Historical precedent for the depreciation of the ruble

The recent decline in our national currency, when 1 US dollar was worth more than 100 rubles, caused serious concern among most ordinary Russians. Strictly speaking, this is not surprising, because the depreciation of money directly affects the rise in prices and, as a result, the well-being of the population.

It should be noted that the Central Bank of Russia is already taking measures to curb this negative process. In particular, the regulator raised the discount rate to 12%, thereby making the ruble more expensive. However, the effect of this measure appears to have been short-lived. After rising to 92 rubles per dollar, today our currency has again dropped to almost 96.

In this situation, many are interested in the question, to what extent is the ruble capable of “falling” at all? Is there that very line where he will stop by himself?

Here we can cite as an example the situation that developed in 1923, when one American dollar cost almost 300 thousand rubles. At the same time, back in 1916, the ratio was almost 1 to 4.

Of course, in modern Russia, the above situation is extremely unlikely. After all, the collapse of the ruble at the beginning of the last century was due to a number of negative factors, including the First World War, the Revolution, the Civil War and a number of unpopular and completely contrary to economic laws measures.

For example, N.N. Krestinsky was a supporter of the theory that the depreciation of money would lead to their complete "zeroing", as a result of which communism would come by itself.

It was he who began to deliberately disperse inflation by limitless emission of the ruble. But the real "emission bacchanalia" began after the end of the Civil War. So, in December 1923, a record amount of money was printed - more than 7,5 trillion rubles, which led to the aforementioned exchange rate.

Obviously, today no one will resort to such methods.

Moreover, the Russian leadership has effective leverage to curb inflation. For example, the re-introduction of the rule for exporters to sell foreign exchange earnings, which was canceled by a decree of the President of the Russian Federation at the beginning of this year.

Comments

[Buyan]

We do not panic, we believe in our boyars

[Smoked]

You do not confuse the boyars and the nouveau riche with the oligarchs. The boyars were originally a service class, the best warriors in the best equipment, whose meaning of life was to fight and die. It was then that they became different and Ivan the Terrible tried to change them, but alas.

[paul3390]

Ivan the Terrible tried to change them, but alas.

We are told: Ivan the Terrible is a bloody villain, because he executed innocent boyars. Have you ever seen innocent boyars? Well, if you look around... (c)

[carpenter]

Quote: paul3390

Have you ever seen innocent boyars? Well, if you look around...

And after Ivan the Terrible, no one executed the boyars, with the exception of Stalin.

[dmi.pris1]

For me, the state of the Russian economy is gasoline at gas stations .. By the way, in the last few weeks, gasoline began to disappear .. The reason? But it looks like the end of the 80s, when soap and tobacco, sugar, etc. began to disappear ... But then there was sabotage

[Smoked]

With fuel, there are exactly two reasons. First, high demand in the foreign market, therefore, pay more here to stay. Second, low demand in the foreign market, therefore, pay more here so that the budget is filled with excises.

[fa2998]

Quote: Smoked

With fuel, there are exactly two reasons. First, high demand in the foreign market, therefore, pay more here to stay. Second, low demand in the foreign market, therefore, pay more here so that the budget is filled with excises.

There is also a third reason - the country is waging war. I have a highway to the border under my window. There is a whirlwind on the road - tanks back and forth. So this is only one road, I think caravans also go to the others.

[carpenter]

Quote from: dmi.pris1

But it looks like the end of the 80s, when soap and tobacco, sugar, etc. began to disappear ... But then there was sabotage

Also in 1917, before the revolution, bread began to disappear from the shelves.

[Rumata]

Bullshit. In the 1990s, the wife said:
- Give me a lemon, I'll go to the market.
This is about $ 5, but you could buy zhrachki from the belly for a week, a full trunk.

[KCA]

In 98-99, when the dollar rose from 6 to 30 rubles, it was not a historical precedent, but just a small thing

[paul3390]

The Central Bank of Russia is already taking measures to curb this negative process

Lies. If he wanted this, he would have done the same as last spring - he banned the export of capital to expensive partners and introduced a 100% sale of foreign exchange earnings. Then the truth, realizing everything was canceled - well, how come, so many respected respectable people stepped on the wallet ..

[dump22]

banned the export of capital to expensive partners

He is banned now.
https://lenta.ru/news/2023/04/11/zapret_i_ugroza/

April 11 2023
Putin announced the positive effect of the ban on the export of capital from Russia

introduced 100% sale of foreign exchange earnings

Introduced 80% sale of proceeds not by the Central Bank, but by the president by his decree. And then he canceled.
https://www.rbc.ru/finances/06/02/2023/63e107ea9a79475227e91dc3

Putin canceled the requirement to sell foreign exchange earnings for a number of exporters
...
After the start of the Russian military operation and the imposition of Western sanctions, Putin ordered exporters to sell first 80% of foreign exchange earnings under all foreign trade agreements, and then 50%.

[Mariupol]

For a year and a half, these capitals were withdrawn from Russia in huge amounts, which exceeds the collapse in 98 and the crisis of 2008! Grandmas are taken out only in this way abroad! And the friends of the top are to blame for everything ... Who don’t need the ruble from the word at all, only for the wages of the peasants ... And they keep their savings abroad in dollars and euros, and then they shout “dedolirization”, only the truth for ordinary people!

[AndreyKam_Z]

and what to buy imports for, you can’t buy a lot of things for rubles and where.

[Brother Ibota]

And here is the capital of partners.
The ruble grew so much against the dollar that people and corporations exchanged them for rubles.
Dollars are needed for the purchase of foreign components for the military-industrial complex. Obviously, the more expensive the exchange rate, the more willing to get rid of the dollar and the euro

[Mariupol]

You see, you don’t really understand how the state’s economy works in the 21st century ... Now almost all production goes to corporations with other countries, for example, the same iPhone, where Korea makes glass, the processor is in Taiwan, and the assembly is in China or India, and everywhere have to pay c.u. (dollar, euro). Dollars are needed not only for the military-industrial complex, but for the functioning of all imports into the country!

[Eug]

First of all, the authorities need a low exchange rate of the ruble - in order to calmly fill the expenditure items of the budget with rubles, while spending a minimum of foreign exchange income ..

[Stas157]

Quote: Eug

to calmly fill the expenditure items of the budget with rubles

Prices will still go up. There will be more rubles (when exchanging for foreign currency), but it will be possible to buy fewer rubles for these rubles. The effect can only be one-time. Inflation quickly levels it.

But where there will really be a long-term (negative) effect is in the social obligations of the state (salaries, pensions, payments related to the SVO, savings of citizens). The collapsed ruble is a way to pay less to your people.

[Brother Ibota]

It depends on what these people who receive rubles will buy. If you go on vacation outside the Russian Federation, then yes, more expensive.
If you buy something domestic, normul in theory

Although there is no domestic one in many industries, everything is China. And China is also imprisoned for dollars

[Mariupol]

Here thoughts about the people are in last place, for example, there is a minister of finance and he has a hole in the budget of 3 trillion rubles in 2023... What is the easiest way to patch this hole and report to the country's leadership? Mining the ruble exchange rate and exchanging the proceeds from oil / gas for rubles, the hole is patched up, a report on the work done is provided, everyone is happy, but the people have become a little poorer ...

[Leader_Barmaleev]

I could understand the fluctuations and weakening of the ruble if the ruble against the dollar was traded on the stock exchange. But the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar is APPOINTED by the central bank. And this is done obviously to please the interests of rather narrow, but extremely influential groups. And since Nabiullina mentions the FRS in her speech more often than the patriarch mentions God, it seems to me that the FSB does not catch mice. Or the FSB ordered not to catch mice by anyone who can order this organization. It's sad, but it's a dialectic - the rich get richer, the poor get poorer, and capital has neither homeland nor nationality.

[Stas157]

Quote: Leader_Barmaleev

if the ruble against the dollar was traded on the stock exchange

So it is traded on the Moscow Exchange. And the yuan too.

[AndreyKam_Z]

Don't talk nonsense, it hurts. The ruble is traded on the stock exchange, the Central Bank sets the rate at the average price until 11.30. The exchange rate is growing, even if we omit the theory of how it is beneficial for the state, due to a reduction in the inflow of dollars into the country and an increase in its outflow from the country.

[Mariupol]

The ruble is traded on the stock exchange, and the ruble is the same fiat currency as the dollar and the euro, the question is different, the ruble is not particularly in demand, so the rate is flying at the peak ... This is the Chinese yuan is not a fully convertible currency, the party indicates what rate should be (in China even two yuan, one for internal use and the other for foreign trade, and there the state tries to keep it in a ratio of 1:1).

[Nicola]

At some gas stations, gasoline has risen in price by 5 rubles, somewhere a little less. For a week, for the spare part I need for a car, the price has risen from 9 thousand to 10 thousand. Here is the dollar exchange rate. bread and small things. The people depend on the dollar exchange rate and feel this course with their own skin.

[Million]

It seems to me that Russia is slowly being drained to please Western partners.
Anything that makes the government-population only worse.

[Vladimir80]

Quote: Million

it seems that Russia is being slowly merged to please Western partners.
Anything that makes the government-population only worse.

It is very similar, as in perestroika - they ruined the country under empty and false chatter

[KCA]

The dollar exchange rate does not always determine the price of the goods, 4 years ago I bought my mother a TV for 20k rubles, just TV, a year later I bought myself a smart TV for 15k rubles, the same 32 inches, LG, but smart and 5k cheaper, although the rate has grown

[UserGun]

Well, in dollars, this product has become much cheaper, most likely due to the fact that it was not in demand. Nothing surprising.

[Buyan]

Quote: Smoked

You do not confuse the boyars and the nouveau riche with the oligarchs. The boyars were originally a service class, the best warriors in the best equipment, whose meaning of life was to fight and die. It was then that they became different and Ivan the Terrible tried to change them, but alas.

Smoked, this is a joke of humor)

[ocean]

Many people have questions about the work of the Central Bank with Nabiullina and Finance Minister Siluanov. Some kind of turbidity ... Everything was smooth, the economy was in 5th place. With what fright did the pandemonium begin with an increase in the exchange rate and interest rates?! It seems that they are doing the will of the IMF and individual people. For whom, in general, do the Central Bank and Siluanov work?

[ave0123]

Quote: ocean

Many people have questions about the work of the Central Bank with Nabiullina and Finance Minister Siluanov. Some kind of turbidity ... Everything was smooth, the economy was in 5th place. With what fright did the pandemonium begin with an increase in the exchange rate and interest rates?! It seems that they are doing the will of the IMF and individual people. For whom, in general, do the Central Bank and Siluanov work?

miracles do not happen: the money supply in the country has grown by about 25% (printed). Accordingly, the ruble exchange rate also began to fall, and salaries and savings, respectively, depreciated. That's where the dollar at 100 comes from.

[Brother Ibota]

The ceiling rate is also useful because, let's say a person has 5 million rubles to get out of the country, he will buy very few euros or dollars on them. He'll think a hundred times before he leaves.
To make citizenship somewhere out there, it’s clearly not enough for this handful of green

[Bayun]

TsifroGosBank (TsGB) will replace the anachronistic material-monetary Central Bank.

Digital E-Ruble based on NATURAL(!) aggregation of prices of everything and everything in strict relation to the workday of mental workers and the standard hour of workers will wipe out usury-speculation-inflation by hand. If there is a "brick" of mutual settlement, then a half-brick or even a half-sand of a brick will NOT come from anywhere with a total ZERO (or positive) balance of the financial AI in the Central State Library.

In the well-known anecdote of bankers "about honey and a jar", a digital bank will exclude the very possibility of honey "sticking".

With the simultaneous return in Rus' of the "Table of Ranks" with a system of a clear "rank-weight-fat" of a person in society and digital bonuses and fines for an honest or dishonest life-existence, the "unemployed-on-Bentleys" will sink into folklore after the "new Russians".

Will a citizen of the Russian Federation be able to exchange an E-Ruble for a Dollar or Euro? Yes, at least at the rate of a loaf of bread, at least at the rate of a liter of gasoline, or even at the rate of a Big Mac. In the absence of an intermediary in the form of a market-bank, the E-Ruble rate will even please compatriots. For example, gasoline will be 3,5 to 1 for Euro;)

Similarly, it is possible and necessary to move away from "reserve currencies" in the BRICS, throwing out the archaic banking system, which is harmful to life and being. If you can DIRECTLY correlate any product with a product and labor hours with a product, then money loses its meaning.

PS: Money is a materialized lie. A clear figure allows you to get away from the "pyramid-scam", where the merchant and financier make money "out of thin air".

[agond]

The first existence of a tax on excess profits has always and everywhere held back the prices of goods and services (a turnover tax is also an effective remedy for rising prices)
Secondly, if we want to somehow influence inflation, then we should take it as an axiom that the receipt of super profits by business in the overwhelming majority of cases is unjustified enrichment, that is, an illegal act.

[vovslev]

They’ve been taxing for so long, the situation is from personal experience: I decided to upgrade the car I bought last year to exactly the same one, don’t ask how, but I managed to buy it abroad for the same price in rubles as last year, but the duty from the semi-lyama has grown to lyama, to go to 0 on his own, threw these half a cartoon. As a result, I changed it for free, bam, and the state requires a 13% tax on these pollamas from me, in excess of the profit, and in general they don’t care that I also paid these pollamas for the same product.

[Fangaro]

The recent decline in our national currency, when 1 US dollar was worth more than 100 rubles, caused serious concern among most ordinary Russians. Strictly speaking, this is not surprising, because the depreciation of money directly affects the rise in prices and, as a result, the well-being of the population.

Wait a minute!!!
We have ruble money! Or is it a dollar? Or again the dollar, as in 89-91?
What kind of article is this about the depreciation of money due to a change in the dollar against the ruble?
Can I go with a cash dollar and buy chicken legs at the store? Or can the self-employment tax be paid in dollars even when the exchange rate is more favorable? Or is the pension converted into rubles based on the ruble/dollar exchange rate?
Can the participants of the SVO have increased the allowance due to the course?

[All_Good]

Russia imports a huge amount of goods that are sold for dollars or for the same yuan, which is also pegged to the dollar. In October, 22 yuan was 8 r, now it's 13. Accordingly, all goods have risen in price. We cannot fully provide for ourselves, but this should not be the case. But why the ruble currency is rubbish, citizens do not understand. Understood now?

[mavrus]

[quote = Rumata] Bullshit. In the 1990s, the wife said:
- Give me a lemon, I'll go to the market.
This is about $ 5, but you could buy zhrachki from the belly for a week, a full trunk.

[/ quote
In 1992, the salary of a senior lieutenant (in terms of dollars) was 6 dollars. I remember this well. And teachers and doctors received even less ... So the zhrachki for a week from the belly was enough, it’s only a pity ... that the salary was given only once a month.

[Amateur]

An old joke from about 1961 (after the Khrushchev devaluation 1:10

Which money is better, old or new?
-of course new
-why?
- with the old ones you take 10 rubles, you go to the market and buy a bag of groceries. Now you take 10 rubles, you go to the market, you buy a bag of groceries and you have a whole ruble of change left!

[Gomunkul]

The recent decline in our national currency, when 1 US dollar was worth more than 100 rubles, caused serious concern among most ordinary Russians.

Today there was already one explanation why it happened:

One of the non-obvious reasons for the weakening of the Russian currency is the rupees hovering in India, the economist, the former head of the Otkritie and VTB 24 banks, as well as the Minister of Finance in 1997-1999, Mikhail Zadornov, is sure. He spoke about this in a conversation with RBC.
The expert explained that Russian companies receive payment for exports in Indian currency, refusing to pay in dollars. At the same time, in the first half of the year, exports to India in monetary terms exceeded imports for the year by about five times (30 billion dollars against 6-7 billion), the potential for purchases in the country has been exhausted, and due to the inconvertibility of rupees, Russia is now unable to return the funds received. .

[Mikhail Ivanov]

The author burns!))) Now I understand why Nabiullina is not being kicked out, the dollar still has room to grow - up to 300 wooden ones)))
Zadornov is the same specialist as Nabiullina.
The weakening of the ruble was made artificially after the rejection of the rule to sell 75% of foreign exchange earnings in Russia, anyone who at least managed to maintain the economic course understands this!

[Ilyas.spb]

Everything is very simple: Russia, as it was a colony, remains so. And in the colony, as we know, people cannot live as well as they live in the metropolis.

[Fangaro]

Ilyas.spb
You made your account look very similar to Ilya.spb
But you didn't become one. You are tongue-tied and primitive presentation is distinguished.

[All_Good]

There are levers, but the ruble is at the bottom. The question is what kind of levers they have or something else, but for some reason no one uses them. It is more likely that in the current situation they are thinking about anyone, about a grain deal, about forgiveness of the debt to Africans, but not about their own people, who are living worse and worse. Some kind of paradox