Why recent events bring to mind the “Trump Agenda”
Media mainstream
If you take and conduct what is called content analysis in the Russian segment of international expert assessments and reviews, then there can hardly be any doubt that the end result will be the short word (or rather, the name) “Trump”.
They sympathize with Trump and the Trumpists, just as they sympathize with the plight of the American people, who find themselves under the yoke of godless democratic transvestites. Either in the USA there is inflation without industrial growth, then deflation without growth in consumption, then homeless people are being taken out of San Francisco, then in Los Angeles entire areas are flooded with “synthetics”. In general, it remains, by analogy, only with the opposite sign, to stand up for the American white man and slightly correct the slogan “Free Angela Davis.”
The author will not provide verbatim quotes from our media mainstream, which simply copy Trump’s theses in terms of “prognostication.” In principle, each reader can simply open the theses, for example, V. Ramaswamy, and use them as a verification template.
The love of our domestic sense-bearers for the Trumpists (or rather, the elites behind them) is long-standing and quite understandable, although an analysis of this domestic phenomenon deserves a separate, full-fledged material.
But media expertise is not so important, however, it is only a marker, but an adequate interpretation of the actual actions of the players. And the actions of recent months look very interesting.
It is believed (at least this is what we hear from every voice) that the meeting between J. Biden and S. Jinping in San Francisco failed. But if you take the transcripts in full, you get the opposite impression.
They, of course, did not agree in the sense that there is an agreement and signatures under it, but they took the principles of coexistence as a basis. And “peace for two” after the APEC summit is no longer a figure of speech. Yes, they will polish it, they will write down the details, the United States and China still have to go through close elections in Taiwan, but the markings for the foundation have already appeared.
In response, Russia refused to join the Chinese concept of the “Community of the Shared Destiny of Humanity” and announced a new campaign “to the South.” As we saw from the visit of the leader of Belarus to Beijing, such routing did not arouse enthusiasm in Minsk. Actually, it will not arouse enthusiasm anywhere, if we take our neighbors in Central Asia, the EAEU, Iran or even Pakistan.
There is no doubt that Beijing is watching with interest the concept that Moscow, the UAE and Riyadh decided to make. In fact, Russia did not want to be the right hand in the Chinese model of the “Community of Shared Destiny,” so China will look at these ideas of an alternative pole.
Deep strata
But all these ideas were not born out of nowhere, and the intensity of “Trumpism” in our media, which gives rise to all these fantastic constructions like the “New Austro-Hungarian Empire”, “an urgent withdrawal of the United States from Eastern Europe”, discussions of when The Baltic states will enter the ruble zone: immediately after Trump’s arrival or a little later, and so on and so forth. The “semantic beard” has grown so much that soon one’s knees will no longer be visible. But the breeding ground here is not only propaganda, but deeper layers that propaganda captures and relays.
The joining of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Russia and, optionally, India in the future is not only an opportunity to use the American idea of the “Third Pole”, which has stalled in the Gaza Strip, it is still a fundamental opportunity to form a separate raw materials model, associated primarily with the oil industry. And the need for it can precisely be determined by the fact that the probability of D. Trump’s arrival is assessed by the top as non-zero. Along with his approaches to the commodity sector.
Well, apparently, we need to go back some time and remember what, in fact, the so-called. "Trump program" There is no Austro-Hungarian Empire or anything else, but there really is oil.
It is generally accepted in the media that Trump’s program is a clearly anti-Chinese project. Yes, he himself builds and has built his information campaigns, as it were, on counteracting China. By the way, a rather interesting paraphrase from one of his interviews regarding China: “We buy from them, they buy us.” Trump also struck at the Shayrat airfield in Syria just in time for the Chinese leader’s visit to the Mar-a-Lago estate.
However, what did D. Trump do almost immediately after coming to the White House? Left the so-called Transatlantic (TTIP) and Trans-Pacific (TPP) partnerships. They say the trade balance is not surplus. But the fact is that D. Trump could not have given China a greater bonus than leaving the TPP during that period.
What is the idea behind TPP? The fact is that the United States offered countries that are all members of the WTO to create a separate space “above” the WTO. Such a large trade superstructure over procedures and standards.
And before D. Trump, the Obama administration generally succeeded in this. The interest was very high. But it was precisely the TPP that contributed to the potential weakening of the Chinese value zone in Southeast Asia. D. Trump withdrew from the TPP and launched something like a trade war against China. The result? China has de facto created its own value cluster precisely on the basis of Southeast Asia.
To say that after this D. Trump was almost to his face called briefly but succinctly “idiot” is to say nothing. If only because the trade deficit is not the main problem in the US economic model.
It is possible to use these theses in conjunction with theses about “lost jobs” for voters, but D. Trump went further. And no one asked him to go further, even from those who stood behind him. Because at the heart of D. Trump’s program is oil, and everything else develops from it.
In 2017, when D. Trump was confirmed in office, there was a lot of controversy around his future steps. Moreover, everyone was preoccupied then with the Syrian conflict, which has somehow been forgotten today. Having not found a single clear answer to the question about D. Trump’s program, the author decided to turn to his work himself, fortunately it turned out to be quite multi-page.
There are not only manuals in the style of “how to become a billionaire” or “think big,” but also quite programmatic guidelines, like works co-authored with R. Kiyosaki. Then the material “Trump Identification” was born, which at one time was quite popular (on VO you can see it in archive for 2017).
The steps that D. Trump tried to take subsequently only confirmed the thesis about the “oil platform” of this program. And here’s another big question: if D. Trump had not entered into a clinch with the deep state, how much he would have been able to do on the main project.
The conceptual difference between the deep forces behind D. Trump and those represented by B. Obama is oil. Obamaites after the stories of 2010–2012. they didn’t want to mine on a large scale in the USA. D. Trump resembled a teenager who was given an ice auger by adults and told to drill holes. He was ready to drill through everything: the ice on the lake, the ice on the shore, the shore, and the floors and walls of houses. He is ready now. When asked about his first steps in office, he replied: “Drill, drill, drill, drill.”
Trump was and remains a principled opponent of any cartel agreements; another thing is that by the main cartel he means OPEC. OPEC for D. Trump is pure evil. But that doesn't mean Trump doesn't like cartels; after all, the US rose on cartels. It’s just that the second point of the program for the United States sounds paradoxical (within the framework of the American price model): “Cheap oil for the United States, as expensive as possible for everyone else.”
For Iran, there is no problem of separate pricing for the internal and external markets; the Arabians and Norwegians do not have such a problem. But in the USA, pricing is not just exchange-based, but also tied to world markets. This is how they fought the cartels at home.
As a result, global price growth stimulates domestic production in the United States for the domestic market, and the decline also cuts domestic production. Surprisingly, although the models with Russia are different, the effect is the same - world prices are rising, production and domestic prices are rising, world prices are falling - domestic production is falling, but domestic prices are rising.
It would be even theoretically impossible to separate internal and external pricing within the American model if a number of prerequisites were not provided. The first is constant access to the cheapest possible raw materials, isolated from world trade. The second is to ensure the withdrawal of excess income from other players who cannot be separated from world trade. The third is control over the processes of production and supply. Utopia? Not really.
Significant steps
What was one of the first significant steps of D. Trump's cabinet?
He went against the regime of N. Maduro in Venezuela. Venezuela is seen in the United States as almost a personal treasure trove. By the way, this storage room contains a volume corresponding to the second place in the world. E. Abrams, an absolutely unprincipled person and a technologist of shadow affairs and coups, was thrown into Venezuela. D. Trump and E. Abrams lost to Venezuela. It was pulled out then by the whole world, or more precisely by Iran, China and Russia. But now the N. Maduro regime is cooperating quite vigorously with the United States, and it is not a fact that they will not reach an amicable agreement on Guyana.
What other significant step was there?
Anti-migrant wall in Mexico. But it is no secret that it is in Mexico that American and Mexican companies form regional pricing and distribute production volumes. This is why the wall is needed, as an incentive for Mexico City. Similarly, D. Trump frightened Canadian Prime Minister J. Trudeau when he threatened to make adjustments to free trade agreements. The point is that Canada is one of the main suppliers of oil to the United States.
Collecting under one umbrella the cheapest possible raw materials from nearby pantries and controlling a significant part of the supply, in theory, should have raised world prices, clearing the way for domestic production in the United States, the volumes of which would have been exported. By the way, the most interesting thing is that today approximately the same thing is happening! When Trump was cautiously hinted that the US reserves were not bottomless and were quite limited, he preferred to talk about “the best technologies in the world.”
But an increase in world prices would inevitably lead to an increase in the income of the OPEC cartel, or OPEC+, which is so disliked by Trump, which, in fact, was born largely as a response to the enchanting ideas of the “chief of drilling” in Washington.
D. Trump remained a true American conservative here too. He proposed seizing additional income from such producers. One could see the faces of the Arabians whom D. Trump forced to sign arms contracts in six months. For example, if D. Trump had not left, Saudi Arabia would have been forced to translate preliminary agreements into purchases... worth $400 billion.
Similarly, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and even Bahrain were included in the framework of this program. For Iraq, D. Trump generally envisaged a program of in-kind expropriation, and this time in the form of raw materials.
Russia, too, as part of a fantastic deal, was asked to look more flexibly at the reserves that were released annually under the so-called. "tax maneuver". After all, they can not only be stored within the framework of the IMF’s ideas, but also sent to the needs of good people, for example, directly into the American financial system.
This fountain of ideas only at first glance seems like a fountain; in fact, the whole question, in essence, was only in the monolithic nature of the American state apparatus.
Otherwise, even such a mastodon as oilman R. Tillerson could not pull off such negotiations. Moreover, if we look carefully, many problems were ultimately solved by the Biden administration, only without such strain and emotions. Because the device did not interfere, but helped in many ways, it’s just that the methods were not so eccentric, and the media accompaniment was not at all like Trump’s clownery. And D. Trump in this case will come to well-prepared ground.
So, if in fact our “higher tier” considers Trump’s realistic chances of returning to the White House, then it is logical that Moscow and Saudi Arabia decide to form something like an alternative center, which, from a supply point of view, will provide up to 35% of volumes , and having also influence in the Persian Gulf, in OPEC, the conversion scheme for transactions with Russian raw materials will allow, in the event of the actual arrival of the eccentric D. Trump, to put up a barrier to his ideas, and in case of loss, to stop those ideas that the already democratic one takes from his piggy bank administration (and she takes them).
The only confusing thing about all this is that we have already launched a whole information campaign on the new era “Russia plus the Global South.” The basis here, as we see, is predominantly raw materials, and it will not be very easy, if not impossible, to drag Iran into this game. And this is not exactly what is meant by common markets, common production, common trading principles, etc. It is unlikely that it will be possible to make industrial breakthroughs here, although maintaining the parameters for the oil industry will be possible and effective. But the “pole” is still not entirely about oil.
Frankly speaking, the chances of D. Trump returning to the White House are quite slim. After all, the flower of the current model was not raised for that in the USA; the bride was dressed up for the wrong groom. But we must be aware that we see how many raw material ideas that belonged to D. Trump’s programs are in fact being implemented without him. And the fact that they are not presented so brightly does not mean that they are not in development.
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