Yom Kippur War - 2
This music will be eternal
The new aggravation between Israel and Arab Palestine is objective. Actually, this is a political dead end. The conflict has been going on since 1948. The Arabs hate the Jews, who they believe have taken over their land. During a series of Arab-Israeli wars and conflicts, the Israelis actually occupied almost all of Palestine, which they consider their Promised Land. Israelis hate Arabs. Questions of land, blood and religion.
The basis of Hamas' existence is the war with Israel. Plus the demographic factor. As Yasser Arafat liked to say: “Our atomic bomb is the womb of an Arab woman.” The Gaza Strip is essentially stuck in the past. The birth rate is high, at the level of traditional society, plus the achievements of modern medicine, which save almost all children born. Accordingly, there is a high percentage of young people who have no prospects. No education, no work. Poverty, crime. Israel almost never lets Arabs in and is not going to solve their problems. Everyone won't run away to Europe.
Practically the only prospect presented by Hamas is war. In words, everything is beautiful - for the homeland, against the “infidels”. In fact, the business is based on the blood of the main functionaries of Hamas and other similar organizations.
Theoretically, the problem of the Gaza Strip can be solved by large-scale socio-economic, cultural and educational programs. But this requires an appropriate development project and resource. Israel does not need this, the Israelis hate the “Arab savages” - the stage of traditional society, low level of education and culture, lack of productive culture, only appropriation. Their project: expansion to the borders of “Great Israel”, and a wall that fences off civilization from the savages. Of course, there are Israeli pacifists and liberals who offer de facto surrender. But this is not a solution to the problem, but only the emergence of a new one - Jewry will again be scattered.
The Arab-Muslim world is also not keen on the development of Palestine. There is no unity, there are conflicts. Plus, many are satisfied with the current situation: permanent conflict, Israel’s problems. You can throw in handouts to keep the situation at an acceptable level. The international community as such does not exist, plus everyone has their own problems. The collective West is happy with the situation of a frozen and permanent conflict. If necessary, the United States supports Israel, which is part of the so-called. “golden billion”, the core of developed countries. Plus the Jewish community in the USA, which promotes the interests of its relatives.
In some respects, Jerusalem is also happy with such a low-intensity conflict. It's familiar. The political and military elites are built around it. They have their own gesheft. If there is no constant threat, then there will be no point in their existence, a piece of bread with caviar.
Thus, the Gaza Strip, Israel, the Arab and Muslim world, and the international community are generally satisfied with the current situation. This political impasse could continue for decades to come. There is no image of the future.
The solution is either a large-scale development project that will suit everyone. But this is obviously a utopia. Or total cleansing and genocide, in the style of the good old days. Expulsion and extermination of the enemy. Taking into account the fact that the tendency for humanity to fall into the era of new dark ages, the new Middle Ages is quite obvious, then perhaps this will be so.
Fortunately, there are recent examples. In Chechnya, the Russians were completely expelled (at the same time exterminating some and robbing them), who were the majority in Grozny before the war, and almost all the cities were founded and equipped by Russians, Russian Cossacks. In Kosovo, the Albanians expelled the overwhelming majority of the Serbs, and the remnants, apparently, will soon be driven out. Azerbaijan literally just captured Nagorno-Karabakh, almost all Armenians fled to Armenia (more than 100 thousand people).
The current situation
An obvious failure of the Israeli intelligence services, the General Staff and the police. The first line of defense collapsed instantly. Either politicians turned a blind eye to incoming information about preparations for an invasion (as 50 years ago - Yom Kippur War. How the Arabs Almost Defeated Israel). What was needed was a “sacred sacrifice” in order to then respond as cruelly as possible. An analogue of September 11, 2001, in order to launch a large-scale operation to radically resolve the issue against the backdrop of public emotions and images of a bloody massacre.
A large-scale strike of rockets and primitive missiles that overloaded the air defense and missile defense system. Use of suicide bombers. Invasion by small groups of well-armed militants. Use of UAVs and paragliders. The capture of entire settlements with the extermination of military, police, officials and just civilians who were unlucky. Stealing people like cattle is in the best traditions of wild nomadic communities.
Israel was very lucky that the enemy did not have battalion and brigade strike groups that would develop the first success. It is clear that this is not the level of Hamas. This is the level of Iranian intelligence services; for Iranians, Israel is a sacred enemy.
Hundreds of dead and stolen people, mostly civilians, women, girls and children. Thousands of wounded. A classic of terror. Israeli Budennovsk, only on a larger scale. Obviously, the task was set to maximize civilian casualties. Fear and horror. Actually, Hamas is a terrorist organization, not a national liberation organization. Ramallah is celebrating because a huge stock of aggression and hatred has accumulated over the decades.
The organizers of the operation hit the psyche of the Israelis, provoking the most brutal response. For what? To gain the support of the Arab-Muslim world, the world liberal community, when Israel takes revenge.
The conflict is growing. Clashes began with Hezbollah, which is also backed by Iran. This is an enemy more serious than the Gaza Strip. Israel attacks Lebanon. The possibility arises of expanding the conflict into a new large-scale Arab-Israeli war. Yom Kippur Wars 2.
What's next?
If everything remains at the Hamas-Israel level with a small inclusion of Lebanese Hezbollah, then the conflict will quickly be resolved. Hamas does not have the resources to fight for a long time and successfully. Massive first strike and active information campaign, terror. All. Society's discontent has been channeled, new handouts will be allocated. They will be mastered.
Israel will naturally respond. Classically, he already answers. Missile strikes, air force raids, punitive operations. It is necessary to work in a densely populated area. It’s unclear where the terrorist is and where the civilian is. There will be many victims.
There is a 70% chance that this will happen. As usual. But given the global situation, there could be a full-scale war. Jerusalem will decide that it is time to close the problem forever, this is a total cleansing of Palestine.
Accordingly, not only Hezbollah, but also Iran and most of the Arab world will oppose Israel. It will be hell. New Yom Kippur War.
Who benefits?
Within the framework of the concept of the crisis of capitalism, human civilization and the Western world, it is obvious that escalation of the conflict beneficial to globalists, global bureaucracy, TNK-TNB. War, like a “pandemic,” is a means of “rebooting” the planet and humanity. War is a classic method for destruction and construction of a new world order.
The Ukrainian Front has been operating for two years, but this is not enough. The Arab-Israeli war and Iran's participation are much better. A new world is being built through a series of disasters, a pandemic, a war, then perhaps famine, climate crisis, energy crisis (What catastrophe will happen to humanity next??). Invasion of “aliens”, fortunately Hollywood has already created an information base.
Mass terror and massacre of civilians in Israel fits perfectly into this scheme. An acute state of panic and fear is created. This allows you to exchange your old life, freedom and rights for “security”. Plus creating a habit in people of constant fear. For this to be the norm, it will be easier to control the masses.
Beneficial for Iran. It is clear that such an operation is not at the level of the Hamas terrorist organization. A new hotbed of war after Iraq, Yemen and Syria, where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may be fishing in troubled waters. If successful, you can lead the Islamic world in the fight against the classic enemy - Israel. Develop your expansion project. Channeling the discontent of the Iranian people themselves, which has been seething for many years due to internal problems.
The signing of an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia is disrupted. The domestic political crisis in the United States is developing again, as in Europe. The threat of an energy crisis and a surge in oil prices, which is beneficial to Tehran. The US and NATO will not be able to organize an operation to defeat Iran now. The states themselves are on the verge of fragmentation, the elite and society are split and are already ready for civil war. Only the Celestial Empire will benefit.
Beneficial for Israel. A small, victorious war can mobilize society and channel internal problems into external threats. True, the hope for a “small victory” could lead Israel to a protracted, bloody conflict of attrition with most of the Arab world. And here the scenarios could be negative for Jerusalem.
And what about Russia? A large-scale and protracted war in the Middle East is a window of opportunity for us. Not for Minsk-3 or Istanbul-2, but for preparing a decisive offensive.
War socialism: mobilization, industrialization, nationalization of the fuel and energy complex, strategic industries and enterprises, financial sector, nationalization of the elite. Return to the Russian World of at least Left Bank Little Russia, the entire coast with Nikolaev, Odessa and Transnistria. Complete demilitarization and denazification of the Right Bank with a transition period and further return to the Russian world. Complete Russification of Little Russia-Rus. New Union. All carriers of Bandera ideology can/should return to the ancestral homeland of Ukrainianism - Western Europe, the USA and Canada. Within the country, restoration of the basic achievements of socialism - social justice and ethics of conscience, a society of knowledge, service and creation.
Unfortunately, I fear that the current Kremlin will traditionally fail this opportunity.
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