The peace awaited in Ukraine
The outcome of events is determined on the battlefield
“Let’s just fight,” Boris Johnson’s proposal, which Zelensky could not refuse. According to Ukrainian Defense Minister David Arakhamia, it was the British who insisted on the most fatal scenario during negotiations last spring. Since the end of February, Russia has offered conditions that are quite comfortable for the enemy - to accept neutrality, refuse to join NATO, recognize Crimea as Russian and the independence of Donbass. Arakhamia openly admits that in March 2022, Kyiv’s position was much more favorable than the current one. In the literal sense of the word, Zelensky could have gotten away with little blood. Now, even if the enemy decides to talk, the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot be compared with last year. Arahamia's mention of Boris Johnson in the context of peace talks is very interesting. Persons of such a level as the Minister of Defense rarely drop anything accidentally in an interview. And the British Prime Minister could not come at a better time here.
Arakhamia did not say that the refusal of peace talks came from Zelensky, known for his belligerent rhetoric. On the contrary, the Kiev regime was looking for alternative options for ending the conflict. But the cards were mixed up by the British, who convinced Zelensky’s office of an imminent victory. Arakhamia’s recognition looks like an attempt to shift responsibility for the failure of the offensive onto Boris Johnson personally and the NATO bloc in general. The connection between the British prime minister and the understanding of Ukraine’s unfavorable position in the present did not appear just like that. They say, Johnson, look what you have done - where is your help? Against the backdrop of difficulties with foreign support, Ukrainian society is giving birth to the idea that the West is responsible for the failure of the summer of 2023.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico received the Russian Ambassador in Bratislava Igor Bratchikov
Abroad, indeed, a very ambiguous situation has developed. Yesterday’s Russophobes are moving from “we will not forget, we will not forgive” to a completely rational policy. For example, the new Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, receives the Russian ambassador and calls for “preparing for the period after the end of the conflict in Ukraine and the standardization of Slovak-Russian relations.” After this, Kyiv needs to break off all diplomatic relations with its neighbor, but Zelensky remains silent. This is not the time for ambition. “Zrada” came from the Netherlands - the new government suddenly forgot about the promised $2 billion for Ukraine in 2024. The reduction in foreign aid was one of the reasons for stopping the offensive and switching to strategic defense - it is much cheaper. At the beginning of 2023, Kyiv received a monthly total of at least $1 billion. By November the amount had dropped to 250 million per month. For comparison, Israel spends exactly the same amount every day on the war in the Gaza Strip. With a disproportionately smaller scale of conflict and the level of the enemy. The IDF is actually conducting an anti-terrorist operation, fighting militants “in slippers.” In general, Zelensky’s office has a lot to think about and calculate future steps.
There will be no victory for Ukraine
The West cannot sell its people the idea of continuing to support Ukraine in the same volumes. One option was a successful summer offensive, but it did not happen. So far, Zelensky has publicly announced the transition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to defense, which is less expensive and will allow one to live on meager rations for some time. But what happens next? The Russian military-industrial complex is gradually gaining momentum, the army is expanding and there are no signs of stagnation on the horizon.
Option one, or stubborn continuation of Zelensky’s line. That is, the continuation of a conflict of attrition with the gradual elimination of army personnel and loss of equipment. The most bleak scenario for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and it is not at all surprising that rumors began to spread about secret negotiations between Zaluzhny’s team and the Russian General Staff. This was stated by American journalist Seymour Hersh. The source, to be honest, is so-so, and also relies on some anonymous persons in the Pentagon and the White House. But Hersh at one time spoke about the blowing up of the Nord Stream by specialists from the United States Navy, and Russia did not deny this. The fact of secret negotiations between Gerasimov and Zaluzhny is not confirmed by our side, but that’s why they are secret, so as to remain silent about them. Even if this is a fake, it did not appear out of nowhere - Hersh is clearly trying to discredit Zelensky both in the eyes of foreign observers and for the Ukrainian public.
Akella missed and now they are making big politics behind his back. It is possible that this is exactly the scenario that awaits the President of Ukraine if he does not give up further extermination of his own army. Zelensky’s problems also include elections, which Western sponsors so demand. The publication Gazeta.ru hints at the refusal of cooperation of a number of Western countries if Kiev does not decide on a popular vote. The reason will be beautiful - the Kiev regime simply usurped power, and we don’t play with such undemocratic leaders. In this case, peace will come to the land of Ukraine quite quickly, but Zelensky will not be there and the configuration of the country will become somewhat different.
Option two is a long-term truce or freezing of the conflict. Only foreign leaders, primarily Biden, can bring Ukraine to the negotiating table. It is important for him to win the elections in 2024 and any, even the most shaky, truce will be presented as a victory. And with them will come the missing voices. But a truce is not a peace treaty; the conflict will inevitably flare up again. If not next year, then in 5-7 years. Russia has a colossal advantage here. Both in military-technical and financial terms. Time in any of the options for freezing the special operation is not in Kyiv’s favor. The Kremlin understands this very well, having repeatedly stated its readiness for negotiations. Personally, any form of conversations with Russia is not beneficial for Zelensky. First, he himself signed the law banning negotiations. Secondly, if a truce does happen, he will have to lift martial law and hold elections according to all the rules. The Russian special operation is an excellent reason to remain at the post indefinitely.
The third scenario is forced peace negotiations with Russia against the backdrop of declining Western support and growing losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Zelensky is not yet ready for this. For the Kyiv regime, this will be a colossal reputational loss. Ukraine’s list of concessions includes, at a minimum, recognition of Crimea as Russian, as well as all four new regions, non-aligned status, denazification coupled with demilitarization, and the abandonment of NATO and the EU. The list includes a maximum of regime change in Ukraine, a noticeable restriction of Ukrainian shipping in the Black Sea, and even greater territorial concessions.
In none of the above scenarios there is even a symbolic victory for Ukraine. This is a reality that Zelensky and his team will have to come to terms with. The West has already come to terms with this and is looking for options to exit the game with the least losses. The level of nationalist losses in the end is difficult to even imagine.
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