Conflict in Guyana - only oil is to blame
Don't light the fire, Maduro
There will almost certainly be a war between Venezuela and Guyana. As you know, Venezuela lays claim to the western part of the neighboring country, rich in natural resources. It just seems that the conflict around the province of Essequibo, which is more than half of Guyana, began suddenly.
The smoldering center of war existed a long time ago, but only now has it grown from smoldering to flame. History The confrontation dates back to 1814, when negotiations at the Congress of Vienna led to the former Dutch colony becoming British. Guyana is now the only country in South America where the official language is English.
At the same negotiations, it was decided that the disputed territory of Guyana-Essequibo passes from Venezuela to the United Kingdom. The lands were undeveloped, so even then independent Venezuela, as they say, swallowed this failure.
Due to the economic underdevelopment of this territory, the population there has changed little since the time of colonization: a significant part of it belongs to the Arawak Indians living in the deep jungle. And this could theoretically be another justification for Venezuela’s claims.
At the same time, there are also motives of historical justice: they won’t say directly in Caracas that the war is being fought for oil, otherwise the international community might accuse the international community of lawlessness. In Venezuela, the Indians, including the Arawaks, mixed with the Spaniards, form the basis of the population.
For the majority of these mestizos, the native language is Spanish, but this does not change the situation. Former President Hugo Chavez, a cult figure for the country's modern regime, emphasized his Indian identity, although he grew up in a family of Spanish-speaking teachers and, naturally, received his military education in Spanish.
Territory of other people's claims
Legally, the alienation of the territory of Western Guyana by Great Britain can easily be considered insignificant, since Guyana is now an independent state. By the way, there is nowhere to complain, since the Vienna Congress is long gone. But in modern courts, Venezuela can easily prove its historical right to the territory of its own claims.
The US position on territorial disputes is of great interest. During the crisis in relations between Venezuela and Britain at the end of the XNUMXth century on the issue of territorial claims, the United States accepted the position of Venezuela, citing the well-known Monroe Doctrine. But as a result of long-lasting negotiations, the United States actually surrendered Venezuela.
It is interesting that by that time there were already rumors about a war between the United States and Great Britain, and it itself was weakened by the Boer War. This arrangement even became the basis of one of Jules Verne’s semi-fantastic novels. However, a new enemy was already looming on the horizon - the coalition of Austria-Hungary and Germany.
This was much worse. As a result, the decision on Essequibo was again made not in favor of Venezuela. The sluggish confrontation between Venezuela, first with Great Britain, and then with independent Guyana, lasted for quite a long time, until it entered an active phase in 1981.
Then Venezuelan President Luis Herrera Campins did not denounce all agreements on border demarcation. Immediately, the Venezuelan army staged exercises near the border with Guyana. Guyana reacted with a note of protest, blaming Venezuela for the impending war.
Guyana further sharply criticized the US and UK for the events in the Falkland Islands and Grenada, as, according to its government, unhealthy precedents were being created that could be followed by Venezuela. Subsequently, relations between Guyana and Venezuela improved, but now everything happened quite unexpectedly.
The comparison is not in favor
One can, of course, assume that examples were Russia’s annexation of new territories, the rather controversial resolution of the Karabakh issue, and China’s growing claims to Taiwan. But the behavior of the Venezuelan authorities differs sharply from the listed precedents.
China is only concentrating its naval forces around Taiwan, the Karabakh issue was resolved by agreement between the authorities of Azerbaijan and Armenia with the tacit consent of Russia, the annexation of new territories to the Russian Federation was decided on the basis of referendums held precisely in these territories.
Venezuela acted in an extremely original way by holding a referendum among the population of their country. For some reason, no one in Caracas asked about the consent of the residents of Western Guyana itself. That is, the Venezuelan authorities, in an effort to obtain new oil and gold deposits, acted in accordance with school and army morality: “I prevail in spirit over you, you sucker.”
Well, let us finally return to the US position on the Guyana issue.
Despite the previous vague movements of the United States and Guyana’s claims, now, of course, Washington will support Guyana. But clearly not because they have sympathy for the multinational population of the country, and not even because Guyana is English-speaking.
The annexation of Western Guyana by Venezuela threatens to drive American oil companies out of the oil-rich region. Such a loss in the leadership of what is still the largest economy in the world will definitely not be tolerated.
Will there be a US war with Venezuela?
Most likely no. The failure of the operation in Afghanistan clearly sobered up the American command. And the supply of weapons to Ukraine cost a pretty penny, so it is unlikely that the United States will provide military assistance to Guyana.
There is another more acceptable option: to organize a color revolution in Venezuela, despite the fact that the first such attempt after the sudden death of Hugo Chavez failed. The option with Guaido failed, and Maduro sent most of the opposition to jail before the referendum, but the American puppeteers will always have candidates for the role of puppets.
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