The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is a catalyst for development and a source of threats to the Northern Sea Route
After a new round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict began on October 7, 2023, the Houthi movement, a Shiite militant organization that controls northern Yemen, openly declared support for Palestine and the Hamas movement in their war against Israel. At the same time, Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi warned the United States against interfering in the conflict on Israel's side, threatening otherwise by entering the war and striking the American armed forces with missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Shortly after the start of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) invasion of the Gaza Strip, on October 19, 2023, the destroyer of the 5th fleet The US Navy Arleigh Burke-class USS Carney shot down three cruise missiles (CR) and several unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) heading towards Israel, launched by the Houthis from Yemen. According to information received later, in total, the destroyer Carney shot down four cruise missiles and fifteen UAVs launched by the Houthis.
The American destroyer USS Carney, located in the Red Sea, launches a Standard (SM-2) anti-aircraft guided missile (SAM) to destroy missiles and UAVs launched by the Houthis in the Kyrgyz Republic.
Then attacks on various targets in Israel and in the Red Sea were repeated regularly - on October 27, 2023, two UAVs were launched into Israel from the southern part of the Red Sea, on October 31, Israel was attacked by ballistic and cruise missiles from the Red Sea, another CD was intercepted by the IDF on November 1, an American MQ-9 Reaper UAV was shot down.
Following a statement by Houthi spokesman Yahya Sarea about their intention to attack ships owned by Israeli companies or flying the Israeli flag, on November 19, the civilian ship Galaxy Leader was seized and towed to the Yemeni port of Hodeidah, and on November 25, an Israeli-owned cargo ship flying the Maltese flag was seized. The next day, the Liberian-flagged ship Central Park was hijacked in the Gulf of Aden. A day later, after the intervention of the American destroyer USS Mason in this incident, several ballistic missiles were fired at it, which fell in the Gulf of Aden. And then on December 3, 2023, the destroyer USS Carney shot down two kamikaze UAVs launched from Yemen.
Subsequently, the following were attacked by the Houthis: a Norwegian tanker carrying oil, on which a fire broke out after being hit by the Kyrgyz Republic, the petrochemical tanker Ardmore Encounter, sailing under the flag of the Marshall Islands, the container ship Maersk Gibraltar (under the flag of Hong Kong), the container ships Al Jasrah and MSC Paladium III (under the flag Liberia), container ship MSC Clara (flag of Panama), petrochemical tanker Swan Atlantic (flagged of the Cayman Islands) and other vessels.
As a result of the above events, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, during his visit to the Middle East, announced the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian “Guardian of Prosperity,” which included the creation of an international coalition to combat the threat posed by the Houthis.
For the first time in many years, the British Type 45 destroyer HMS Diamond hit a real air target
The question is that the Houthis and Yemen are not Iraq, but rather Afghanistan, and here it will not be possible to resolve the issue with beautiful air bombing; you will have to go down to the sinful earth and pick out the Houthis with their cruise missiles from the slums and underground tunnels.
And somehow the US coalition is not working out - according to the latest information, France, Spain and Italy refused to participate in Operation Guardian of Prosperity, maybe they are beginning to understand that “the hegemon is no longer the same”?
Meanwhile, the actions of the Houthis have already led to a severe blow to international maritime transport, trade and the economy of a number of countries. In the future, the negative economic consequences of military operations in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea will only intensify.
Economic collapse
In principle, global trade in terms of international maritime transport is no stranger to robberies, in the sense that participants in international maritime transport are robbed regularly and tastefully - just remember the ongoing epic with Somali pirates. In the end, it was not poor blacks who organized all this, but completely respectable gentlemen who spoke impeccable English.
About 12% of global trade volume passes through the Red Sea, including 30% of global container traffic. A reduction in transported volumes and an increase in delivery times is already happening. Logistics companies are trying to change routes, but they have little choice - the route around Africa will only provide multiple increases in cargo delivery times and a corresponding increase in transportation costs.
An increase in shipping risks will inevitably lead to an increase in tariffs for insurance of cargo and ships, which will also affect the increase in the cost of cargo delivery. Of course, in the end, all the costs, as usual, will fall on the shoulders of Western European losers.
“Shipping companies have been forced to reroute at least 120 container ships due to threats from Houthi rebels from the Ansar Allah movement, the ships going to ports in Europe and America on a route around Africa instead of the economically viable route through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
This was reported by the leading Japanese economic newspaper Nikkei, citing calculations by a number of international experts. According to them, as of December 20, transport companies had to change the delivery route of more than 1,6 million containers. As a result of shelling by the Houthis, a number of experts believe that the total volume of global maritime transport will be reduced by 20%.”
This was reported by the leading Japanese economic newspaper Nikkei, citing calculations by a number of international experts. According to them, as of December 20, transport companies had to change the delivery route of more than 1,6 million containers. As a result of shelling by the Houthis, a number of experts believe that the total volume of global maritime transport will be reduced by 20%.”
The Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are the bottleneck of international maritime transport
In addition, the Houthis warned that if the United States begins military operations against Yemen, they will respond by striking the oil fields of Saudi Arabia, which could result in a new round of conflict involving the Gulf countries. Ultimately, all of this could potentially lead to a major war, including the possible participation of Iran, as a result of which oil prices will skyrocket and the world economy will go downhill.
Under these conditions, a safe alternative route for cargo traffic from Asia to Europe and back is the Northern Sea Route.
From the “safe haven” to the battlefield
The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is not only the shortest sea route between the European part of Russia and the Far East. When transporting goods from Asian countries to European countries and back, the length of routes through the NSR and the Gulf of Aden/Red Sea is quite comparable, while ships will not have to pass through places where it is quite possible to get a kamikaze UAV on board, or even a winged or ballistic one rocket.
Russia is investing significant funds in the development of the NSR - on August 1, 2022, a plan for the development of the NSR until 2035 was adopted. It is planned to build marine transshipment complexes and liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, coal and oil terminals, as well as other structures. One of the most important tools for the development of the Northern Sea Route is a powerful icebreaker fleet, which has no equal in any country in the world, and only Russia has nuclear-powered icebreakers.
The newest Russian nuclear icebreaker of Project 22220 type "Arktika" (LK-60Ya) - three such ships are already in service, two more are under construction (USC)
Now the main users of the Northern Sea Route in Russia are mining companies such as Norilsk Nickel, Gazprom, Lukoil, Rosneft, Rosshelf, as well as the Russian northern territories - Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Republic of Sakha-Yakutia, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug . In May 2023, Rosatom and NOVATEK announced the launch of year-round navigation in the eastern direction of the NSR at the beginning of 2024.
In November 2022, a test shipment of crude oil was sent via the NSR to China, which was the second such shipment in stories. NOVATEK plans to export 80% of the LNG produced at the Arctic LNG-2 project to Asian countries, ensuring delivery via the Northern Sea Route within 15 to 24 days.
To ensure the functioning of the international project, Russia has completed the creation of a specialized satellite constellation designed to receive meteorological information from the Arctic regions. The constellation includes the Arktika-M and Elektro-L weather satellites. The Arktika-M satellites are capable of taking images in three channels of the visible wavelength range with a resolution of one kilometer per pixel and in seven channels of the infrared range with a resolution of four kilometers per pixel. This resolution is quite sufficient for solving meteorological problems, while from a geostationary orbit the satellite sees the entire globe as a whole.
Images from the Elektro-L satellite
Of course, detailed successes cannot but arouse the envy of Western countries, which do not want to lose control over maritime transport, and, even worse, transfer it to our country. The Northwest Passage between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans in the Western Hemisphere, along the northern coast of North America, is of little use for commercial transportation, so the only way for Western countries is to wrest the NSR from Russia.
The Northwest Passage has not yet met the hopes of the United States, perhaps everything will change as a result of global warming - in about fifty years
Recently, the number of various military exercises has increased, in which both the United States and the countries of the Arctic region - Norway, Canada - participate. The recent entry of Finland into NATO and its aggressive statements and actions towards Russia suggest that this country will also be actively involved in the Arctic confrontation with our country, ignoring the risks of becoming a radioactive desert.
Russia reacts to these actions with both political and military measures.
In particular, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) of the Russian Federation announced Russia's withdrawal from the Barents/Euro-Arctic Council after Finland did not confirm its readiness to transfer the chairmanship to Russia in the prescribed manner. Russia's withdrawal from the Arctic Council, which, in addition to Russia, includes Denmark, Iceland, Canada, Norway, the USA, Finland and Sweden, cannot be ruled out.
By the way, Norway, another Russophobe state, supported the decision to suspend cooperation with our country after the start of the Special Military Operation (SVO) in Ukraine. In addition, Russia refuses to join the High Seas Treaty, which could lead to significant restrictions on economic activity beyond the 200-mile coastal zone.
The military response was the restoration and strengthening of Arctic bases - there are no analogues to the Russian “Arctic Trefoil” yet. Arctic samples of military equipment capable of functioning in extremely low temperatures have been developed.
Arctic Trefoil is a military base of the Russian Federation on the island of Alexandra Land in the Franz Josef Land archipelago
To protect the Northern Sea Route, a new air corps has been formed within the Northern Fleet, including two fighter, mixed and helicopter air regiments, which will be armed with Su-33 and MiG-29K fighters, An-12 and An-26 military transport aircraft, and Il anti-submarine aircraft -38N, search and rescue and anti-submarine helicopters Ka-27, transport-attack Ka-29 and Mi-8AMTSh. The new air corps will be covered by anti-aircraft missile systems and electronic warfare systems.
ZRPK "Pantsir-SA" (top) and SAM "Tor-M2DT" (bottom)
Conclusions
Russia's conduct of a military offensive in Ukraine, as well as the hostile economic actions of the United States against China, clearly showed how complex the world and relationships between states are in our time. Even when at war, countries are often unable to completely sever economic ties.
The equally glaringly distant Palestinian-Israeli conflict could affect the accelerated development of the Northern Sea Route, especially if the situation in the region, located almost at the opposite end of the planet, continues to deteriorate.
At the same time, as usual, new opportunities bring with them new risks and new challenges for our country. Great powers, whose dominance is based on control of maritime transport arteries, are unlikely to want to lose a significant part of their influence, which means that when fighting in the West, we must not forget about the North.
It's time to ask a question from one popular saga - whose North? And there can be only one answer to it - ours!
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