OLMA Media Group”, 2011.
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