On the possible real role of the Houthis in the US party around Israel and the Gaza Strip
Guardian of Well-Being
On the afternoon of December 19, the Pentagon almost casually announced the start of the military operation “Prosperity Guardian” to protect shipping in the Red Sea from the Yemeni Houthis. L. Austin repeatedly stated that such an operation was being prepared throughout December. The coalition, as the United States usually does in such cases, was able to assemble even before the New Year. In total, the United States announced the participation of 39 states, but the active players, again according to tradition, will number no more than a dozen. These are mainly European countries.
The composition of the direct participants is interesting in that it includes Spain, Italy, France, Canada, Great Britain, Norway, but there are no Germany and Belgium, which could allocate decent funds from their navy. But Bahrain is present there, which, in fact, takes on the function of a representative from the entire Persian Gulf region, risking that the people in the same region will declare it a renegade, albeit an unwilling renegade... What bonuses will Manama negotiate for forced participation in this coalition, we will see in fact next year.
The topic of the operation against the Houthis threatens to become the second most important after Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip and will acquire a whole set of alarmist theses and assumptions. At least in the sense that external forces have drawn (are drawing) the United States into a new war in the Middle East, preventing Washington from throwing all its strength into the fight against China and further in the same spirit. And it must be said that there really are scenarios in which it can thunder, and thunder thoroughly. Another thing is that such scenarios are not the main ones.
In the meantime, everything points not to the fact that the glow of war in Yemen will flare up, but to the fact that Israel will be more and more persistently pushed to complete the operation in the Gaza Strip by the deadline that has already been set in Washington - by the end of January.
And here we will have to wait for certain shifts in international politics, since the finalization of the massacre in the Gaza Strip will mean the end of the political activities of B. Netanyahu’s cabinet, and the beginning of an internal political discussion unprecedented for Israel in modern times, which in turn will affect US politics and the intensification work on all platforms on the topic of two states. There is definitely enough room for everyone here for the most daring political reviews.
In this regard, the Yemeni Houthis are simply an irreplaceable asset for each side. And who will be able to use this asset and how, and at what price, we need to take a closer look here.
Significant events
Many significant events have taken place in Yemen this year.
Firstly, the United States itself, presenting its conceptual program in May, devoted a good third of its volume to the topic of normalization of Yemeni-Saudi relations.
Secondly, official representatives of Saudi Arabia established a direct dialogue with the Houthi movement with the mediation of Oman, which put a long pause on the fierce and costly confrontation for both sides.
Third, the political parties of former South Yemen have reached a strong consensus that a united Yemen is an idea that has not proven effective and it is time to return to two states. This, by the way, really corresponds to the traditional ethno-tribal structure of this ancient region, and the question is already in the details, coordination of interests and the level of mediation. And we will see that the ongoing operation at sea will still play a role in this process of demarcation into North and South.
The background and course of these events can be found in the April material "Difficult but necessary lessons from the Yemen conflict."
One of the strongest and most established narratives is that the Houthis are “a Shia movement, a proxy force for Iran in the region that acts in Iran’s interests.” And everything seems to say the same thing.
However, if you start to look into it in detail, it turns out that the Shiites are not quite Shiites, and not quite pro-Iranian, and the original program of the Houthis is not pro-Iranian or pro-Saudi, but in general is almost Hashemite. It turns out that the United States did a lot in the 2000s (albeit indirectly) to strengthen the Houthis, and the Houthis’ methods of work, as well as their organization, are very reminiscent of the well-known Kurdistan Workers’ Party. And the ideas of a united Yemen under a divided Saudi Arabia, which would later become known to the media, were forged in the United States under D. Bush Jr. and so on and so forth.
We traditionally sympathize with the Houthis, identifying them with the whole of North Yemen. In fact, Riyadh has made a very, very bloody mark in the region, which does not make its leadership look good. However, it should also be noted that the Houthi project posed a much greater threat to the Saudis than the fight with Iran itself. This was an almost existential threat, just as, by the way, the region that the Houthis occupy had and still has an almost sacred character for the Arabs.
And here it is necessary, again, to note that although the United States supported the Saudis with intelligence data, at a higher level the Obama administration was already doing too much to strengthen Iran, which almost freely supplied funds, food and weapons to Yemen. And there was so much of this “too much” that the democrats could not help but notice it in Riyadh and still remember it to this day.
That is why current functionaries from the US State Department had to spend so much time trying to find a solution in Yemen. And now we’ve arrived - now we need to assemble a coalition to protect shipping from the unleashed Houthis, who seem to be backed by Iran.
But the question is, is it really only Iran behind them (the Houthis) in these naval attacks?
Palette
If on the battlefield the Houthis gained well-deserved fame during the war, then in terms of politics this movement is a force that can and knows how to work within the framework of what can be called a “multi-factor model.” Play on different boards, and in such a way that for one player on one board they will make a certain plus, and on the other - a certain minus. In a world where the media sets the agenda through the “either, or” principle, there are only two colors, and the palette disappears completely.
And the palette is much more interesting.
On the one hand, no one doubts (and no one hides this) that the Houthi military-industrial complex (which exists and works), as well as the basis of missile weapons and UAVs, are based on Iranian roots.
On the other hand, it is no less interesting to think about where all this stuff is going today. It seems to be heading towards Israel, and the US Navy is shooting down, but it is also flying at sea vessels that are carrying oil and container cargo to Israel.
One can also assume where and how Iran can obtain information about ships that transport oil to Israel; there are known ships that make regular voyages, and their owners are affiliated with Israel, but the situation is more complicated.
History recent Houthi attacks at sea are as follows. On November 19, a Houthi helicopter lands a boarding group on the Galaxy Leader ship (owned by an Israeli company), the ship is diverted to Yemen. Further, two more ships associated with Israeli freight were attacked with the help of missiles.
On November 26, the Houthis try, according to the first scenario, to seize a chemical tanker owned by a company also managed by the Israeli Zodiac group. The attack on the chemical tanker is repelled by the Americans, while the Houthis fire at the American destroyer, but they fire in such a way that the missiles hit points 16–20 km from the US Navy ship, i.e. this is more of a demonstration than a real attack.
But then the detective begins.
Detective
In early December, the Houthis attacked two cargo ships and a container ship, which were no longer directly connected with Israel. Another American destroyer shoots down up to fifteen at the same time dronesaimed at the same offshore objects.
Previous ships, although they didn’t actually transport anything to Israel or from Israel, were at least directly connected with Israeli business, but here, in order to at least somehow discern the Israeli presence, one would have to know the complex ownership structure and have access to the underside of the trade document management system.
One can, of course, assume that the Houthi intelligence has direct access to insurance registers, knows the initial inputs for container transportation and can track intermediate points of entry and exit of cargo on container lines, but this is hard to believe.
The Iranians, whose two military frigates are currently patrolling the sea in the Yemen area, of course, could share something, especially in terms of transporting crude oil, but full monitoring of dry cargo ships and container deliveries is already in the realm of some kind of aerobatics. Even if Iran gave information to the Houthis, this means that it was leaked to Iran itself by people, some of whom are not close to Iran at all. These are Southeast Asia, the USA and Europe.
As a result, on large container lines they begin to reason quite logically if someone (the Houthis) can be aware that somewhere in container stacks among tens and hundreds of “boxes” there is cargo somehow connected with Israel, and someone has access to this kind of documentation (and it, like any bills of lading, is the personal responsibility of the operator), then it is better to change the route as a whole. And operators, like the monsters Maersk, MSC, Lloyd, redirect container ships to bypass Suez.
The noise is terrible, but everyone is at work. The coalition led by the United States is heroically driving away Iranian frigates, carrying out convoys of merchant ships, and remotely but accurately trying to suppress Houthi launch points. At the same time, demonstrating the capabilities of its Navy and finally reassembling a semblance of a direct military alliance.
The Houthis act as defenders of Gaza, which adds points to Iran. Saudi Arabia, without entering even close to such a coalition and distancing itself from it, continues to negotiate with the tribes of northern Yemen and the same Houthis. Moreover, Riyadh has directly and officially called on the United States “to show restraint in response to the Houthi attacks.” The UAE, taking advantage of the situation, is further consolidating its influence in Aden and Socotra and building relations with the political coalitions of South Yemen.
And the entire power of logistics, insurance, investment and trade structures begins to put pressure on the Israeli leadership from all sides, so that it wants it or does not want it, but fits into the deadlines that Washington outlined earlier - the end of January 2024. Bahrain alone came out to take the rap for all the Arabians. But even then only because the headquarters of the 5th is located in Bahrain fleet US Navy.
But Germany, which holds perhaps the most pro-Israeli position in Europe today, refused to participate in this chess game (for now it has refused), although the forces of the German Navy would not be at all superfluous for the coalition.
After the first and understandable euphoria that arose in Israel against the backdrop of seemingly harsh and ultimatum pressure on the Houthis, the realization will very soon come that, if Israel can stubbornly resist in the military-political or foreign policy area, then with the involvement of financiers and traders , investors, insurers, etc., this persistence will have a deadline.
Yes, the United States, to please part of the political establishment, and even working for the Republican electorate, will definitely play a close game with Iran - with incidents, exchanges of rhetoric, statements and provocations, but the final point here will not be Iran, but Israel.
After all, the terms of the new truce in Turkey have largely already been agreed upon. It turns out that the Houthis, and behind them it turns out that Iran is against this? Well, the United States will help eliminate this circumstance - sort of curb Iran and the Houthis, and show Israel how tough Washington is against its opponents.
And if Israel senses these moments and makes an exchange according to the principle “the barn is on fire, the barn is on fire,” then alarmist scenarios are really possible here, when the Americans or members of the coalition will have problems already under the flag of the supposed Houthis.
But so far everything looks like it is the Houthis who are the indispensable and therefore the most expensive element in a complex and cynical party.
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