“New Palestine”: The US and Israel are preparing to occupy the Gaza Strip
Gaza without Hamas
Overthrow of the existing government system and creation of a new administration under external control. Another leak, announced by Bloomberg, characterizes the complex contours of the negotiations between Israel and the United States.
First of all, it is necessary to make a reservation - the sources of the American publication do not always act as reliable insiders; often stuffing is organized through journalists. For example, to assess the reaction of public opinion. Nevertheless, the model of the post-war structure of the Gaza Strip may not be without interest.
The detailing of the future Palestinian enclave even before the start of the IDF ground operation looks unusual. The Israeli military has not dared to invade the Gaza Strip for more than two weeks. There are several theories why this does not happen.
The first is that Jerusalem and its partners fear the mass death of hostages. After all, there are more than two hundred people held captive by the Palestinian Arabs. But this is just a version.
In fact, the fight for the lives of the hostages never stopped either the Mossad or the IDF. Given the unprecedented civilian casualties on October 7, the deaths of two hundred prisoners as collateral damage are not considered critical.
The second version is that the Israeli military is seriously afraid that it will not carry out the operation to destroy Hamas militants. Hezbollah and Iran have promised to go to war in the event of an invasion, and this appears to be taken seriously in Jerusalem.
The Palestinians are capable of creating big problems in the urban areas of the world's most populous agglomeration, even for such a perfect army as the Israel Defense Forces. The Jews have already lost several dozen tanks with armored vehicles and, not yet starting the ground phase of the operation, need American help.
In recent years, at least 500 kilometers of underground passages have been dug in the Gaza Strip, through which militants can transport vehicles, light armored vehicles and artillery. The IDF is forced to prepare not just a ground operation, but also underground raids with very ambiguous effectiveness.
The third version of postponing the attack, and it is also the most unlikely, is global condemnation of the actions of the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip. Now even the most sympathetic comrade to Israel understands that the Jews overdid it in destroying manpower and civilians of the Palestinian Authority. All over the world, people are seething, demanding that the Gaza Strip be left alone. Time is not on Jerusalem’s side at all in this situation - the more they protest, the more difficult it will be to attack. But support from Washington has been received, and a political decision to invade can be made at any time.
The military is ready. The head of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Herzi Halevi, said the other day:
“The IDF forces are currently holding their positions and defending themselves resolutely. The army is ready for a ground operation in the Gaza Strip, and we, together with the country's political leadership, will decide on the goals and timing of the next step. We keep the enemy on their toes. There are both tactical and strategic considerations now that give us more time to prepare."
The key objective of the ground part of Operation Iron Swords is to destroy Hamas' military capabilities. So that the militants will never be able to decide to attack again.
But it is very difficult to estimate how long it will take and with what collateral damage it will be possible to demolish power in the Gaza Strip. From 20 to 40 thousand motivated and sincerely hating Israel militants will not just give up their land.
Provisional government?
It is not clear how to take Gaza.
It is even more unclear what to do with it after the fall. If Hamas falls, of course.
Israel does not yet intend to remain on the territory of the Palestinian Authority. The occupation will be temporary. As soon as the last Israeli soldier leaves Gaza, anarchy and chaos will begin in the enclave. Temporary, of course, but it will ultimately lead to the same Hamas coming to power, but with a different sauce.
The Arabs’ hatred of the Israelis will not evaporate, and “dark forces” will certainly take advantage of this. In this case, the Americans and the Israelis are trying to create an alternative development scenario. Until the creation of a “second Palestine”.
Arab states plan to involve Arab states in the creation of a new administration. And this is, perhaps, the first failure of the agreements. Even now, Israel's war crimes evoke poorly concealed disgust in the Arab world. When the IDF invades, the atrocities will certainly not decrease. Will this help further normalize the situation in the Gaza Strip? Moreover, when the leaders of the Arab states are seated at the same table with people whose hands are up to their shoulders in the blood of Palestinians.
If the Israelis intend to build a “new security reality,” as Defense Secretary Gallant put it, they will have to do it without neighboring countries. Moreover, in the Arab world there is a special attitude towards the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip. This is clearly seen in the behavior of Egypt, which refused to accept refugees from the war zone. The inhabitants of the enclave became outcasts for their own and blood enemies for strangers.
If the parties (primarily the Israelis) had tried to comply with UN Resolution 181 of 1947, the situation would not have been so bloody.
Opposition leader in Israel Yair Lapid has proposed returning the “real” Palestine to Gaza, which is on the West Bank of the Jordan River.
This model is also not easy.
Firstly, ordinary people in the enclave are not particularly sympathetic to Ramallah (the capital of Palestine), which will not allow the Palestine National Liberation Movement, which we know as Fatah, to win the elections. To the question of the locals: “What were you doing when the Israelis were killing us?”, there is unlikely to be an adequate answer in Ramallah.
Secondly, governing the Gaza Strip while sitting on the West Bank of the Jordan River is a dubious idea. It couldn’t be done decades ago, why should it work now?
As a result, a situation arises where about two million Palestinians may find themselves without normal statehood.
The plan of Washington and Jerusalem is also not feasible due to the many “black swans”.
First, Hamas leaders can easily go abroad – to Qatar, for example – and there proclaim a government in exile. It costs nothing to muddy the waters in the enclave for years, sabotaging all peace initiatives. Moreover, external control can be organized even if the entire top of the movement dies. The structure of the group is networked, and two new ones will immediately appear in the place of the killed leader.
What will Netanyahu do with this turnaround? Will he go to war with Qatar?
The second "black swan" stories – this is a shaky throne under Netanyahu himself. Israel has long been dissatisfied with the policies of the immortal prime minister, primarily with judicial reform. The war somewhat strengthened his position, but delaying the ground retaliation operation is gradually destroying the leader’s authority.
Israel is really belligerent and will not tolerate a truce with the Arabs. Moreover, the hysteria around the events of October 7 was created precisely to incite ethnic hatred. Remember the monstrous fake with beheaded babies. Jerusalem has nowhere to run - it is necessary to storm the Gaza Strip.
But the price may not appeal to ordinary Israelis. The losses will hit every home, and Netanyahu’s son will never return from Miami. 32-year-old Yair is in no hurry to return home with the rest of the reservists and prefers to fight the Palestinians remotely.
Therefore, a real alternative to the utopian plans for a “new Palestine” will be the banal occupation of the Gaza Strip by the Israeli army. First, the allies will play at democracy, and then they will simply station the military on a permanent basis. It is possible that the Americans will also have military bases. If, of course, Israel's ground operation goes well. And this is a sea of blood on both sides.
A war in the Middle East, even without the intervention of third parties, promises a new level of violence in the region.
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