Prospects for the Visegrad Four

States of the Visegrad Four

It is known that the Visegrad Troika, formed in 1991, became the Visegrad Four after the collapse of Czechoslovakia in 1993.

After the prime ministers of Hungary and Slovakia, Viktor Orban and Robert Fico, respectively, in the interests of their states, refused to take anti-Russian positions, an actual split of the said organization occurred.

What kind of unity can we talk about if half of the participants express a fundamentally different point of view on the armed conflict closest to them and on the participants in this conflict, including Russia, on which the well-being of both Hungary and Slovakia depends?

Moreover, one of the members of the Visegrad Four, Poland, is clearly inclined towards its other neighbors, which is confirmed by the creation in 2020 of the Lublin Troika association consisting of Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine.

What next?

Austria is now approaching Hungary and Slovakia in its views on Ukraine. This is happening, among other things, thanks to Ukrainian “refugees”.

If we take into account that Serbia has traditionally friendly relations with Russia, then we can talk about the formation in the near future of a new European union of states, namely the “Danube Four”.

This name would best reflect the geographical principle of the new international association, not only because the Danube flows through the territory of all these countries, but also because the capitals of all these states lie on the Danube: Belgrade, Bratislava, Budapest and Vienna.

Promising association – “Danube Four”

Despite the fact that at the beginning of March 2022, Austria supported anti-Russian sanctions and was, as a result, declared a country unfriendly to Russia, already on April 11, 2022, Federal Chancellor of Austria K. Nehammer became the first European leader after the start of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to meet with President V. Putin in Moscow (more precisely, in Novo-Ogarevo). This visit was a manifestation of the Austrian side's concerns about Russian energy supplies, on which Austria is highly dependent.

Although the Austrian authorities publicly criticized Russia's actions in Ukraine, economic ties between Moscow and Vienna remained stable in 2023, especially in the financial and energy sectors: Raiffeisenbank has no plans to leave the Russian market; Gas imports from Russia continue.

Croatian President Zoran Milanovic takes a clearly anti-Ukrainian position in his statements. Uneasy Serbo-Croatian relations can be leveled out by the membership of both states in the “Danube Four”, or in this way conditions can be created for their leveling. In any case, the unsettled nature of Chinese-Indian relations does not prevent China and India from being members of BRICS.

And then, you see, Romania and Bulgaria will catch up.

Some political scientists might argue that Serbia is not a member of the European Union. In response, one can ask the question: what are the prospects for the European Union itself?

The Danube Four can become the personification of European sanity and sovereignty, a new springboard for European integration, just as BRICS became a springboard for global integration, and not just a counterweight to the GXNUMX.

We wish good luck to our neighbors on the Danube...

Comments

[Ross xnumx]

And then, you see, Romania and Bulgaria will catch up.

Let's stop spreading idle speculation. The bestial grin of one capitalist world is absolutely no more attractive than the grin of another.
The absence of principles of social justice, advertising of non-existent positions, open expression of goals and a clear ideology of opposition to capitalism, which fills its coffers at the expense of ordinary citizens, are lousy prospects for cooperation.

We wish good luck to our neighbors on the Danube...

In addition to wishes for good luck, there should be specific preferences that can evoke sympathy or other good memories.

Cabbage, of course, is a good thing, but you need to keep meat snacks in the house!

©

[parusnik]

The Danube Four can become the personification of European sanity and sovereignty

When it becomes, then we’ll talk, but for now it’s written on water with a pitchfork.

[Vladimir80]

we can talk about the formation in the near future of a new European union of states, namely the “Danube Four”.

Dreams Dreams .... As I understand it, infantile dreams are part of the preparation for the March events?

[BAI]

And then, you see, Romania and Bulgaria will catch up.

Faithful friends of Russia, always ready to stick a knife in her back.

[Reptiloid]

The Danube Four can become.....

Or maybe it won’t happen! How not to remember

It might rain, it might snow! maybe it will be ??? ....or not ??

About all these options

[Aleksandr21]

The Danube Four can become the personification of European sanity and sovereignty, a new springboard for European integration

It won’t, the most that these countries can do is cut “aid” to Ukraine due to pressure on their own budgets. It’s hard to explain to your citizens why money is spent on war and not on solving internal problems. Therefore, now support is happening quietly, without widespread media coverage (so as not to anger our own citizens).

But where a turning point can really come is because of the position of Germany and the Netherlands (the main sponsors in the EU), if they decide that there is no money (c) then they will begin to curtail support programs for Ukraine as a whole, and then the pressure on Ukraine will increase in terms of negotiations process...

The USA is going separately... and there is a special focus on the US presidential elections in 2024, Trump wins - attention shifts to China, priorities for spending resources change, in Ukraine it will be possible to give up) if Biden wins, then there is uncertainty because public pressure will intensify regarding spending from the budget and they may say goodbye to Ukraine... but there is a possibility that the current story will continue, because the positions of the military-industrial complex and arms corporations are strong, they can bet on a long-term conflict and launch the military industry for this purpose in the long term) then they will simply shift the focus from Ukraine to Taiwan, where all the products will be useful. So there's an unknown here.

[george.old]

the author “forgot” Poland and Hungary are in clear opposition to the supremacy of Germany (+ France), and the Czechs and Slovaks also quietly don’t want to bend over.

[Knell wardenheart]

We must understand that the above states are not the flagships of the EU. These are those who follow the leader or smoke on the sidelines - but not those who will row against the tide. Until the Russian Federation becomes at least approximately comparable with the EU (from a third to half of the total economy of the flagships Italy-France-Germany. At the moment, in terms of GDP we have approximately 1/6 of their total GDP), there will be no need to seriously consider the factor of orientation of positions towards ours . It will be like that joke with the mice - who cried and injected themselves, but still continued to eat cactus. Like Austria, therefore, they will support and observe the key, and in non-key things they will ostentatiously wave their claws, because “the affectionate calf of two queens sucks (c).” And the cunning European politician skillfully maneuvers. We are still happy with this situation - it allows our agitprop to chatter about the “imminent split of the EU”, in general, our typical chant for all times is “the death of capitalism”, “the decay of the West”, “the collapse of Ukraine” and “the split of the EU” to the heap.

I summarize - until we become at least twice as economically strong as we are now, all these dreams of a changing Europe will remain dreams. And we must not have any illusions here.

[stankow]

.At the moment, in terms of GDP, we have approximately 1/6 of their total GDP

At the moment, Russia is ahead of Germany in terms of GDP. $3.9 trillion at PPP. Of course, I have no illusions that you will agree or make inquiries yourself...

[Knell wardenheart]

What kind of manner of adding some kind of nonsense at the end - is this some kind of school trick to convince you to answer your comment? Isn't it a shame to try yourself as a child manipulator? :)

Please learn to read the letters that are written carefully - in my post I talked about GDP (or the so-called “nominal” GDP). You write about GDP based on PPP - these are different things, different statistics and the ratio of figures there is also different.
According to statistics in 2022 in terms of GDP (nominal), our ratio with the troika was $8.81 trillion (for the troika) to $2.13 trillion for the Russian Federation. Yes, this is somewhat more positive than the 1/6 mentioned offhand, but it’s still not fun. And this, as I already mentioned, is not a third.
Now, according to PPP, the World Bank and IMF statistics for Russia are significantly different, which is not the case for the EU states, and according to the IMF we are behind Germany by 15%, and according to the World Bank we are ahead of it by 0.01% or something like that. Which statistics should we believe, given that their data differs specifically for the Russian Federation? It's a matter of taste.
This applies to statistics for 2022.
We did not catch up with half of the total indicators of the EU troika that I mentioned (France-Germany-Italy) according to any statistics (12 billion dollars and 133 billion dollars (WB)) OR (5327 billion dollars and 12 billion dollars (IMF)).
Even in terms of PPP, we do not reach half, although if we use PPP statistics, we have already overcome a third.

You can continue to find the most optimistic figures and enjoy their alluring shine - my post was about the fact that there is a certain power economic relationship, after overcoming which, and only then, we will achieve a real tug-of-war of sympathies of the “unstable EU members” in our favor and to our side. I believe that this ratio is from a third to a half of the troika's GDP. I will note again - it is GDP, not GDP at PPP. From my point of view, the indicators of real production are important and not all this fuss with jumps in national exchange rates. currencies and their artificial undervaluation. Once you overcome the barrier of 1/3 confidently of the GDP of the troika, you will see for yourself how cheerfully all these Bulgaria-Czech Republic-Romania and others like them know how to change shoes; as you approach half of that, this process will be completely impossible to go unnoticed. Pure physics.

[Vincent price]

Noname with VO fantasized about the Danube Four, based on the visit of Austrian Chancellor Putin, and VO published this) when will we start publishing fan fiction?
Now on the topic.
All the above countries act in their own interests. Not in the interests of Russia, not in the general interests, but only in our own personal ones. So why should they overeat, for what?

[runway-1]

The Danube Four can become the personification of European sanity and sovereignty, a new springboard for European integration, just as BRICS became a springboard for global integration, and not just a counterweight to the GXNUMX.

The leadership of Hungary and Slovakia is not an ally of Russia (as well as Ukraine) and is only bargaining for maximum preferences from both the EU and the Russian Federation. BRICS is just a kind of club of interests, and no one yet knows whether it will become a springboard for global integration...

[Glagol1]

Dreams, dreams... Of course, the difference between Poland and Hungary is obvious, but everyone is hooked by the striped freak country. Everything is under her control. Nevertheless, ties must be maintained with Hungary, Slovakia, Austria and other moderate countries. For example, it’s better not to intersect with Poland at all.