US against the Houthis. Another strange war
It has become more and more interesting to observe the actions of the United States in an extreme situation, when it is necessary to act in several directions at once. Surprisingly, the vaunted American diplomacy, the successes of which have been advertised for a long time around the world, turned out to be incapable of working in emergency mode.
More and more often, the United States is demonstrating political “rogatism” when it seeks to resolve certain issues in the same way that the ram regulated its relations with the new gate. The method is, of course, effective. If you have a sheep's brain. He ran away and... either the gate was destroyed, or his forehead was broken...
The world press is teeming with materials about the beginning of Operation Guardian of Prosperity. Now the US target is the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement, more commonly called the Houthis. The movement is quite interesting from the point of view of its influence on regional politics.
The movement, which is supported by Iran, successfully opposes not only the government of Yemen, but also a fairly powerful state, which is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. A movement armed with modern weapons supplied from Iran, including long-range missiles. Today the Houthis are in fact the ruling party in Yemen.
It is clear that the Americans are going to act in their own style. Carrier groups will play the role of a scarecrow, being at a fairly large distance from the affected area, the Houthis are armed with anti-ship missiles with a range of up to 800 km, and the coast itself will be patrolled by coalition allies. Let me remind you that Great Britain, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain will take part in the operation.
What can the US offer to win (presumably)?
First of all, from the statements that have been made, it is completely unclear what actions the Americans are going to take. Coastal blockade? What will happen if the “savages” sink a ship? Can you imagine the reaction in the USA or in any allied country? It is unlikely that the coalition will agree to this.
Conduct a ground operation? Also a dubious pleasure. Especially taking into account the terrain, and the mood of the Houthis themselves. What is not less important. The invasion will cause a global war. In the long term, a US victory is possible, but then the operation loses its meaning.
It is urgent to unblock the Red Sea, through which the shortest route from Asia to Europe passes, through which up to 10% of all world oil is supplied.
Here it is important to understand that the main ally of the United States, Israel, whose ships are simply not allowed into the canal, is losing huge money and does not receive additional resources for the war.
What's the bottom line?
The only solution, which, although risky, is still feasible, is to escort civilian ships with warships. This does not provide a 100 percent guarantee that these vessels will not be targeted, but some protection could lead to leading logistics companies resuming voyages in the Red Sea.
Let me remind you that five leading logistics companies, which control 54% of all container traffic in the world, have already abandoned transportation on the Red Sea! These are the French CMA CGM, MSC, the Danish Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd. Let's add here the American fertilizer carrier Mosaic and the oil and gas giant BP. It turns out to be a rather unpleasant picture.
The question arises about the Houthi demands, the fulfillment of which guarantees the safety of commercial vessels. Conflicts do not happen out of the blue. People are the same everywhere, and for the most part there are not many people willing to fight. Hence, negotiations are necessary. But... The Houthis' demands are directly related to Israel's actions in Gaza.
Washington is now in exactly the “time pressure” with which I began this material. On the one hand, the Jewish state is determined to slaughter the Palestinians in Gaza completely and thus gain new territories and legalize its previous seizures. Talking about security is pro-poor. That is why Israel is trying to copy the actions of the German army of 1941–1942 on the territory of the USSR.
On the other hand, hatred in the Arab world is growing. And in the world in general. More and more people see the essence of this war. More and more people, even active supporters of the Jewish state, are beginning to talk about the need for a ceasefire. And there has already been talk about forcefully coercing Israel into peace.
It seems to me that the topic of forceful enforcement of peace was brought up on purpose, and not at all by Islamic countries. There are no such conversations there. For example, the Iranian media understand and talk about it very well, that the war with the Houthis is nothing more than an “invitation” to war for Iran. Like the strikes on Syria and Lebanon, this is an invitation for these countries to participate in the war.
Israel's image losses are so great that now only another “big war” with its neighbors can somehow offset these losses. Remember how many decades Israel maintained the image of a sufferer, against whom everyone around, and how skillfully it used this to receive quite a lot of help from the United States, for example.
Instead of conclusions
Alas, it is not yet possible to see anything in the future. It seems to me that even the Americans themselves do not know this. This is not the first time I’ve written about the fact that Washington never really thinks about “new moves” in the field of foreign policy. If somewhere a plan has already worked and goals have been achieved, then a similar plan is implemented in another similar situation.
The calculation was based on fear, on fright. We have taken out the baton, and you must obey us. But for some reason they don’t obey. Not to be afraid of. I think the Houthis have studied North Korea's actions well. In any case, the tough answers are very similar to the decisions of the North Korean leader.
What's next?
In my opinion, nothing. The ships will patrol the Red Sea and the strait. Civilian ships are sad to go around Africa and carry cargo much longer and more expensive than now. And the press will print threatening statements from both sides. And this will continue until the moment when Israel announces the end of the operation in Gaza.
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