Isn’t it time to ask the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank why the ruble is again not in the know?
If you need a reason, then this is the reason
Measures taken mainly by the Bank of Russia to stabilize the situation with currencies slowed down the depreciation of the ruble, but only for a while. If in August exceeding the mark of 100 rubles per dollar was no more than a test, now everything may drag on for a long time.
And the point is not at all that regulators have too few dollars and euros to protect the ruble. More important is the strange interest of too many in ensuring that the ruble at least remains fairly weak. And above all, in order to make ends meet when creating a budget.
It was drawn up by the government with a completely tolerable deficit of 1,6 trillion rubles, which could be covered solely by the growth of oil and gas revenues. But by all indications, since there is no urgent need for this, no one will achieve this.
Moreover, the long-term practice of the Central Bank under its current leadership convinces decision-makers not to worry too much about the fact that a weak ruble works against investment. But to an even greater extent, he is against at least the relative well-being of the general public.
In the near future (not the most, but nevertheless), the delayed effect of rising prices is almost inevitable. And in a situation with an exchange rate of 100 rubles per dollar, the psychological effect is, of course, more important, and it seems that only this effect forces the Central Bank to take at least some measures.
However, the public somehow survived a hundred for a euro, and, one might say, they were already prepared for a hundred for a dollar. Against this background, it is surprising when, in search of the reasons for the fall of the ruble, experts even started talking about the fact that the share of the Russian currency in international payments has increased.
In response to this, the ruble should have simply taken off, but here, please, as one of the experts said: “the authorities were not ready for this and now cannot decide how to regulate the ruble in such conditions.”
Isn't there such a thing as too much extra money?
Not long ago, we all heard the president’s words about the need to “clearly understand the reasons” for the weakening of the ruble and “make appropriate decisions in a timely manner, without delay.” The Bank of Russia accepts it. But somehow it doesn’t help, because banking technology is poorly supported financially.
In response to justified criticism, the Central Bank regularly states that the fact that there are too many rubles in circulation plays against the ruble exchange rate. However, what kind of rubles are prohibitively expensive not at the exchange rate, but at the credit rate? And this seems to be supposed to help the national currency strengthen.
While complaining about today's exchange rates, one should not forget, however, that currencies approached them a month and a half ago. And all (or rather, almost all) the fall in the ruble exchange rate was directly related to the deterioration of the foreign trade balance.
But since the weak ruble in this situation played the role of a rescuer, and turned out to be beneficial for both exporters and the federal treasury, no one even tried to save it. Until the psychological mark of “100” appears on the horizon, let our theses be challenged as much as necessary in the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance.
Let them answer our direct questions better. Yes, the weakening of the ruble is primarily due to fundamental factors. The current account balance has not improved much, although the oil market has improved.
The Central Bank, without advertising it too much, carries out its changes precisely through the weakening of the exchange rate. Nevertheless, with a certain consensus on exchange control between the financial authorities and exporters and monetary authorities, the ruble could even be reversed.
However, instead of currency agreements, it was decided to simply close the gates to the export of gasoline and diesel. Well, prices at gas stations will definitely not increase after this - sales are needed, but no matter how long it takes until the refinery’s turnover decreases, it’s not far from a fuel crisis. After it, there will be nothing to export at all, and the ruble, right according to Andrei Kostin (remember, the head of VTB), will definitely jump to 150 at the exchange rate.
Pay taxes and... let go of the ruble
Today, experts vying with each other to remind that September hopes for a strengthening of the ruble were associated with the tax period and the resulting increase in demand for the national currency. However, by all indications, taxpayers managed to replenish the treasury without a significant drain on foreign exchange reserves.
This is what the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance were most likely counting on. But no matter how hard we try, we can’t say anything good about our regulators and financiers on this matter. They openly became interested in theoretical debates about how to combat inflation and rising exchange rates in the face of declining earnings of that very currency.
At the same time, any control over what was happening with the ruble money supply, judging by what happened at the turn of September and October, that is, the third and fourth quarters, was clearly lost. And the most dangerous thing is that the process of rolling back the ruble has not even stopped.
Or does it just seem so, and everything is under control of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, as before?
However, when two monetary departments cannot even agree on how much foreign exchange earnings to buy from exporters, it becomes simply alarming for their currency.
Even taking into account the fact that the Russian ruble, along with the euro and dollars, is currently doing well abroad. And as an illustration, not only what was written above, but also the Indian example is quite sufficient.
Speak louder, you can't be heard
It is difficult to judge yet how much ruble exports prevent the ruble from strengthening within Russia, but it is difficult to argue with the facts. The flight of capital is already taking on some kind of pathological character.
Without direct intervention from regulators, maintaining the ruble exchange rate even at current levels will not be easy. The situation is aggravated by quite frank hints from exporters and bankers that they are not afraid of any devaluation. More precisely, it’s simply profitable, even very profitable.
Many people also say that a weak ruble is beneficial for the treasury, although not so loudly. Clearly outdated arguments against strengthening the currency in a country that is clearly focused on exporting everything that is possible, and often everything that is not, are also surfacing.
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