At the beginning of 2013, the topic of Ukraine’s possible entry into the EurAsEC Customs Union, which today includes Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan, has become quite active. In the first days of the coming year, the policies of Russia and Ukraine outlined the intentions of expanding the Customs Union precisely because of the quite possible entry of Ukraine into it. Sergey Lavrov, head of the Russian foreign affairs agency, arrived in Kiev to meet with the Ukrainian leadership. The purpose of the visit is obvious: Lavrov arrived in order to coordinate the visit of Viktor Yanukovych to Moscow, during which (visit) certain agreements on the integration of Ukraine into the CU can be reached in the near future.
Let's not forget that the visit of the Ukrainian president to Moscow was to take place as early as December 2012, but then Yanukovych never arrived at the meeting with Vladimir Putin. Journalists asked the Russian president about the reasons for the “no-show” of Yanukovich to the capital of Russia during the December 20 2012 press conference of the year, but the exact answer was not received. But some time later, news came from Kiev that Viktor Yanukovych did not fly to Moscow, because experts from both sides did not have time to prepare a full package of documents that would talk about the possibilities of adapting Ukrainian legislation to the norms of the Customs Union. This, in particular, said the president of Ukraine. Yanukovych, in fact, made it clear that if he had arrived in Moscow a few weeks ago, he would have nothing to discuss with Vladimir Putin, because the documentary basis for a substantive conversation about Ukraine’s entry into the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan absent. Whose fault was she missing, so to say, and was anything done to prepare this base? - this is another question.
Apparently, after this, the very experts about whom the Ukrainian president spoke, at least from Russia, decided to intensify their work and do their part to ensure that the meeting of the two (and possibly four) presidents took place in the near future.
At the same time, they came from Ukraine news that soon Leonid Kozhara plans to go to Moscow, who not so long ago was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs. Kozhara represents the “Party of Regions”, which means that, in principle, it shares the position of the Ukrainian president. But what is this position today? With her things are not very clear.
The fact is that the conversation about Ukraine’s joining the CU is far from a day or two. And if the Ukrainian president says that the relevant legal framework is not prepared, then what prevented her from preparing all this time, because interest, as Yanukovych himself says about Ukraine’s entry into the Customs Union and further into EurAsEC, is present ... And the desire of the current Ukrainian leader to prevent , let's say, on two fronts. The President of Ukraine constantly says that his country has headed for European integration and does not intend to go from this path. At the same time, Viktor Fedorovich does not intend to buy energy from Russia at European prices, as do all those who have finally chosen the European vector of development. But in order to receive, for example, gas at prices advantageous to official Kiev, it is necessary to at least to some extent mark its rapprochement with Moscow. It is to some extent that so far the Ukrainian president is successfully demonstrating. His words that "they did not have time to prepare a documentary base" fit into this outline. Did you want to cook it? ..
But after all, infinitely "to some extent" cannot continue. In the end, Yanukovych will have to choose a single chair for a rather comfortable seat on it, because none of the political leaders have been able to sit on two chairs without consequences. If we assume that the Ukrainian authorities declare that Ukraine is choosing the path of European integration (and in the coming year Kiev and Brussels planned to sign the so-called Association Act of Ukraine and the EU), then the representatives of the Customs Union are unlikely to applaud. Someone can say, but perhaps Moscow, Minsk or Astana have the right to condemn the actions of Kiev, which are associated with his own vision of the future for Ukraine? Yes, indeed, they have no rights, but only after that and all the talk that the Ukrainian authorities want to reach agreements on the supply of energy resources at preferential prices look completely meaningless. Preferential prices on the basis of what? Based on the fact that Viktor Yanukovych promised to think about joining the Customs Union, like Scarlett O'Hara, tomorrow? ..
On the other hand, if, nevertheless, the very experts do everything for Viktor Yanukovych to make sure that Ukraine finally joins the Customs Union, what then? Then again it turns out to be a game with two chairs, one of which, whether the Ukrainian president wants or not, will have to be disposed of. After all, if we assume that his personal signature appears on the document of accession, and Ukraine will become the fourth member of the Customs Union, then the Europeans, in turn, will say: “Viktor, who are you with?” After all, expect that in the European Union someone will say that Ukraine’s entry into the Customs Union does not contradict the interests of the European Union, at least naively. One may say that the European Union is based on democratic principles, when only the people decide everything, but we understand that in fact this maxim is far from the truth. A good half of the EU member states are listed in this very EU for the sole purpose: to wave a small fist to the side of Russia because of the new Curtain, invoking at least verbal help from NATO if necessary.
And here, you understand, Viktor Fedorovich with his multi-vector nature can destroy the true basic principles of the existence of the European Union. It is, of course, Brussels could take advantage of Ukraine’s entry into the Customs Union, so that through the formed “corridor” to get oil and gas cheaper, but then you have to step over the precepts of Big Brother, and finally admit that the Russian proposals for economic Eurasian integration are tempting than endless refinancing against each other when using currencies that are more dead than alive ...
In general, Viktor Yanukovych, in fact, does not have much time to make a final decision. Yes - it will be difficult anyway. But from that it will be no less valuable for the whole of Ukraine.
When will Viktor Yanukovych stop playing Scarlett O'Hara?
- Alexei Volodin