The agony of Kyiv or an attempt to rectify the situation? What is behind the “purge of military commissars” and the new initiatives of the Rada
Have you noticed how many reports in the press that Ukraine is fighting on its last legs? How many journalists and bloggers write about how Ukrainian cemeteries have increased, what huge losses the Ukrainian Armed Forces are suffering, how Zelensky’s clique is trying to return men to the country’s territory.
You read such articles, and a serious dissonance arises in your head. If everything is so good, then why are the guys from the front line writing about increased fighting? where do sufficiently well-trained and armed reserves come from? It seems that they are trying to convince us that it is not at all necessary to attack. It is enough just to stand, beat the attackers, and Ukraine will simply kill itself.
They are trying to convince us that the material, and most importantly, the human resources of crests are running out. We’ll stand a little longer, a little bit disperse the Ukrainian peasants, who were caught by zealous military commissars, and that’s it. Victory itself will come to our home. At the same time, let it be meters a day, even meters a week, but there are areas where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are creeping forward.
I understand the desire of our journalists to please some of the population of Russia and Ukraine that the war will go out on its own. Like a fire where they stop putting wood on it. A sort of remake of the work of the Bolsheviks in 1917 on the collapse of the front. “Enough, let’s fight! Let's go home!" And that's it! The war is over.
I believe that such materials do more harm than good. It's not hard to start a war. It's hard to finish it. We somehow forgot that on May 9, 1945, the Great Patriotic War ended legally, but not in fact. How many years after the end of the Great Patriotic War did we clear the forests of all scum, how many years did we catch spies and saboteurs?
No, Ukraine is not some kind of “Baltic microbe” with a couple of million people. This is a huge country by European standards, capable of putting hundreds of thousands of fighters under arms, even today. The problem in Kyiv is not the number of fighters, but the quality! Alas, in many respects the loss of crests was due, among other things, to the insufficient training of soldiers and officers.
Yes, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are huge, but not critical. No one today would dare to predict when Ukraine’s resources will run out. Moreover, to prophesy when the war will end. Indeed, today the Ukrainian Armed Forces are forced to compensate for our superiority in weapons, troop training, and motivation of fighters - with large losses.
We have written a lot about some Ukrainian know-how, which is based precisely on a disregard for the lives of its own fighters. The soldiers are thrown to their death, but at the cost of their lives they stop our advance. This is not mass heroism, this is a purely mathematical calculation. The enemy will spend ammunition to destroy the fighters and will be forced to delay the offensive to replenish their arsenals...
Terrible trend for Kyiv
Why is Kyiv today so concerned about the problem of men escaping from the war?
I agree that this is somewhat contrary to what is written above. But, in my opinion, the majority of those who hope for the depletion of Ukraine’s resources initially based their reasoning on the wrong postulate. Kyiv is demanding the deportation of its citizens not because there are not enough mobilization resources. The point is different.
On the one hand, Ukraine declares on all possible platforms that it is a democratic country. And this obliges us to at least outwardly maintain the appearance of democracy, the illusion of Ukraine being similar to Western countries. The biggest problem for Zelensky is the elections. While the rating is quite high. The image of the president as the defender of the country from aggression is quite deeply driven into the heads of Ukrainians.
But, on the other hand, it is becoming increasingly difficult to hide huge losses. Cemeteries are growing like mushrooms after rain. And the number of “missing people”, and even with fairly strict censorship, Ukrainians still receive information about the attitude towards the corpses of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers, too.
For some time, perhaps even before the elections, the situation will be favorable for the incumbent president, but ... Washington and Brussels are increasingly talking about the fact that Kyiv should be preparing a new "spring offensive." That is, Zelensky is directly told that the war must continue. And this means that the number of dead and wounded will continue to increase. Which is unlikely to have a positive impact on the rating.
And this is where the problem of a possible lack of resources comes up. A problem that will arise if the West continues to supply measured quantities of weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Simply put, if the same situation continues as today. The shortage of manpower may well provoke discontent in society and the army. What Zelensky cannot allow.
According to the estimates of some of our and Western experts, today the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other law enforcement agencies is approximately 1 million people. It seems to me that this figure, plus or minus one hundred thousand, is the most optimal for Ukraine. Because it allows you to control the situation both at the front and in the rear.
Thus, the most terrible trend for Kyiv is the prolongation of the conflict. This is a direct threat to the existing regime and Zelensky personally. The main task now is to convince the Western masters that Ukraine is full of strength, and the authorities in Kyiv control all processes in society. And ideally, Kyiv really needs a victory.
Let it be small, teenage. Even without accepting Ukrainian conditions. Let it be according to the Korean scenario. But victory. The ideal option would be victory on the battlefield. This means that in the days remaining until the autumn thaw we will see the activation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The owners teach Kyiv long-term planning
What is happening today in Ukraine in terms of intensifying conscription in the Armed Forces of Ukraine clearly shows that the situation is understood not only in the president’s office, but also overseas. I think that the latest visit of the American representative is precisely part of the audit of the authorities, an element of the operation to save Zelensky.
Look at what is happening from the point of view of long-term planning. I will not talk about what was done a long time ago. Only what happened literally yesterday or the day before yesterday.
Let's start with the campaign to “clean up the military registration and enlistment offices.”
What menacing statements there were, how the Ukrainian press enthusiastically talked about bribe-takers caught red-handed. So what's the result? Zilch! Send military commissars to war, and in their place put disabled people who have already been there. For what? To eradicate corruption? Complete nonsense! The same military commissars “feed” their bosses. Such a feeder will not be closed.
The task is completely different. Ukrainians are confident that any mobilization can be bought off! This is the postulate that Kyiv needs to change. It is necessary to restore confidence in the troop recruitment system itself. The people must want to die for the country! What about bribes? They were and will be. Those who came to replace the old "military commissars" will be the same people who will work in the system. Or they won’t if they don’t feed their superiors...
Further. The adopted law stipulates that sick and fit people are subject to conscription. The law has been passed, but the call for tuberculosis patients has begun? No. More precisely: they were called up before this law. How many of the captured Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers suffer from various diseases? “Well, yes, they were called by mistake,” it happens. The military commissar was put on notice.
But at a certain moment, when it becomes necessary, it will be a “mistake” to call up the disabled, terminally ill, etc. The rest will be “scavenged out” according to the law. And people will perceive this quite normally. Whatever one may say, Ukrainians are law-abiding people. Unless, of course, they see the fist of power in front of their nose. And they see this fist every day. That's why they sit quietly in their holes.
And one moment.
“Limitedly fit for wartime” is not “unfit for military service.” Ukrainians forgot about it. In principle, quite predictable. War has not been declared. The government reminds us of this. And there is no need to declare war at all. Enough to convince people of this. Which has already been done successfully.
Further. Remember Arakhamia’s initiative to call up those who fled the country using fake certificates? How much noise the “abroad Ukrainians” made about this. They raised it without even thinking about the fact that 90% of those who left had no certificates at all! There are approximately the same number of other “deserters” – those who receive a second higher education.
In reality, only those who study at Ukrainian universities can be recruited. It is quite difficult to get refugees out legally. The European justice system is so bureaucratized that any such case will become almost a feat of the military commissars. But it is now. If necessary, Europe will quickly forget about democratic procedures...
The final decision has not yet been made
Just a little about whether there are specific decisions on Ukraine at NATO and American headquarters. Alas, it seems to me that there is no such solution. There is some progress, but the final decision has been postponed until the situation in the United States stabilizes. Before and after the election.
The reasons for this situation are objective and do not depend on political and other decisions. Ukraine today is a rather deserted area with a small population. According to Ukrainian and Western experts, the population is approximately 20 million people, half of whom are pensioners.
Simple logic leads to a terrible conclusion for Kyiv. Even total mobilization will not give Kyiv more than five million fighters. This is the limit after which Ukrainians will cease to exist as a people.
But you can call, but what next? From this crowd of men it is necessary to form military units. And for this you need to arm them, provide them with everything necessary, from socks to equipment, appoint, and most importantly, train sergeants and officers. Alas, today Kyiv will not be able to do this on its own.
Okay, “partners” will be able to provide uniforms and other things. Arm - NATO. What about the commanders? Accelerated courses in alliance countries? So the Ukrainians themselves say that the military personnel of the Western armies, who are now training Ukrainian units, understand practically nothing about a modern war with a serious enemy, and everything that is taught at NATO bases is completely useless for real combat.
I believe that in the near future the West will follow Kyiv’s lead and supply both aircraft and Abrams to Ukraine. I am driven to this thought... by Washington's decisions. Supply of depleted uranium ammunition, for example.
Few noticed the small phrase in the documents about these deliveries: “shells for tanks “Abrams”... Why tank shells (let me remind you, deliveries in September) if there are no tanks? This means that the Abrams are already somewhere near the borders of Ukraine or even in the country itself.
Is the same story will be with airplanes. It is clear that the Ukrainian pilots have not yet been trained. It is quite possible that somewhere at US air bases such pilots are maturing and completing their training. But there is also a fairly powerful diaspora of Ukrainians in Canada, the USA, and Europe. I'm sure there are F-15 pilots among them. Why don’t they “remember their homeland” and blaze with patriotic feelings for good money?
The result?
Alas, we need to put the squeeze on the enemy.
It is not necessary to expect that the thoughts that the war must be ended in any way will appear in the heads of Kyiv politicians and ordinary Ukrainians.
Diplomacy? It will be possible to talk about it only when Washington gives the command to stop supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Until this moment, even starting to think about something is stupid.
For the hundredth time I am writing the phrase that victory is forged at the front. Everything else is help to soldiers and officers. Help! Victory is in the hands of those men who today, now, at this moment, are beating the enemy. All that is written about above is the agony of the West, which created and feeds the Kiev regime. A frantic search for a beautiful way out of the situation created by him, the West.
For some reason, I remembered a cat driven into a corner. Before death, it will be really scary to fight. She has no choice. Death or... destruction.
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