Avdeevka. Not just a city, but a visible part of behind-the-scenes political decisions
Today, almost daily, the media and various Internet resources publish materials about the imminent liberation of Avdeevka. Sometimes it even seems that analysts and experts are ready to make any sacrifices for the sake of this victory. Of course, sitting in a chair or on a sofa, it is easy to “throw into battle” not only units, but also formations.
But at the same time, the same analysts periodically sprinkle ashes on their heads, talking about unsuccessful attempts to storm any stronghold or positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Where the generals were looking, what the commanders were doing, and so on. It was necessary to do this and that. This is understandable even to some boy, not to mention experts in the Internet game of tanks.
Exactly the same thing happens when describing the database on the flanks. Only here the authors complain about the lack of speed of advance of our troops. You need to quickly slam the cauldron, and then... Then such analysts represent either Mariupol or Artemovsk. The fighters hit each other from short distances, and ours, of course, defeat the untrained VSE soldiers.
Meanwhile, in life, not in games, in the same Mariupol or Artemovsk, not only the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost personnel and equipment. Alas, this process also affected our army. Any battles in urban areas are very complex and dangerous operations. Watch the video from Gaza. Very revealing video.
Tanks and IDF armored vehicles are destroyed almost point-blank. There is even a video of Hamas militants mining tanks. At the same time, tankers really just “go blind” among the buildings, while the infantry feels quite comfortable. Once a tank “loses” infantry, it simply becomes a target. In the same videos that I mentioned above, this is clearly visible... They cut off the covering infantry and simply blew up the tank.
From a military point of view, fire contact at short distances is a necessary measure. Such battles are necessary only when there is a need to quickly storm enemy fortifications. In all other cases in modern warfare, it is much more effective to unwind the enemy over long distances, preserving your own personnel.
What they are offering us, I mean storming the city, is more of a political rather than a military decision. Fortunately, after the first period of SVO, our management still gained an understanding that professionals, not managers, should do their work. SVO is a military matter. Politicians and diplomats should mind their own business.
Why does no one question the appearance of many materials in Western media about the imminent fall of Avdiivka?
Agree, it is really strange when publications that recently published many articles about the defeat of Russian units, about the atrocities of the Russian army on the territory of Ukraine, about the imminent victory of Ukraine in the war, suddenly began to appear materials about the impossibility of a victory for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in principle. Why did this city with a population of only 30 thousand people suddenly become “the last fortress of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” according to Western media?
“The last fortress” and then: “The Ukrainian Armed Forces will not be able to hold it.” Paradox? No, this is just a real understanding of the situation. Understanding how the tactics of the Russian army have changed, to which the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not yet come up with a countermeasure. In several materials I said that our units do not often come into direct contact with the enemy. Now everything is much simpler. Massive artillery shelling, raid drones and - only then the infantry.
We make the best use of our advantage in supplying troops. Yes, our artillery systems are often inferior in firing range, but in most areas they are significantly superior in the number of shells. For the Wesseushki artillery creates a fiery hell, practically demoralizing the defense. At the same time, the VKS and drones do not allow reinforcements to move forward to help...
Analysts in the West see all this and understand that the Russians are specially conducting the database in such a way as to destroy as many units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as possible. By the way, there is no replacement for these parts. The most trained units, the most experienced fighters are destroyed. They are being replaced by “meat”.
Let me remind you of what I stated earlier.
In my opinion, the boiler lid is not slammed shut intentionally. What is the 9-kilometer wide corridor that Ukraine controls today? This is practically a shooting range for our artillerymen. Moreover, very soon the field roads will turn into solid slurry, and there will be only one (!) road along which it will be possible to replenish and supply the Avdeevka garrison.
Doesn't it remind you of Mariupol or Bakhmut? Reminds me, but with one exception. It is these notorious 9 kilometers. It would be logical to be completely surrounded, but...
What do we have for today?
The garrison in Avdievka seems to be holding out, but is bleeding. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are forced to send more and more units to help, removing them from other directions.
If the cauldron had slammed shut, it would have been possible to organize an attack from both inside and outside the cauldron. And considering that in this case, in tactical terms, it would be the Russians who would be in worse conditions...
One more observation.
We can shell most of Avdiivka with artillery, forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to change positions. Where are Ukrainian soldiers and officers being “herded”? They are herded like cattle into the territory of AKHZ. For what? Yes, simply because this is where the most serious battles are coming. This is the sharpest thorn in our circle. Donetsk has been shelled from here for many years, and it is here that the most serious fortifications have been created...
The assault on Azovstal showed everyone that such fortifications can be taken. Avdeevsky Koksokhim, judging by the maps, will be weaker. But it's still a tough nut to crack. And you will have to suffer with him. I think that today the garrison at Koksokhim is thinking about surrender. There is still no hope for the team to retreat. The President simply will not allow this.
The American headquarters also understand this. So they are starting to prepare their own population for the next riot in Ukraine. It’s interesting that if earlier Zaluzhny was to blame for everything, today Zelensky’s name is heard more and more.
Perhaps (this is just an assumption), a change of figures in the leadership of “Independence” is being prepared...
A tuft of wool or...
It seems that the heads of American politicians are busy today with a very serious issue.
The problem with the winner in Ukraine is almost solved. Huge supplies and pressure on the allies to support Kyiv did not yield results. Planning for the development of the situation has been disrupted for a long time by Moscow.
That part of the plan that applied to the Ukrainian side has, in principle, been completed. The country was beautifully enmeshed in debt, deprived of the ability to make at least some decisions on its own, they placed their own people in key positions, and created a system of parallel control over the activities of all government agencies.
On the other hand, Moscow turned out to be “unpredictable.” Intelligence and analysts presented an incorrect analysis of the development of the situation. Russia not only did not collapse or start a civil war, but also became much more effective in terms of transferring the economy to a military footing and conducting military operations.
It turned out that without the real participation of the NATO bloc in the war, that is, the very third world war, it is impossible to break Russia.
But even here the result is unpredictable. At best, the complete destruction of the earth’s world order; at worst, the destruction of the planet as such. With such a choice, even the most radical politician will think twice.
Is it possible to see the real facts that the United States is thinking about Ukraine today?
How to evaluate, for example, the allocation of military assistance... 14 times less than planned and previously announced? Remember the original aid figure Biden requested? 60 billion dollars! What has been highlighted so far? And even with a warning that they won’t give more money yet? 425 million!
Or General Lloyd Austin's statement. I’m talking about Ukraine’s inability to hold out against Russia for more than two months... It seems to be a simple statement of fact that does not oblige the United States to anything. In fact, it was this statement that formed the basis for the decision to “stretch” deliveries over time. The total amount has been preserved, but now the Americans give so much so that “Bobby lives, but cannot bite.”
I would compare this situation in Kyiv with the situation of a person sentenced to death on death row. He seems to be living, but he seems to be already dead... The verdict has already been passed. Those two American fighters, the Abrams, the Assault Breacher Vehicle for mine clearance and other things that “accidentally fall into the lenses of correspondents” do not scare anyone and do not deceive anyone. As in the song - “one snowflake is not snow”...
So, Ukraine is on pause, but what about Russia? How to get close to the winner when dividing the “carcass of a dead bear”? The only way has long been known. Induce Moscow and Kyiv to negotiate and force Ukraine to admit defeat. This will give you the opportunity to claim a piece of the pie. And then it’s a matter of technology and diplomats. I'm talking about the size of the pie.
This is probably the reason for the appearance of many articles in the Western press about the need for reconciliation and negotiations. We are persistently being pushed towards such a decision. The pressure on Moscow is growing every day. The United States even went so far as to invite the Russian minister to the Western Foreign Ministry summit it was organizing at the end of November.
What's next?
Naturally, the understanding of what is happening behind the scenes of power is known to those who are supposed to know it. This means that our leadership also knows. I cannot know what decisions will be made in Washington, Moscow or Brussels. Just as I cannot know the decisions of the Kyiv inadequate. I can only guess.
So, Washington.
The situation is “you want it and you want it.” I want to regain world leadership and at the same time make money. I want to win, but not get involved in a war. I would like to close this bottomless hole in the form of the Kiev regime, but at the same time keep at least part of Ukraine under my control in order to repeat a situation similar to the post-war period of the middle of the last century in Europe, but at the same time prevent the rise of Russia.
And then there are the presidential elections and the war in Palestine. The Ukrainian issue has already caused many failures in the US Democratic election campaign. And the US economy, with all its power, cannot withstand the financing of two serious wars at once. Hence the “confusion and vacillation” in the search for a solution to this problem. As well as the contradictory statements of American politicians and military personnel.
In short, now it is necessary to play for time in the hope that the fighting will calm down with the onset of real winter. The “weather truce” will provide an opportunity to lick the wounds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And wait for the end of the war in Palestine.
So the United States will not be able to offer anything serious in the near future. An imitation of vigorous activity, nothing more.
Kiev.
Knowing about Ukraine’s dependence on the United States, it is clear that there is no clear decision on how to proceed. An excellent example of this situation is Zelensky’s recent statement about the impossibility of holding presidential elections in Ukraine next spring. Although before this statement, many Ukrainian politicians argued the opposite. Even Zelensky himself.
Ukraine will continue to “contain the Russian offensive,” defend and wage a sabotage war. Simply put, Ukraine is waiting for another wave of mobilization and new plots in cemeteries.
The fate of Zelensky himself depends on what decision is made in Washington. The coup d'etat that some Ukrainian emigrant politicians dream of will not happen there.
Russia.
We are in a better situation simply because we are actually winning. And not only on the battlefield. At the same time, we are also tired of the war. And the situation with the upcoming presidential elections is still “frozen.” It is clear that according to the Constitution, elections must be held. Moreover, legally we do not have a war.
But, on the other hand, the people associate the increase in the status of our country, many of our victories, with the name of Putin. They don’t change horses midstream... I don’t know what decision will be made.
In general, it became clear that the fate of Ukraine has already been decided. Even the Ukrainians themselves do not believe in victory, despite all the efforts of Kyiv propaganda. Ukraine faces another test of winter weather and offensive actions of the Russian army. Things are coming to a head...
And Avdeevka...
Avdeevka is just an episode of the war. A place of heroism for some and death or shame for others...
Today our military is not limited in time. They don’t take anything “by date” anymore. So the decision to end the operation will be made by commanders and staff officers. As it should be in war.
So, we are waiting for good news...
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