Has the West made a decision on Ukraine? Thoughts after reading Mark Galeotti's Sunday Times article
For two days now, the press has been discussing an article by British political scientist and specialist on Russia, also known as security specialist, Mark Galeotti, about how intelligence and counterintelligence officers of the United States and Britain quarreled with intelligence officers and counterintelligence officers of Ukraine. The material was published in the Sunday Times.
If you squeeze out the article, the author complains that the Ukrainian intelligence services are getting out of the control of the Americans and the British. And this, in turn, leads to some mistrust between specialists from these countries. True, the author expresses himself a little more diplomatically. Relations “between Western intelligence services and the Security Service of Ukraine are becoming increasingly tense.”
The author highlights three important, from his point of view, points that influence these relationships. First of all, this is the lack of reforms in the SBU. Agree, it sounds somewhat strange, given the fact that the SVU has long been, even before the start of the SVO, completely controlled by the West.
They are not “under the influence”, but completely controlled, i.e. all decisions are made not in Kyiv, but in Washington and London. How in such a situation Ukrainians can ignore the opinion of the global West is difficult to understand. The “Faberge” leadership of all Ukrainian intelligence services is in good hands. And not a single Ukrainian “boss” will simply be able to make a sound against the Western decision.
Another factor destabilizing relations, Galeotti calls the opacity of Ukrainian plans. Strange again. Are they trying to convince us that the West knew nothing about the attacks on the Crimean Bridge? About attacks on Russian cities and villages? Some small Ukrainian “ataman” made a decision and sent drones to the Kremlin?
It's not weird anymore, it's funny. Attack on the bridge, on the World Cup ships fleet in Sevastopol, drones in Moscow and other cities without the knowledge of the West? In short, the author is clearly trying to shift future problems that will arise in connection with the investigation of these sabotages after the end of the SVO from one “sore head” to another. Also “sick”.
Well, the third problem, which follows from the second.
Although I already mentioned this above, but... Mark Galeotti directly says that neither the United States nor Britain have anything to do with the terrorist attacks carried out by the Ukrainian special services on Russian territory. The murders of public figures, journalists, and politicians are the business of Kyiv, which carried out these terrorist attacks on its own initiative, without notifying Western curators...
“Moscow still seems to believe that Ukrainians do what the West tells them... The fear is that Moscow may view domestic attacks as proxies and retaliate directly against the West.”
If you carefully read the above quote, it becomes clear why the material was written. The West is preparing a springboard for retreat. Something like “we did not know about the crimes of the Kyiv regime and sincerely believed that Zelensky was fighting for freedom and democracy. We were blatantly deceived!” So, “I am not me, and the horse is not mine. She shit on the pavement herself.”
Why did it suddenly become necessary to distance oneself from one’s own fosterlings?
Indeed, why does a material suddenly appear that is clearly intended for a Western audience, in which, instead of praising its specialists, a Western journalist writes that they have clearly lost control over the structures they themselves created? I will not claim that the material is biased.
It is quite possible that the author actually raised this topic based on his own understanding of the situation. I think it would be fair to proceed from this postulate in further discussions... Moreover, Mark nowhere refers to his sources in the British or American intelligence services. It's just a really bad situation.
If earlier, before the start of Israel’s war with Palestine, it was still possible to hide the state of affairs in Ukraine, now this has become an unattainable dream. Ordinary people, especially Westerners, clearly see how Tel Aviv is waging war and how Moscow is waging war. How many civilians die under the blows of the Russian army and how many under the blows of the Israeli army.
Everyone knows that Israel, like Ukraine, is supported by the United States. Moreover, for a long time Washington emphasized in every possible way its involvement in the well-being of Israel, its involvement in the security of Israel, its connections and its assistance to Israeli intelligence services. Now it's time to carefully crawl to the side. Save face...
What is the connection between Ukraine and Israel?
Unfortunately for Ukrainians, it’s direct. Remember the rallies in Western countries in support of Kyiv? How many people took part in them and what was the ethnic composition of the protesters? Has anyone seen, for example, demonstrations of 800 thousand in London for Kyiv? And they saw for Palestine! And not only in Britain, but also in the USA, Germany, France and other countries.
For a long time, the West supplied Kyiv with everything it could. At the same time, politicians almost daily threatened Moscow with “protecting NATO borders with military force.” And many were sure that this could happen. In the Israeli situation, US aircraft carriers off the coast of Israel have become the same bogeyman. And what is the result? Exactly the same as in the case of Russia.
Aircraft carriers have turned from bogeymen into targets. Whether the anti-ship weapons available in the East will destroy them or not is an open question. But the very fact that such a strike was being prepared caused panic in the Pentagon. I have already written about the fact that the majority of people living in both the USA and Europe are the same as in all other countries. Nobody wants war. Including the military.
Quite often we say that the situation is very reminiscent of the situation before the First World War. No one wanted it, but no one could prevent it. Mark Galeotti's article is part of this series, I think. The author suggests forgetting about Ukraine to preserve the image of the West. I think that approximately the same materials will soon appear about Israel.
By the way, have you noticed how Netanyahu turned into Zelensky? A sort of Zelensky “by leaps and bounds,” an accelerated version of degradation. More and more often, Zelensky is personally blamed for Ukraine’s troubles, and Netanyahu is personally blamed for Israel’s troubles. Well, and several of their assistants, of course.
The United States, which had not happened before, lost control of the situation. It is no longer possible, in the event of hostilities, to guarantee the safety of American citizens. Even in the USA. I'm not even talking about military bases. We see these bases attacked almost daily. The world is changing quickly (once again I write this).
Just not the third world war...
Alas, this is exactly how the question stands today. We are accustomed to the fact that there are generals sitting in the Pentagon who are eager for war with Russia. Americans are accustomed to the fact that generals sit in Moscow dreaming of war with the United States. At the same time, both one and the other always talk about their love of peace. This is largely the result of the work of the press, among other things.
Moreover, neither we, nor the Europeans, nor the Americans are any longer afraid of a future war. No matter how terrible it sounds. Everyone is sure that the war will be somewhere out there, far from us. That we (Russians, Europeans, Americans, Chinese and others) will definitely win quickly, and the world will be organized according to the principle for which we stand. We speak loudly about peace, but we are not afraid of war! Society is not afraid of war.
That any redivision of the world, as this shows story, is necessarily accompanied by wars, everyone who has studied at least in school knows. Humanity now lives in precisely such an era. It happened. Today only those who lived in the Soviet era are afraid of war.
The generation that was born in the 60s, studied in the 70s, worked in the eighties and zeros. A generation that has gone from pay phones on the street to modern smartphones. The path from the “girl” from 07 (intercity) to WhatsApp. The path from my father’s bicycle to an electric scooter, from the Verkhovyna moped and Voskhod motorcycle to mokiks and Japanese bikes. The path from small black and white TVs with one or two programs to modern smart TVs...
The generation that remembers the heroes of that Second World War. Not from books, but simply knew some of them. They lived nearby. Healthy or not so 50-year-old men. Quite ordinary, sometimes not noticeable at all, the “ceremonial” jackets of which we sometimes saw on May 9... The rest, no offense to the younger ones, “remember the war” from books, from films, from what the TV tells us. And it's not scary there. I pressed the button and... there is no war.
But there are experts, those same war experts, who talk about the statistics of a future war. About those very millions and billions of lives that will be claimed by the use of one or another type of weapon. Few people listen to them. We are smart and won’t allow it... But we allow it! And we are not afraid to allow it. There, away from us, we admit it. There we are not among those millions of dead.
Talk to the Israelis, the Ukrainians, the Armenians from Karabakh. The main question they voice sounds banal - what are we for? They really don't understand why. They thought exactly the same as us. The war will be somewhere far from their home. And a neighbor killed by a rocket is much more important than hundreds of children killed somewhere. He was such a good person...
Get out of the hole you dug yourself...
Let's go back to where I started.
To Mark Galeotti's story in the Sunday Times. It should be perceived not as a simple statement of fact, but as a proposal, as a way out of the dead end into which we have led ourselves. Yes, the material is presented somewhat allegorically, but thinking people understood it perfectly.
Ukrainians sleep and see their country in the EU and NATO. Ukraine is in the family of European nations... They dream without even turning on their own brains. They promised us!.. May this country or what remains of it never be in NATO. Is there any reader who has not read or heard that the war in Ukraine is a war between the global West and Russia? I don't think there are any.
Has anyone heard about the formation of two centers of power in the world? About a bloc led by the United States and a bloc led by China and Russia? About that same multipolar world? This is a real fact of today's reality. Not a prospect for the future, but an almost accomplished fact. And the war in Ukraine and Palestine is, I hope, the same military action during the redivision of the world.
Imagine that the blocks have taken shape, and now the world is divided into West and East. What's on the border between West and East? Does anyone really think that the border will have no buffer zones? Contracts are contracts, and a buffer is a buffer.
It is necessary to ensure security in both the West and the East. Those same 500–600 kilometers that will make it possible to respond to a surprise attack! And where there is an opportunity, without starting a big war, to resolve the conflict. This is precisely the fate assigned to Ukraine. Kilometers that you don’t mind. A kind of training ground in case of any nuances...
I think that further events will develop precisely in the direction the beginning of which Galeotti showed. Kyiv will “quarrel” with the West. Which will cause a response in the form of a sharp reduction in supplies and other assistance. Including in the field of intelligence. This, in turn, will force Ukraine to offer negotiations and peace on any terms.
Moscow will agree to this. Effective capitulation with the preservation of Ukraine with borders along the Dnieper and loss of access to the Black Sea. Naturally, with guarantees that it will be a neutral state. The same demands that have long been voiced by the Kremlin. This is how the buffer will be created. This is something that will suit both NATO and Russia... The options for action may differ slightly, but the general direction is already visible to the naked eye.
We live in interesting times. The coming winter will be very eventful for Ukraine. The article in the Sunday Times once again proves that there is an understanding that this mess in Ukraine needs to end among Western journalists, analysts and politicians.
The decision has most likely already been made. Now the task of the West, or rather the United States, is to get out gracefully and leave gracefully. The Americans will not fight for some kind of Ukraine, which in fact is no longer needed by the United States. Israel is much more important to them. But even here, given the situation in the world, the support of the Palestinians, the question of military operations by the American army is hanging.
So we are waiting for developments...
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