Expert on negative scenarios for the impact of the Middle East conflict on the global and Russian economy
The main topic of recent weeks has been another escalation between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas.
To date, a number of world leaders have expressed concern about the risks of the conflict spreading to other countries in the Middle East, which will lead to a major war in the region and have a very negative impact on the global economy.
It is worth noting that, according to many experts, the reason for the involvement of other Middle Eastern states in the war will be the IDF ground operation promised by the Israeli authorities in Gaza, which has been constantly postponed.
Economist Oleg Komolov spoke about what awaits the world and Russian economy in the worst-case scenario for the development of the above-mentioned conflict.
The Middle East is the largest supplier of oil to world markets. Consequently, in the event of a war in the region and, as a result, a disruption or even termination of the supply of this raw material, the price of “black gold” will rise sharply.
Already, the cost of one barrel of Brent oil reached $93. Moreover, in the event of a war in the Middle East, according to experts from Bloomberg, quoted by Komolov, the cost of a barrel of “black gold” could jump to $150.
In this case, according to the analysis of the same American experts, global GDP will fall by $1 trillion, and global inflation will rise above 6%.
In turn, Russia, as Komolov put it, will obviously receive short-term benefits, since it is an exporting country. However, in the long term, due to a sharp decline in global consumption of this raw material, its price will fall sharply, which could send the ruble into another peak.
Information