Shocking forecasts from Saxo Bank for 2024 - not predictions, but warnings
Demanded shock...
After three years in the shadows, when the pandemic and the SVO in Ukraine clearly interfered, the attention of the general public is again focused on the forecasts of Steen Jacobsen, chief expert at the Danish Saxo Bank. Let us remember that he was the first to coin the term “perfect storm”, but the Dane was not considered a “catastrophist” for a long time.
However, recently, despite the fact that he predicted the “perfect storm” and even Trump’s defeat in the 2020 presidential election absolutely accurately, it was somehow not customary to listen to Jacobsen. It was then, in the midst of a pandemic, that the Danish banker was called a catastrophist in the press and dismissed as an annoying fly.
Today Jacobsen's predictions are more original and much more fun than ever before. Consider the denial of America's right to continue living under capitalism, as well as the strong desire to see Robert Kennedy Jr. as the new owner of the White House in Washington.
In comparison with this, oil at $150 per barrel, you see, is just nothing. Well, a brilliant idea, or rather a hint to the Saudi royal family - buy the Champions League, is not a joke at all. This is a real market recommendation. Buy! Insane profits are guaranteed.
On the pages of VO the lucky Danish banker, not always the same lucky oracle, regularly found a place (2021 will be even worse...), especially since he regularly announced his forecasts not just anywhere, but in the capital of Russia.
Now it seems he has nothing to do here, however, the Russian media should not neglect his opinion. Simply because, based on Jacobsen’s assessments, domestic business, no matter how much you criticize it, has more than once managed to turn seemingly the most unfavorable scenarios for the future in its favor.
Although now one cannot help but doubt what is so unpleasant about oil at 150 “green”. Then our Central Bank will no longer have to humiliate the ruble.
If earlier Jacobsen was still able to pass off his forecasts as specific future scenarios, especially since the “perfect storm” went almost flawlessly, then inconsistencies began to appear. Both the chief economist himself and his bank had to go into the shadows for some time.
...And cheap optimism
It seems that it helped, and everything shocking is in great demand today. Saxo Bank, let us remind you, is purely an investment bank in profile, which has suffered greatly from sanctions and counter-sanctions, due to the fact that few people today risk making truly risky investments. The bank is literally eager to be on the horse again.
The situation is favorable, because no matter how much money military operations consume, free funds are looking for uses. Hence the conclusion - the easiest way to attract them is through a shock, preferably an informational one, since it is much cheaper.
Until now, Mr. Jacobsen and his bank preferred not to emphasize the fact that in their forecasts they proceed primarily from an analysis of low-probability events, but now this is deliberately emphasized. Additional yellowness with Robert Kennedy and American capitalism only contributes to this.
Instead of the “perfect storm”, which turned out to be not as stormy as someone wanted, Steen Jacobsen launches a completely new turn into the information field - “the end of the road”. His selection of predictions for 2024 is named after that. And in the foreground it is by no means the approach of the world to the end of the “old normal”.
And certainly not advanced technologies that will help “solve old problems.” Who will you sell such cheap optimism to now? What’s newer is the idea that those same technologies, such as digital money or artificial intelligence, are creating new problems, perhaps much more dangerous ones.
In general, according to Steen Jacobsen, moving along the path that the world has followed since 2008 after the global crisis, which did not turn into another “Great Depression,” we can only expect an “uncertain future.”
The development potential with stable geopolitics, low inflation and interest rates – the notorious “quantitative easing” – has completely exhausted itself. It seems that everything collapsed due to the pandemic, but, according to an expert at Saxo Bank, COVID itself turned out to be nothing more than a litmus test in this regard.
To scare means to sell
The best of Steen Jacobsen's latest forecasts, of course, is that it will not be the new American president who will be sold, but that same oil at $150 per barrel, although there is still someone to resist this. Not everyone, like impoverished Brazil, is in a hurry to join the OPEC+ agreement.
No matter how hard the oil exporting countries from OPEC and Russia, which has joined them, try, it is impossible to reduce production and export quotas indefinitely, and if this practice continues, it will definitely break through somewhere. And the jump in oil prices will be slowed down not by any of the independent exporters, but by stagnation in the leading economies - China, India and the USA.
The States will not be saved even by the collapse of capitalist relations predicted by Steen Jacobsen, preferably without a civil war. Moreover, there are already plenty of contradictions in the United States, in addition to social ones. The degree of tension, however, is not at all easy to determine. Well, the same Steen Jacobsen can not only overestimate it, but also underestimate it.
He still has a lot of interesting things in his forecast package, but I’ll note this only so as not to force readers to delve too deeply into the topic.
So Jacobsen promises a health crisis due to cheap diet pills. The collapse of the American treasury pyramid is also ahead (It's Treasuries, baby! And the bell tolls for them), and money "will move from private corporations to the state."
Here is the end of capitalism, and complemented by something similar in Japan, where the National Bank must abandon restrictions on the yield limits of government bonds. This, according to Jacobsen, “will also cause disruption in global bond markets.”
Finally, the European Union will impose a two percent tax on the richest. And this final forecast immediately made the author remember who we called “Misha - two percent.” For those who forget, he is a former prime minister, and now one of the foreign agents, if I’m not mistaken.
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