Overcoming the crisis - the dismantling of the Eurozone
In the 4 of the year since the fall of 2008 of the year, world governments have failed to convince neither business nor the population of the ability to solve global problems. Unable to find answers to global questions, governments switched to solving local problems. On the scale of smaller territories, it turned out that the situation, generally painful, has a very concrete solution. The bad news lies in the fact that neighbors will have to be sacrificed literally.
The Big Bang, the strategy of which American analysts have formulated for the Middle East, will cover all of Europe with a wave and wash away half of European GDP. The implementation of the strategy will directly affect about 1 billion. People: 830 million. - in Europe and 150 million - in North Africa and the Middle East. The main feature of the current situation is an extremely short time during which it was possible to prepare such a large-scale concept for implementation. Active preparations began in 2011, after the revolution in Tunisia, and by indirect evidence it can be assumed that by December 2012, the preparation phase has already been completed. Next - the execution.
It takes a quarter of US GDP
In 2008, financial markets lost from 50% to 75%, wealth turned into smoke at a rate of approximately 10 billion per hour. The fall has stunned both participants and observers, national governments began to announce support measures. One by one, the main central banks began to print money to restore composure and lost fortunes. Total for the period 2009-2012. Only the largest central banks printed about 8 842 billion dollars. You can estimate the amount of incentives if you look at the GDP of the countries of the world. In total, over 4% of global GDP or 10-20% of GDP for each emission territory was printed over the 25 year. For a correct estimate of the resulting 8,85 trillion. dollars you need to add Chinese money, money of the Central Bank of the second echelon, hidden incentives in the form of recapitalization and actually negative interest rates of the main Central Bank. Thus, the total amount of printed wealth may well be close to 20% of global GDP.
The aggressive involvement of Central banks has led to the fact that the value of many assets has almost recovered. After that, the Americans, who were sitting in stocks as the main world consumers, had to feel rich again and start buying new houses, cars and the rest on the little things. Recovery of consumption would confirm the value of factories and ships. But this did not happen, it was not possible to convince Americans to spend more, they began to save.
In order to still return peace and order to the American (the first in terms of capitalization, and therefore the main for capital) market and restore consumption, it is necessary to rewrite the price tag for assets and set it at the level of at least 125% of 2007, for the S & P500 this corresponds to the value of 1 points. According to the IMF, the US GDP in 875 was about $ 2011 trillion. dollars. Where to get another 15 - 3,5 trillion. dollars of Gross Domestic Product? A direct comparison of GDP and stock indices is probably not very correct, and 4,0 points of GDP may not correspond to 10 points of the index. However, the correlation is direct, and in this context the order of magnitude is more important than the magnitude itself. And it turns out that whatever one may say, the United States needs to take a quarter of GDP somewhere.
Fish place
Shale gas, which America had hoped for, turned out to be real and has already given a powerful impetus to its re-industrialization. The largest concerns rewrite their investment plans under the "slate". Plants and plants, one way or another connected with the use and processing of natural gas, are returned to the United States. Vedomosti writes about this in detail in the article “Rusty Belt” of America is reviving thanks to cheap gas. ” But simply increasing jobs is not enough, and 20 or 200 new plants are only half the battle.
The total asset value includes the Base and Multiplicative components. The basic part of the defense is embedded in the hardware: the plant as a means of production is available, the company generates cash flow. The base cost corresponds to the money that shareholders can receive in the form of dividends, and the maximum is the annual profit. The multiplicative part is expectations and forecasts: here taxes and regulation, management talent, worker qualifications, territorial risks, and much more. A company's valuation of 10 annual profits means that 90% of the value is emotion, and only 10% is hardware. For this reason, oil shale reindustrialization will only be able to provide 10% of the cost. In order for the S & P500 to climb 1875 points, emotions are needed in the amount of 9/10 * 25% of US GDP = 3,0 ... 3,5 trillion. dollars.
Cost can be created, but it is long and the result is not guaranteed at all. In addition, shale gas has already identified the “iron” that needs to be capitalized, and nothing new needs to be invented. Given the emotional nature of the cost is much easier, and most importantly, faster to redistribute this cost. In order of magnitude in the world there is one territory that can provide the necessary multiplier for all the "new and old American plants." (See table “GDP of countries of the world") This is Europe.
European Union GDP is equal to that of the United States. The European Union is the 27 of countries, a cumbersome administrative structure and 15 trillion. dollars gdp at all. But on closer examination, it turns out that there are several key areas in Europe that generate gross product: North Rhine-Westphalia in Germany and Ile de France in France. These areas occupy a relatively small area, compact and convenient in terms of cost management. Both districts - beautiful office buildings, exhibitions and conferences, universities, theaters and museums - this is the main showcase of Europe and the immigrant's dream of a beautiful life that has come true, and they confirm their particular interest in these places, from time to time organizing pogroms in the suburbs of Paris.
Ile de France (map - 1)
Paris metropolitan area, total area 12 000 square. km and population 11 million. Gross Regional Product in 2009 - 559 billion Euros or 25% of France's GDP. The most powerful economic center. One-third of the world's largest 500 corporations have their representative offices or branches here. The world's largest center for tourism, conferences and exhibitions. The region attracts the largest amount of foreign investment in France, ranking second in Europe for this indicator. In the Xle-de-France region, 37% of managers and managers of enterprises in the country, 40% of R & D specialists, and most French students work. In 2009, the service sector employed 83% working people in Ильle-de-France.
North Rhine-Westphalia (2 on map)
One of the most economically developed agglomerations of the world. 18% of German exports are produced in the district, more than 23% of German imports are imported. Area 34 000 square. km., population 18 million people (20% of the population). Gross Regional Product in 2009 year - 522 billion euros or 20% of Germany's GDP. 37 of 100 of Germany’s largest enterprises are located in the region, with more than 70% of companies belonging to the middle class. Exceptional geographical accessibility: a developed network of roads and railways. 6 airports serve 450 direct international flights. Once an industrial area with a powerful mining and steel industry, today NRW is the largest cultural, tourist and educational center: 200 museums, 120 theaters, 68 universities and 500 000 students. Bordered by Belgium and the Netherlands.
Ports (on the map - 3, 4, 5)
Rotterdam (Netherlands)
600 000 people, 30% of the population have non-Dutch roots, the burgomaster is Ahmed Abutaleb (Moroccan), the turnover of goods in 2008 year is 10 784 thous. TEU. The main oil port in North-Western Europe.
Hamburg, Germany)
1 770 000 people, 260 000 people (15% of the population) have only foreign citizenship, the turnover of goods in 2008 is 9 737 thousand TEU.
Antwerp (Belgium)
470 000 people, area - 2,85 thousand square meters. km., freight turnover in 2008 year - 8 663 thousand TEU.
Among 50, the world's largest ports in terms of cargo turnover in 2008 were 9 European, which took about 50 000 thousand TEU of cargo. Of these, Rotterdam and Hamburg together provide 40% of this turnover. At the same time, the deep-sea Rotterdam, which is of strategic importance for Europe, is in fact no longer European.
And here the next question arises: how to redistribute the value between the markets?
Big Bang Strategy
The idea of the US presence in the Middle East, publicly formulated in 2006, when Condoleezza Rice began talking about the “New Middle East”, is to “mix pieces on the Middle East chessboard”, “push the deep transformations” and “draw the region into orbit of global processes. " American strategists put the general theses into the concept of the Big Bang. On this topic, one of the authors of the concept, Thomas Barnett, in 2009, published the book Great Powers: America and the World After Bush. In the article "Oriental Shakes" on the Big Bang Strategy, Kommersant-Power # XXUMX writes. After several years, the concept has acquired a well-viewed contour, and some of its components can be identified.
Revolutionary.
The Arab Spring, spontaneously starting on December 17 of 2010 in Tunisia, very quickly became manageable. Through the 2 months, riots and protests were swept across the 20 states of North Africa and the Middle East. By the end of 2012, along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea, with the direct or indirect participation of US special forces, the “Arab Spring” formed a “belt of revolution”. Today, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon are a war zone with the participation of regular armies, pogroms, protests, gunfights, demonstrators, police, tear gas. In total, about 127 million people live in the “revolution belt”.
Religious.
11 September 2012 of the Year on Egypt’s television was shown several snippets from the movie “The Innocence of Muslims”. The video was about the prophet Muhammad in an apparently offensive manner. After the video hit the Internet, riots began in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Lebanon and other Muslim countries. The Pentagon said it was ready to send additional units of marines to 18 countries.
19 September 2012, the French weekly weekly published the cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed. French Foreign Minister spoke out against "any provocations," while simultaneously recalling freedom of speech. After that, as a precautionary measure, France "temporarily" closed its consulates, embassies and schools in 20 Muslim countries.
The military.
September 16 The largest mine action exercises began in the Persian Gulf on 2012. During 12 days, warships from the United States, France, Japan, Britain and other countries worked out ways to eliminate minefields in the Strait of Hormuz in case of a conflict with Iran.
In November, the largest joint exercises of the missile defense and air defense forces of the United States and Israel "Severe Challenge - 12" were held. During 3 weeks, with the participation of 3,5 thousands of US military and 1 thousands of Israeli soldiers worked out "the whole range of joint operations."
In early November, at the Institute of Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv, the beginning of the conflict between Israel and Iran was modeled. According to the scenario, the Israeli Air Force strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities without notifying the United States. Iran responds with a massive blow.
Mechanism.
The idea of the “New Middle East” and the search for donors for the US economy, having arisen as a task at different times and for various reasons, turned out to be rigidly connected with each other. In 2010, the Big Bang Strategy is actually becoming the mechanism for solving US problems.
After the coup in Tunisia in 2010, the inhabitants of the country went in search of a better life. To the Italian island of Lampedusa in 150 km. from the coast of Tunisia, the refugees arrived at the speed of 1000 people / day. Italy officially requested assistance from the European Union, a state of emergency was imposed on the island. Unable to cope on their own, Italy began issuing visas to immigrants, refugees began to spread across Europe.
Ile de France and North Rhine-Westphalia are the largest business centers in Europe. Heads of corporations, directors and managers of companies come to work in offices, meet each other at exhibitions, plan, make decisions. These are people who manage billions of dollars in investments. This group is the main target audience of the project. Arab students who set fire to automobiles in the suburbs of Paris do not pose a great danger so far: the groups are not organized and are few in number, and the police have so far managed to put out disturbances. 100 or 200 burnt cars are no reason to withdraw investment, and now Europe is still a comfortable place to do business. But the situation changes dramatically if 1000-8 million hungry refugees with cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed appear in front of the offices instead of 10 students.
War
By December 2012, the overall composition looks complete and ready for implementation.
Sending side:
1. Major cities and economic zones of the “belt of revolution” as a source of refugees.
2. Rebels and Freedom Fighters undergoing training at bases in Libya, Syria, Jordan, as lighters.
3. US Marines in 18 countries and instructors as a driving force.
The host:
1. Europe’s two main economic zones are Ильle-de-France in France and North Rhine-Westphalia in Germany.
2. Rotterdam and Hamburg as key links in the EU logistics chain.
3. The NATO base “Bondsteel” in the territory of “Independent Kosovo” as the main training center for the executors and coordinator on the host side.
Accompaniment:
1. Information provocations through Islam. Cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed or other variations on this theme will ensure the required temperature of events and hide the main objectives.
2. Food inflation. In 2010’s experience, food riots in developing countries caused by rising prices for basic products often have irreversible democratic consequences.
3. 5 operational fleet of the US Navy in the Persian Gulf. Responsible for timely blocking of major highways and nodes in the Middle East.
In order to close the contour and start the implementation, it is necessary to start, brightly and effectively. In accordance with the baseline scenario of the “war game” of the Israeli Air Force, they strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities. Rocket salvos in the Strait of Hormuz will block 40% of the world's marine supplies of oil and petroleum products. (Lloyd's Marine Statistics Division, 2006). The reaction of the markets will be instant, the oil will start to grow in price. Due to the fact that WTI, having no exports, closes on the domestic market and partially falls out of general pricing, it can be assumed that the focus will be on the Brent variety.
By analogy with 2008, the year of growing oil will increase the cost of final products to the transport component and put the entire business on the verge of profitability. The global economy will begin to collapse branches. Developing countries, particularly in North Africa and the Middle East, will be the first to experience an increase in fuel costs. Small in size, poorly diversified in composition of the economy, with a minimum margin of safety, extremely responsive to any external changes, and the most sensitive point is the rise in food prices. Dear bread and unemployment - this is a hungry population and a lot of free time, and the longer the oil will be expensive, the more active and fiercer the protests will be.
The final goal is European multipliers, and the scale of the project and the price of the issue is such that Americans need to solve the problem from the first time, there may not be a second attempt. All to the maximum: the war of all with all, hunger, hysteria.
The coastal cities of the Mediterranean are, on the one hand, economically active areas with port or tourist infrastructure and, on the other hand, the main source of refugees. In this regard, Egypt with an 80 million population is of exceptional importance. Cairo urban agglomeration and the Suez Canal are the most sensitive areas. Taking into account the fact that in September of this year the mine-sweeping drills were held in the Suez Canal too, the situation in Egypt can develop extremely aggressively.
Salary
At ten-year time intervals, Brent trades in a channel whose boundaries pass through 2001 and 2008 minima and 2008 maximum. The next maximum within this channel is at 160 $, this is the first target level. On 216 $ passes the level of Fibonacci 161,80 to the fall of 2008 of the year. This is the second target level.
In 2008, speculators for no apparent reason drove a barrel on 147 $. Now, large-scale military operations in the oil-producing region with a population of about 150 million are the pretext. It is difficult to come up with a more convincing reason for a short-term purchase of oil. In addition, the entire 2012 year stock market participants spent in a quiet longing: it does not grow, then falls. And the end of the year and the lack of bonuses only reinforces the aching feeling of hunger. In this regard, in the presence of motive and motivation, the level of 160 $ per barrel becomes clear and quickly achievable. Speculators will work out the first goal without additional incentives, within the framework of technical analysis only.
In the 2008 year, the “oil gon” lasted for 2 of the month and 10 days, starting on May 2 from $ 110 per barrel, July 3 reached the first peak and July 13 marked the second. Highs and deadlines will be determined by the USA this time too.
America consumes ~ 20 million bar. per day, of which 75% is provided by export. Maximum commercial reserves (375 mln. Bar. In November), strategic reserves (~ 660 mln. Bar.) And increasing domestic production guarantee the performance of the US economy for at least additional 70 days, even with a general “negative profitability”.
Oil levels of 2008 of the year - this has already happened and therefore is not scary. But 200 $ -220 $ per barrel is a stir, nerves are scary, and this is hysterical. The question of how this is possible, can answer the Pentagon and the media. The US Navy's 5 fleet, on the pretext of providing security, blocks sea shipments in the region, CNN and BBC, using profanity, loudly tell on TV how scary it is to live.
New levels will require additional liquidity. The first source is emission money. Of course, not all $ 8 trillion. or $ 10 trillion will update the commodity highs, but the fact that the printed incentives remained in the banks and did not get to the "land" is a fact. Another source is corporate profits. Every year, Forbes ranks 2000 of the largest public companies and counts their money. In the 2009 year, the rating participants earned $ 1,4 trillion, in the 2010 year - $ 2,4 trillion, in the 2011 year - $ 2,64 trillion. Probably, some of this money went to the “iron”, but most of the money earned lies in banks waiting for better times. The inevitability with which the denouement is approaching forces one to look for opportunities in what is happening. Over the 2 month from current levels, oil can double in price. On Brent futures, this means that the initial amount will increase 2 times over the 20 month. Risks? Yes. But it is also possible that this is a good reason to pay attention to the stock market and get acquainted with some broker.
New Year
After December 2010, problems are growing like a snowball, tension is growing exponentially, and, of course, the United States of America is the most active participant in the events. Having overslept Tunisia, the United States quickly enough returned to active management of the region. On the other hand, excessive demonization of Americans in the person of the State Department hides other equally important participants. There are big doubts that even the United States, with an army of analysts and its military budget, could single-handedly prepare an entire region for the 2 of the year. The role and importance of assistants in the overall result is difficult to overestimate. Sheikhs, kings, freedom fighters, revolutionaries, liberators - many interests and participants, claims in a circle, and everyone thinks that he is the king of the hill. A pot set on fire can boil for a very long time, but some indirect signs suggest that the situation is approaching its end.
Last year, the Americans dragged the entire structure, postponing the start dates. Exercises held in 2012, except for the final trainings, guaranteed the absence of provocations during this period. Until November, this was due to the elections in the United States, but the president was chosen, events are moving into a phase of open hostilities, and there are no reasons, and no means of delay.
When planning big events there is always a penchant for memorable dates. The global outcome of the Big Bang in the 2-3 perspective over the years will be the final dismantling of the Eurozone, with the result that the Federal Reserve Note will remain the only global reserve currency.
History The Fed began with its creation 23 December 1913 of the year. This year's December 23 falls on a Sunday. In this regard, if the acquaintance with the broker did take place, it makes sense to form a position on the Brent futures by Friday 21 December 2012.
Good holidays.
The Big Bang, the strategy of which American analysts have formulated for the Middle East, will cover all of Europe with a wave and wash away half of European GDP. The implementation of the strategy will directly affect about 1 billion. People: 830 million. - in Europe and 150 million - in North Africa and the Middle East. The main feature of the current situation is an extremely short time during which it was possible to prepare such a large-scale concept for implementation. Active preparations began in 2011, after the revolution in Tunisia, and by indirect evidence it can be assumed that by December 2012, the preparation phase has already been completed. Next - the execution.
It takes a quarter of US GDP
In 2008, financial markets lost from 50% to 75%, wealth turned into smoke at a rate of approximately 10 billion per hour. The fall has stunned both participants and observers, national governments began to announce support measures. One by one, the main central banks began to print money to restore composure and lost fortunes. Total for the period 2009-2012. Only the largest central banks printed about 8 842 billion dollars. You can estimate the amount of incentives if you look at the GDP of the countries of the world. In total, over 4% of global GDP or 10-20% of GDP for each emission territory was printed over the 25 year. For a correct estimate of the resulting 8,85 trillion. dollars you need to add Chinese money, money of the Central Bank of the second echelon, hidden incentives in the form of recapitalization and actually negative interest rates of the main Central Bank. Thus, the total amount of printed wealth may well be close to 20% of global GDP.
The aggressive involvement of Central banks has led to the fact that the value of many assets has almost recovered. After that, the Americans, who were sitting in stocks as the main world consumers, had to feel rich again and start buying new houses, cars and the rest on the little things. Recovery of consumption would confirm the value of factories and ships. But this did not happen, it was not possible to convince Americans to spend more, they began to save.
In order to still return peace and order to the American (the first in terms of capitalization, and therefore the main for capital) market and restore consumption, it is necessary to rewrite the price tag for assets and set it at the level of at least 125% of 2007, for the S & P500 this corresponds to the value of 1 points. According to the IMF, the US GDP in 875 was about $ 2011 trillion. dollars. Where to get another 15 - 3,5 trillion. dollars of Gross Domestic Product? A direct comparison of GDP and stock indices is probably not very correct, and 4,0 points of GDP may not correspond to 10 points of the index. However, the correlation is direct, and in this context the order of magnitude is more important than the magnitude itself. And it turns out that whatever one may say, the United States needs to take a quarter of GDP somewhere.
Fish place
Shale gas, which America had hoped for, turned out to be real and has already given a powerful impetus to its re-industrialization. The largest concerns rewrite their investment plans under the "slate". Plants and plants, one way or another connected with the use and processing of natural gas, are returned to the United States. Vedomosti writes about this in detail in the article “Rusty Belt” of America is reviving thanks to cheap gas. ” But simply increasing jobs is not enough, and 20 or 200 new plants are only half the battle.
The total asset value includes the Base and Multiplicative components. The basic part of the defense is embedded in the hardware: the plant as a means of production is available, the company generates cash flow. The base cost corresponds to the money that shareholders can receive in the form of dividends, and the maximum is the annual profit. The multiplicative part is expectations and forecasts: here taxes and regulation, management talent, worker qualifications, territorial risks, and much more. A company's valuation of 10 annual profits means that 90% of the value is emotion, and only 10% is hardware. For this reason, oil shale reindustrialization will only be able to provide 10% of the cost. In order for the S & P500 to climb 1875 points, emotions are needed in the amount of 9/10 * 25% of US GDP = 3,0 ... 3,5 trillion. dollars.
Cost can be created, but it is long and the result is not guaranteed at all. In addition, shale gas has already identified the “iron” that needs to be capitalized, and nothing new needs to be invented. Given the emotional nature of the cost is much easier, and most importantly, faster to redistribute this cost. In order of magnitude in the world there is one territory that can provide the necessary multiplier for all the "new and old American plants." (See table “GDP of countries of the world") This is Europe.
European Union GDP is equal to that of the United States. The European Union is the 27 of countries, a cumbersome administrative structure and 15 trillion. dollars gdp at all. But on closer examination, it turns out that there are several key areas in Europe that generate gross product: North Rhine-Westphalia in Germany and Ile de France in France. These areas occupy a relatively small area, compact and convenient in terms of cost management. Both districts - beautiful office buildings, exhibitions and conferences, universities, theaters and museums - this is the main showcase of Europe and the immigrant's dream of a beautiful life that has come true, and they confirm their particular interest in these places, from time to time organizing pogroms in the suburbs of Paris.
Ile de France (map - 1)
Paris metropolitan area, total area 12 000 square. km and population 11 million. Gross Regional Product in 2009 - 559 billion Euros or 25% of France's GDP. The most powerful economic center. One-third of the world's largest 500 corporations have their representative offices or branches here. The world's largest center for tourism, conferences and exhibitions. The region attracts the largest amount of foreign investment in France, ranking second in Europe for this indicator. In the Xle-de-France region, 37% of managers and managers of enterprises in the country, 40% of R & D specialists, and most French students work. In 2009, the service sector employed 83% working people in Ильle-de-France.
North Rhine-Westphalia (2 on map)
One of the most economically developed agglomerations of the world. 18% of German exports are produced in the district, more than 23% of German imports are imported. Area 34 000 square. km., population 18 million people (20% of the population). Gross Regional Product in 2009 year - 522 billion euros or 20% of Germany's GDP. 37 of 100 of Germany’s largest enterprises are located in the region, with more than 70% of companies belonging to the middle class. Exceptional geographical accessibility: a developed network of roads and railways. 6 airports serve 450 direct international flights. Once an industrial area with a powerful mining and steel industry, today NRW is the largest cultural, tourist and educational center: 200 museums, 120 theaters, 68 universities and 500 000 students. Bordered by Belgium and the Netherlands.
Ports (on the map - 3, 4, 5)
Rotterdam (Netherlands)
600 000 people, 30% of the population have non-Dutch roots, the burgomaster is Ahmed Abutaleb (Moroccan), the turnover of goods in 2008 year is 10 784 thous. TEU. The main oil port in North-Western Europe.
Hamburg, Germany)
1 770 000 people, 260 000 people (15% of the population) have only foreign citizenship, the turnover of goods in 2008 is 9 737 thousand TEU.
Antwerp (Belgium)
470 000 people, area - 2,85 thousand square meters. km., freight turnover in 2008 year - 8 663 thousand TEU.
Among 50, the world's largest ports in terms of cargo turnover in 2008 were 9 European, which took about 50 000 thousand TEU of cargo. Of these, Rotterdam and Hamburg together provide 40% of this turnover. At the same time, the deep-sea Rotterdam, which is of strategic importance for Europe, is in fact no longer European.
And here the next question arises: how to redistribute the value between the markets?
Big Bang Strategy
The idea of the US presence in the Middle East, publicly formulated in 2006, when Condoleezza Rice began talking about the “New Middle East”, is to “mix pieces on the Middle East chessboard”, “push the deep transformations” and “draw the region into orbit of global processes. " American strategists put the general theses into the concept of the Big Bang. On this topic, one of the authors of the concept, Thomas Barnett, in 2009, published the book Great Powers: America and the World After Bush. In the article "Oriental Shakes" on the Big Bang Strategy, Kommersant-Power # XXUMX writes. After several years, the concept has acquired a well-viewed contour, and some of its components can be identified.
Revolutionary.
The Arab Spring, spontaneously starting on December 17 of 2010 in Tunisia, very quickly became manageable. Through the 2 months, riots and protests were swept across the 20 states of North Africa and the Middle East. By the end of 2012, along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea, with the direct or indirect participation of US special forces, the “Arab Spring” formed a “belt of revolution”. Today, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon are a war zone with the participation of regular armies, pogroms, protests, gunfights, demonstrators, police, tear gas. In total, about 127 million people live in the “revolution belt”.
Religious.
11 September 2012 of the Year on Egypt’s television was shown several snippets from the movie “The Innocence of Muslims”. The video was about the prophet Muhammad in an apparently offensive manner. After the video hit the Internet, riots began in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Lebanon and other Muslim countries. The Pentagon said it was ready to send additional units of marines to 18 countries.
19 September 2012, the French weekly weekly published the cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed. French Foreign Minister spoke out against "any provocations," while simultaneously recalling freedom of speech. After that, as a precautionary measure, France "temporarily" closed its consulates, embassies and schools in 20 Muslim countries.
The military.
September 16 The largest mine action exercises began in the Persian Gulf on 2012. During 12 days, warships from the United States, France, Japan, Britain and other countries worked out ways to eliminate minefields in the Strait of Hormuz in case of a conflict with Iran.
In November, the largest joint exercises of the missile defense and air defense forces of the United States and Israel "Severe Challenge - 12" were held. During 3 weeks, with the participation of 3,5 thousands of US military and 1 thousands of Israeli soldiers worked out "the whole range of joint operations."
In early November, at the Institute of Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv, the beginning of the conflict between Israel and Iran was modeled. According to the scenario, the Israeli Air Force strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities without notifying the United States. Iran responds with a massive blow.
Mechanism.
The idea of the “New Middle East” and the search for donors for the US economy, having arisen as a task at different times and for various reasons, turned out to be rigidly connected with each other. In 2010, the Big Bang Strategy is actually becoming the mechanism for solving US problems.
After the coup in Tunisia in 2010, the inhabitants of the country went in search of a better life. To the Italian island of Lampedusa in 150 km. from the coast of Tunisia, the refugees arrived at the speed of 1000 people / day. Italy officially requested assistance from the European Union, a state of emergency was imposed on the island. Unable to cope on their own, Italy began issuing visas to immigrants, refugees began to spread across Europe.
The big bang, aimed primarily at the demonstration effect, was also to be a direct, frank attempt to shake the stagnant Middle East, where decades of diplomatic efforts and military response from external forces, primarily the US, to local crises did not lead to any results. "
Thomas Barnett, the ideologist of the Big Bang Strategy
Thomas Barnett, the ideologist of the Big Bang Strategy
Ile de France and North Rhine-Westphalia are the largest business centers in Europe. Heads of corporations, directors and managers of companies come to work in offices, meet each other at exhibitions, plan, make decisions. These are people who manage billions of dollars in investments. This group is the main target audience of the project. Arab students who set fire to automobiles in the suburbs of Paris do not pose a great danger so far: the groups are not organized and are few in number, and the police have so far managed to put out disturbances. 100 or 200 burnt cars are no reason to withdraw investment, and now Europe is still a comfortable place to do business. But the situation changes dramatically if 1000-8 million hungry refugees with cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed appear in front of the offices instead of 10 students.
War
By December 2012, the overall composition looks complete and ready for implementation.
Sending side:
1. Major cities and economic zones of the “belt of revolution” as a source of refugees.
2. Rebels and Freedom Fighters undergoing training at bases in Libya, Syria, Jordan, as lighters.
3. US Marines in 18 countries and instructors as a driving force.
The host:
1. Europe’s two main economic zones are Ильle-de-France in France and North Rhine-Westphalia in Germany.
2. Rotterdam and Hamburg as key links in the EU logistics chain.
3. The NATO base “Bondsteel” in the territory of “Independent Kosovo” as the main training center for the executors and coordinator on the host side.
Accompaniment:
1. Information provocations through Islam. Cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed or other variations on this theme will ensure the required temperature of events and hide the main objectives.
2. Food inflation. In 2010’s experience, food riots in developing countries caused by rising prices for basic products often have irreversible democratic consequences.
3. 5 operational fleet of the US Navy in the Persian Gulf. Responsible for timely blocking of major highways and nodes in the Middle East.
In order to close the contour and start the implementation, it is necessary to start, brightly and effectively. In accordance with the baseline scenario of the “war game” of the Israeli Air Force, they strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities. Rocket salvos in the Strait of Hormuz will block 40% of the world's marine supplies of oil and petroleum products. (Lloyd's Marine Statistics Division, 2006). The reaction of the markets will be instant, the oil will start to grow in price. Due to the fact that WTI, having no exports, closes on the domestic market and partially falls out of general pricing, it can be assumed that the focus will be on the Brent variety.
By analogy with 2008, the year of growing oil will increase the cost of final products to the transport component and put the entire business on the verge of profitability. The global economy will begin to collapse branches. Developing countries, particularly in North Africa and the Middle East, will be the first to experience an increase in fuel costs. Small in size, poorly diversified in composition of the economy, with a minimum margin of safety, extremely responsive to any external changes, and the most sensitive point is the rise in food prices. Dear bread and unemployment - this is a hungry population and a lot of free time, and the longer the oil will be expensive, the more active and fiercer the protests will be.
The final goal is European multipliers, and the scale of the project and the price of the issue is such that Americans need to solve the problem from the first time, there may not be a second attempt. All to the maximum: the war of all with all, hunger, hysteria.
The coastal cities of the Mediterranean are, on the one hand, economically active areas with port or tourist infrastructure and, on the other hand, the main source of refugees. In this regard, Egypt with an 80 million population is of exceptional importance. Cairo urban agglomeration and the Suez Canal are the most sensitive areas. Taking into account the fact that in September of this year the mine-sweeping drills were held in the Suez Canal too, the situation in Egypt can develop extremely aggressively.
Salary
At ten-year time intervals, Brent trades in a channel whose boundaries pass through 2001 and 2008 minima and 2008 maximum. The next maximum within this channel is at 160 $, this is the first target level. On 216 $ passes the level of Fibonacci 161,80 to the fall of 2008 of the year. This is the second target level.
In 2008, speculators for no apparent reason drove a barrel on 147 $. Now, large-scale military operations in the oil-producing region with a population of about 150 million are the pretext. It is difficult to come up with a more convincing reason for a short-term purchase of oil. In addition, the entire 2012 year stock market participants spent in a quiet longing: it does not grow, then falls. And the end of the year and the lack of bonuses only reinforces the aching feeling of hunger. In this regard, in the presence of motive and motivation, the level of 160 $ per barrel becomes clear and quickly achievable. Speculators will work out the first goal without additional incentives, within the framework of technical analysis only.
In the 2008 year, the “oil gon” lasted for 2 of the month and 10 days, starting on May 2 from $ 110 per barrel, July 3 reached the first peak and July 13 marked the second. Highs and deadlines will be determined by the USA this time too.
America consumes ~ 20 million bar. per day, of which 75% is provided by export. Maximum commercial reserves (375 mln. Bar. In November), strategic reserves (~ 660 mln. Bar.) And increasing domestic production guarantee the performance of the US economy for at least additional 70 days, even with a general “negative profitability”.
Oil levels of 2008 of the year - this has already happened and therefore is not scary. But 200 $ -220 $ per barrel is a stir, nerves are scary, and this is hysterical. The question of how this is possible, can answer the Pentagon and the media. The US Navy's 5 fleet, on the pretext of providing security, blocks sea shipments in the region, CNN and BBC, using profanity, loudly tell on TV how scary it is to live.
New levels will require additional liquidity. The first source is emission money. Of course, not all $ 8 trillion. or $ 10 trillion will update the commodity highs, but the fact that the printed incentives remained in the banks and did not get to the "land" is a fact. Another source is corporate profits. Every year, Forbes ranks 2000 of the largest public companies and counts their money. In the 2009 year, the rating participants earned $ 1,4 trillion, in the 2010 year - $ 2,4 trillion, in the 2011 year - $ 2,64 trillion. Probably, some of this money went to the “iron”, but most of the money earned lies in banks waiting for better times. The inevitability with which the denouement is approaching forces one to look for opportunities in what is happening. Over the 2 month from current levels, oil can double in price. On Brent futures, this means that the initial amount will increase 2 times over the 20 month. Risks? Yes. But it is also possible that this is a good reason to pay attention to the stock market and get acquainted with some broker.
New Year
After December 2010, problems are growing like a snowball, tension is growing exponentially, and, of course, the United States of America is the most active participant in the events. Having overslept Tunisia, the United States quickly enough returned to active management of the region. On the other hand, excessive demonization of Americans in the person of the State Department hides other equally important participants. There are big doubts that even the United States, with an army of analysts and its military budget, could single-handedly prepare an entire region for the 2 of the year. The role and importance of assistants in the overall result is difficult to overestimate. Sheikhs, kings, freedom fighters, revolutionaries, liberators - many interests and participants, claims in a circle, and everyone thinks that he is the king of the hill. A pot set on fire can boil for a very long time, but some indirect signs suggest that the situation is approaching its end.
Last year, the Americans dragged the entire structure, postponing the start dates. Exercises held in 2012, except for the final trainings, guaranteed the absence of provocations during this period. Until November, this was due to the elections in the United States, but the president was chosen, events are moving into a phase of open hostilities, and there are no reasons, and no means of delay.
When planning big events there is always a penchant for memorable dates. The global outcome of the Big Bang in the 2-3 perspective over the years will be the final dismantling of the Eurozone, with the result that the Federal Reserve Note will remain the only global reserve currency.
History The Fed began with its creation 23 December 1913 of the year. This year's December 23 falls on a Sunday. In this regard, if the acquaintance with the broker did take place, it makes sense to form a position on the Brent futures by Friday 21 December 2012.
Good holidays.
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