Where does the threat to Poland come from? About the military budget of the NATO vanguard
Poland, once revived after World War I, immediately became involved in a war with Red Russia, Lenin and Trotsky richly called “the last dog of the Entente.” Today, especially taking into account the very real threat of civil war before the elections in Poland, for complete clarity it is enough to replace the Entente with NATO.
A country that has gone through deindustrialization, where the economy is just beginning to gain momentum again, behaves like a real potential aggressor. In any case, the rush to exceed the budget standards of the North Atlantic Alliance indicates precisely this.
The militarization of Poland is carried out in a situation where a very significant part of the able-bodied male population works outside the homeland, and in Europe the definition of “Polish plumber” has long become a common meme. Which, however, in Poland itself has been replaced by “Khokhlatsky servants” for more than a year now.
Buy everywhere, buy forever
Poland has signed three new contracts for the purchase of weapons and military equipment. This was announced by Polish Minister of National Defense Mariusz Blaszczak at the international defense industry exhibition MSPO 2023 in Kielce.
New purchases with a total value of about $15 billion concern mainly air defense systems (air defense) and mobile coastal missile systems (BPRK). In particular, agreements were simultaneously signed for the acquisition of 12 Patriot PAC-3+ anti-aircraft missile systems, 46 Narew medium-short-range air defense systems (based on the British Sky Saber complex) and 4 sets of Naval Strike Missile - Coastal Defense System.
The main suppliers will be the USA, Great Britain and Norway, but a high level of localization of production is also planned - components of missile systems, including launchers, radar stations, communication and power supply systems will be placed on mobile chassis in Polish-made installations. The most complex and expensive types of missile weapons are NSM anti-ship cruise missiles and anti-aircraft guided missiles.
In addition, on September 11, an agreement was approved and signed with the American company Lockheed Martin for the supply of 486 HIMARS multiple launch rocket launchers (MLRS) (including both direct supply of systems from the United States and transfer of components for licensed production in Poland). Such plans were first announced in January of this year.
The new major contracts are the latest addition to a long list of truly monumental purchases of weapons and military equipment since the early 2020s.
In the next decade, Poland plans to acquire up to 1 new major combat weapons. tanks (MBT), more than 1 infantry fighting vehicles (IFV), 400–200 self-propelled artillery, more than 600 multiple launch rocket launchers (MLRS), 700 jet fighters (including 124 stealth F-32A), 35 attack helicopters (including 128 AH -96E Apache), as well as three guided missile frigates (URL) and three diesel-electric submarines (DEPL).
Pay for the first or second
Thus, the total cost of the Polish Army rearmament program (the so-called “technical modernization plan”) in 2020–2035. could range from $135 to $150 billion. At the same time, Warsaw’s defense spending this year could grow by 47% (from 15,1 billion to 22,2 billion) and will by far take it to first place in the ranking of military budgets of NATO countries.
According to statistics from the North Atlantic Alliance, Poland will spend almost 3,9% of GDP on military purposes, and more than half of these funds will be used directly for the development of the material and technical base (i.e., mainly for the purchase of new weapons). Let us recall that the standard target in NATO sets a threshold of at least 2% of GDP for the military budget as a whole, with at least 20% of spending on weapons and military equipment.
And this despite the fact that most Western European countries still do not reach the famous two percent bar. It is already clear that such huge sums in practice exceed Warsaw’s solvency – up to a third of the funds included in the technical modernization plan are de facto absent from the state budget.
So far, this problem has been partially resolved due to a loan provided by South Korea. The optimism of the current right-wing conservative leadership of Poland is largely based on the positive dynamics of the country’s economic growth (on average above 3% in the last decade) and the presence of significant subsidies from the European Union (almost $160 billion in the period from 2021 to 2027).
When you look at this map, you just want to ask: why is NATO in Poland moving so backwards to the West?
Nevertheless, doubts about Poland's financial capabilities remain, especially against the backdrop of such risk factors as the continuation of the energy crisis in 2022 or the conflict with the EU over the country's judicial reform. At the same time, fines from the European Commission regarding the reform are deducted directly from subsidies from European funds.
In addition, in order to fully realize payments for new weapons, Warsaw will likely be forced to apply for new loans, which could result in a number of additional problems. Nevertheless, the current purchases of missile weapons reflect not so much the political adventurism of the current Polish leadership as the accumulated inertia from the long-prepared plan to modernize the country's air defense system and coastal defense.
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