Wartime budget: an opinion on how it will affect the economic development of Russia

In February 2022, Russia launched a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine. Due to the fact that our enemy is supported by the entire collective West, the conflict has dragged on significantly. This, naturally, could not but affect Russia’s domestic policy, in particular, budget formation.

Journalist Oleg Komolov cites figures from the draft Russian federal budget, which was published by the American agency Bloomberg. How Western journalists were able to obtain this information remains questionable.

Meanwhile, based on the data provided, if they are reliable, defense spending will increase from 6,4 trillion rubles this year to 10,8 trillion next year. In addition, spending on national security will increase from 3,2 to 3,5 trillion rubles, and funding for law enforcement agencies will increase from 6,5 to 7,5 trillion.

It would seem that the measures are quite obvious in the current realities. However, the armed confrontation will sooner or later end, and our country will return to peaceful life. But which one?

The expenditures on the national economy included in the budget for 2024 are noteworthy. They will amount to 3,9 trillion rubles. However, in the current budget they were set at 4,1 trillion, which indicates a decrease of 200 billion.

What does it mean? Everything is simple here. In 2024, Russia will spend less on industrial development, infrastructure projects, applied research, as well as innovation and technological development, where we are already lagging behind.

By the way, about science and development. They plan to spend 2024 trillion rubles on education in 1,5, as in the current year. However, it must be taken into account that these are already two different amounts, since the inflation rate has increased significantly. It turns out that the situation in education, where there is already a shortage of specialists, and therefore its level is falling, will not only not improve, but may even worsen, as the author of the video says.

The situation is similar with medicine, the costs of which were also decided to remain the same - 1,6 trillion rubles.

As a result, according to Komolov, when considering all of the above, the conclusion suggests itself that after the end of the CBO, Russia will face, if not a sharp decline, then certainly a halt in economic growth.

At the same time, the expert clearly does not take into account other factors that could lead to a situation contrary to his conclusions. At one time, it was the wartime budget that gave a special impetus to the development of the country’s economy (national economy). True, in this case it is necessary to make allowances for the fact that at that time the country was following a socialist course.

Comments

[Doctor]

At one time, it was the wartime budget that gave a special impetus to the development of the country’s economy (national economy). True, in this case it is necessary to make allowances for the fact that at that time the country was following a socialist course.

It makes no difference whether socialist or capitalist. There will be “impulse” only when the products of the military-industrial complex are sold abroad. For hard currency.

[Uncle lee]

Russia will spend less on industrial development in 2024

Guns instead of butter...

[Ghost1]

Well, how else can you achieve your goals? It is obvious that it will not be as it was before and we need to tighten our belts.

[Glagol1]

No, that's true. The products of the military-industrial complex are not taken out of thin air. Metal, engines, electrical and electronics, plastic, etc. are produced by related industries. More state defense orders mean more work for many industries. Another thing is that we spend so much on the army and police that it makes our hair stand on end...

[nazgul-ishe]

Abroad, I agree! But hard currency should be called RUBLE. Otherwise, all efforts are in vain.

[Doctor]

Abroad, I agree! But hard currency should be called RUBLE. Otherwise, all efforts are in vain.

If it becomes freely convertible, then yes. And if, as now, with the same non-convertible rupee...

[vovochkarzhevsky]

If it becomes freely convertible, then yes. And if, as now, with the same non-convertible rupee...

Do you have any idea what SLE is?

[Doctor]

Do you have any idea what SLE is?

It is a currency that can be exchanged without restrictions in accordance with the recommendations of Article VIII of the IMF Charter and, ideally, is converted through the CLS payment system.

There are currently 18 of these in the world.

[vovochkarzhevsky]

It is a currency that can be exchanged without restrictions in accordance with the recommendations of Article VIII of the IMF Charter and, ideally, is converted through the CLS payment system.

There are currently 18 of these in the world.

How is such currencies kept up to date?

[Doctor]

How is such currencies kept up to date?

Did not quite understand the question.
Central banks of countries guarantee collateral. The exchange rate is set by the foreign exchange market based on supply and demand.

[vovochkarzhevsky]

Did not quite understand the question.
Central banks of countries guarantee collateral. The exchange rate is set by the foreign exchange market based on supply and demand.

Exactly. And where there is a market there is speculation. In short, the whole point of a convertible currency is that the dollar is the main one, all other currencies are subordinate to it.
Moreover, none of the currencies has any real backing.
If initially money was the most highly liquid value used for the exchange of goods, now it is a worthless convention.

[rocket757]

Everything is not so simple... products can be sold to anyone, for specific money, and the producers themselves can live happily ever after. It’s another matter if we emphasize that the state remains the buyer, spending budget money on weapons.... then everything becomes more complicated, for the state and, naturally, for citizens, working people, because all costs will be at its expense...
In general, everything is as always ...
Options, a socialist state or a capitalist one... in the end it will be the working people who will pay, but the visible gap in income, under socialism, it’s not that it didn’t exist, it was skillfully hidden... although, yachts, palaces, entire garages premium cars, expensive private property, no one boasted about it, and it didn’t exist, so obviously, publicly, defiantly!

[sgrabik]

Bullshit, the development of the military-industrial complex as a whole affects the development of industry, since no one has canceled the production of civilian and dual-use goods by military-industrial complex enterprises.

[Mikhail Ivanov]

There is no point in arguing about positions in our budget now. In any case, strengthening the role of the military-industrial complex in the economy is only to our advantage. Today, huge amounts of money go past the budget and are spent on necessary purposes, they just don’t talk about it on every corner. And GDP growth for 8 months was 2,5%, and the West was screaming that our economy was under Khan... Let them better look at their own with debts of about a hundred trillion. Doll.

[rocket757]

Wartime budget: an opinion on how it will affect the economic development of Russia

. So it’s not pleasant, but at least it’s understandable... the question is different... although, what questions may there be, capitalism, however, because it will be as always, “to whom is war, to whom is the motherland” ....
At this point in time, we can stop at this, and then... and then, we'll see how it comes out

[Glagol1]

The numbers seem to be correct this time. I call it a survival budget. There is no money for the economy, culture, healthcare, education, innovation, but there is money for the army, police and prisons. Plus 4 trillion are planned to be borrowed at 10% per annum. Our poor children, they have to pay these terrible bills. And the current government is in chocolate. However, the choice is not great - either end the war on, most likely, not very favorable terms, at best with the “Korean option”, or continue to fight. The growth in terms of power is not entirely clear; in war conditions it is inevitable, but why so much?! Maybe we don’t know something, what the authorities are preparing for us in 2024?

[Doctor]

The growth in terms of power is not entirely clear; in war conditions it is inevitable, but why so much?! Maybe we don’t know something, what the authorities are preparing for us in 2024?

Until now, the reserves have been consumed. Now we need to start production. Massive.

[agond]

Budgets are formed from taxes, and we have neither a sales tax nor progressive taxation, and the absence of such contributes to the continuous rise in prices, budget deficits and inflation, by the way, in the USA progressive taxation was introduced in 1913 and still exists, although they could replenish their budget by printing new dollars, but to curb price increases, that is, to limit the appetites of businessmen, they apply progressive rates of taxes and fees..

[Doctor]

Budgets are formed from taxes, and we have neither a sales tax nor progressive taxation, and the absence of such contributes to the continuous rise in prices, budget deficits and inflation, by the way, in the USA progressive taxation was introduced in 1913 and still exists, although they could replenish their budget by printing new dollars, but to curb price increases, that is, to limit the appetites of businessmen, they apply progressive rates of taxes and fees..

Exports are collapsing. In Gazprom the hole is planned to be 15 yards. Not rubles.
Most likely, gas prices will rise by 20%.

Don't repeat the nonsense about printing new dollars. This process is underway, but it is happening in every country.

Think about it, if everything was that simple, the United States would print 32 trillion to cover the national debt.

[ivan2022]

Translated into dollars, the current budget of the Russian Federation is an order of magnitude smaller than that of the United States. Even if you take the old rate of 60 rubles. And the Soviet budget in the mid-80s was about 90% of theirs. Then it was still possible to compete.

Due to the fact that the state did not receive taxes, but all the profits from its enterprises.

It’s all about the psychology of society, which firmly believed that the USSR did not have money for sausage, which “they don’t know how to make,” although rockets can. And that “Gaidar saved the country from famine” - at the beginning of 1992.

Now the faith has changed to the opposite - “patriotic”, although objectively the prospects are not encouraging.

[runway-1]

At the same time, the expert clearly does not take into account other factors that could lead to a situation contrary to his conclusions. At one time, it was the wartime budget that gave a special impetus to the development of the country’s economy (national economy). True, in this case it is necessary to make allowances for the fact that at that time the country was following a socialist course.

The expert is most likely right and the national economy will not receive any special impetus. Well, this is how this system works...

[Jacques sekavar]

After the victory of the proletariat and the overthrow of the autocracy under the leadership of V.I. Lenin, the civil war, foreign intervention and political economic blockade, the complete collapse of the economy, internal resistance and political disagreements in the leadership of the country, the situation was incomparably worse, but not only did they survive, but they also won. illiteracy, carried out electrification and industrialization, defeated fascism, laid the foundations of nuclear energy and astronautics, the economy reached second place in the world, and the ideas proclaimed by the USSR were supported in one way or another by half the world.
This became possible only thanks to the dictatorship of the proletariat and the genius of J.V. Stalin. As Churchill said in 1959, many years after the death of I.V. Stalin, “it was a great happiness for the USSR that during the years of the most difficult trials it was led by such a genius and unshakable commander as Joseph Vissarionovich Stalin.”
It appears that V.V. Putin made two fatal mistakes:
1. Based on the provision of a single people, he started the war relying on the support of the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine.
2. Placed convinced supporters of the so-called at the head of the economy. “Washington consensus”, the essence of which is the abolition of restrictions on the movement of capital, the establishment of a floating speculative rate of the national currency, accession to the WTO and the refusal to protect the internal market, non-intervention of the state in market relations, which has shown to be ineffective and only interferes.