The President's visit to the UAE and KSA: an afterword without euphoria
Despite the euphoria
The President’s visit to the Arabian Peninsula caused almost euphoria in the domestic media space, where, among other things, Western publications were quoted telling about Russia’s Middle East push and its joint plans with Iran and China, global plans in the region, and the prospects for cooperation with the Gulf monarchies etc.
This is all great. But let's come down to earth and turn to boring statistics. And it testifies to a significant instrument of control on the part of Washington over kings, emirs, sheikhs and other oil-rich aristocrats of the desert. We are, of course, talking about the US Air Force and Navy bases on the peninsula.
Who is the true master of Arabia?
And in the recently visited by the President of KSA and the UAE, in terms of the American military presence, everything was good and businesslike.
The kingdom thrives at Prince Sultan Air Base, used by the US Air Force. And in the UAE, the Yankees are generally richly represented: starting from the technical support point of the 5th operational fleet US Navy (area of responsibility - Persian Gulf and Western Indian Ocean) in the port of Fujairah, to the Al Dhafra Air Force Base. Ships flying the Stars and Stripes flag have the right to enter the capital port of Abu Dhabi.
No, ours can also come at the invitation of the emir, as evidenced by the recent visit of the frigate Admiral Gorshkov. But we are talking about permanent deployment based on the material and technical base.
Al Dhafra
I remembered in this regard: the Soviet Union, which had much greater capabilities than modern Russia (to be fair: it began to possess them in the mid-seventies, of course), was faced with significant logistical problems associated with the functioning of the 1967 th operational squadron. The modern Russian Navy cannot in any way be called an instrument of influence in the Persian Gulf.
Oman is located southeast of the UAE. There, Americans and Arabs generally have a strong spirit, despite the difference in their worldview. The United States may use military airfields at Thumir, Masirah and Musnan, as well as the capital Muscat.
To the north of the UAE is Qatar, somewhat reminiscent of the Vatican in its best years: the territory is small, but there are plenty of financial resources and leverage. As well as ambition. It is not for nothing that it was Qatar that undertook to bring the Hamas Politburo, which has its headquarters in Doha, and Israel to the negotiating table. For the latter, this became a symbolic Walk to Canossa.
Qatar is nominally very independent and has repeatedly ignored Washington's accusations of sponsoring terrorists. However, the same reproach can be addressed to the White House regarding the patronage of al-Qaeda and ISIS banned in Russia, against which it portrayed a lukewarm war.
And the Americans were probably frowning because of Doha’s support for some “wrong” terrorists, not fed by the CIA and the Pentagon.
And, nevertheless, contradictions are contradictions, but it is in Es-Salia that the US Unified Central Command (UCC) is located, the basis of the naval component of which is the mentioned 5th Fleet.
By the way, its commander, Vice Admiral C. Cooper, is not only a high-ranking military man, but he also performs political functions, as evidenced by his visit to Kazakhstan, which clearly demonstrates the US interest in closer contacts with Astana specifically in the naval sphere, given the republic's access to the Caspian Sea.
But let’s continue: behind Qatar hides barely visible Bahrain on the map. But he is also in business: the kingdom is home to the headquarters of the 5th Fleet and much more, for example, the Sheikh Isa US Air Force Base.
Vice Admiral C. Cooper received not a pompous, but a warm welcome in Kazakhstan
And Kuwait, of course. After the well-known events that became the starting point for the destruction of Iraq, the emirate is tied to the United States with strong military bonds, as evidenced by the military bases of Camp Buring, Ali al-Salem and Ahmad al-Jaber.
Let's not forget the satellites
In addition, one should not discount the military bases of US satellites on the Arabian Peninsula - the once great Britain, which has a naval base in Bahrain - Manama (port of Mina Salman). France has a military base in Abu Dhabi, and, if I'm not mistaken, its combat aircraft can use Al Dhafra airbase.
Moreover, both ex-empires periodically rave about plans to revive their former greatness and do not intend to leave the region, serving as a kind of props for American imperialism in the Gulf.
So you can talk for a long time and with a feeling of deep satisfaction about the end of the dominance of the United States in the Middle East, but it is worth taking into account the factor of its military presence in the Eurasian underbelly, from where the Americans are extending their tentacles into the sphere of Russia’s strategic interests on the East coast of the Caspian Sea and the Central Asian post-Soviet space in in general.
The USA leaves and remains, or a new concept of the Indo-Pacific region
And this despite the fact that, yes, since the time of Barack Obama, the White House has declared a shift in the center of gravity of its geopolitical interests to the Asia-Pacific region.
However, moving the center of gravity is not the same as leaving, especially taking into account the growing rapprochement between the United States and India in the field of military and economic cooperation, which should cause concern for Russian officials responsible for the development strategy of the military-industrial complex, which is largely focused on contracts with New Delhi.
And there are plenty of reasons for concern: just remember the Indian side’s refusal from a joint project with us to create a fifth-generation multi-role fighter FGFA and the preference, several years ago, for the French Rafales over the Russian Su-30 MKI - by the way, no less effective and more budget-friendly.
The very rapprochement between the United States and India indicates not so much a shift in the White House’s global interests from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region, but rather the formation of a kind of crescent, stretching in a huge arc from Okinawa, across the Indian Ocean and to the sands of Arabia.
Actually, this is reflected in the concept of the Indo-Pacific region, which is now being very actively discussed within the American political establishment. It is not for nothing that the topic of engineering and technology is invariably present in reports on the “US National Security Strategy”.
In this article, I briefly touched only on the military component of the United States’ cooperation with the Gulf monarchies, without mentioning their presence in Turkey, Iraq, Syria and even Jordan, where American military bases are not officially located.
But this is just official, and so the United States, by the way, along with the French, uses the Prince Hassan airbase in their interests. Of course, economic ties with Middle Eastern states are no less profound. And economics has always determined politics.
Hope for MGIMO
And in conclusion: of course, I do not deny the importance of the President’s visit to the peninsula, especially considering the circumstances of the present and difficult moment for us - both military and political, due to the situation in Transcaucasia that is not in our favor, which, however, is not still a stalemate character; unstable situation in Afghanistan, which could lead to the use of bored militants by the counter-elites of the former Soviet Central Asian republics, whose secular regimes can hardly be called stable.
I will once again emphasize the gradual rapprochement between the United States and India, which does not meet the interests of Russia, and the uncertainty of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy position, complemented by its dubious internal stability.
In the context of the above, rapprochement with the Gulf monarchies, as well as the creation of a naval base in Sudan, a promising dialogue with a number of African states, which was confirmed by the recent St. Petersburg forum; maintaining positions in Syria (although this also has its own logistical difficulties), the upcoming accession of Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to BRICS - indicate that the isolation of Russia, previously declared by Washington, has failed.
But all this, while stating the very successful work of S.V. Lavrov’s department, is still not evidence of the Kremlin’s geopolitical triumph in the Middle East - and, in fact, the Presidential Administration is unlikely to view a working visit to the peninsula in this way. The big game continues, and perhaps the enemy is now preparing a counter move.
We need to look into the future, calculate the steps for the future and trust in the unlost - unlost, right? – MGIMO’s ability to train good diplomats. For China and Iran, which are gaining military-political and economic weight, coupled with India, which is expanding the sphere of its geopolitical influence, will defend their interests in the Middle East and build a format of relations that is beneficial to them both with the monarchies of the Gulf and the Americans who are not going to leave there.
Использованная литература:
Mamonov M. “Return” of the USA to Asia
Melkumyan E.S. New trends in US policy in the Persian Gulf region
Borisov T. India and USA cooperation in the field of military technologies
The concept of the “Indo-Pacific region” as an attempt to reshape the region
Tugolukova L. The American factor in the “Game of Thrones” of Qatar and Saudi Arabia
Information