The rebellion of Prigozhin, Wagner, or something else?
The events that began to unfold yesterday and continue to do so today make it very hard to try to understand what is happening, especially considering that both sides of these events (or the Prigozhin-Shoigu conflict) are in no hurry to share details.
Let's try to look at a certain chronology of events and analyze what is happening as much as possible and comment on what is happening as well as possible.
1. It all started with the very video thrown into the information space, which spoke about the strike of Russian helicopters on the Wagner PMC camp.
The video was seen by everyone or almost everyone, let's say, the video is ambiguous. Raised a lot of questions, yes, to be honest, it really looked more than strange. There were bad thoughts about setting up, hacking an account, the work of Ukrainian special services. It is difficult to judge what really happened there.
2. The Ministry of Defense on Friday evening reports that the information on behalf of Prigozhin about the alleged strike on the Wagner rear camps is a lie and a provocation.
The reaction is expected and logical, especially since there are more than enough oddities. I wanted to believe more in burglary and provocation than in the fact that our military beat their own.
3. The NAC says that the FSB opened a case on the fact of calling for an armed rebellion. The Prosecutor General's Office clarifies that the case against Prigozhin was opened under Article 279. Organization of an armed rebellion or active participation in it in order to overthrow or forcibly change the constitutional order of the Russian Federation, or violate the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation.
For the commission of this crime, punishment is provided in the form of imprisonment for a term of twelve to twenty years with restriction of freedom for a term of up to two years.
A difficult task, but not an impossible one. Prigozhin was definitely not going to overthrow the government, the declared “let's go to Moscow for a showdown” looks somehow childish, to be honest, if Prigozhin himself wanted to violate the territorial integrity, then only with the tricolor in Kiev and the annexation of part of Ukraine.
But the impossible, I repeat, in this situation, no. There are only options and nuances.
4. The FSB Public Relations Center reported that Prigozhin's words - calls for an armed civil conflict in the Russian Federation - are a "stab in the back" of the Russian military. The CSO of the FSB urged PMC fighters not to make mistakes, not to carry out the criminal and treacherous orders of Prigogine and to take measures to detain him
5. General Surovikin calls on the commanders and fighters of the Wagner group to obey the will of the President of the Russian Federation and resolve the issue peacefully.
It looks strange, because the president did not seem to give any orders and did not express his will. And how much Prigozhin himself pecked that Wagner unconditionally obeys the will of the President of the Russian Federation, it becomes a little unclear what is at stake. The solution of the “issue by peaceful means” is again unclear here, because it has not been announced what issue is being discussed at all.
It is obvious that we simply do not know any amount of information, and Surovikin and Prigogine are in no hurry to share it. They just speak publicly for each other, understanding everything perfectly. For the layman, all this again causes bewilderment.
6. The Ministry of Defense reported that after the provocation of Prigozhin, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are concentrating forces in the Bakhmutov direction for an offensive, and strikes are being made on the enemy.
It is very logical for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it is very good that the MoD reacts accordingly.
7. Prigozhin declares that the Wagner convoy is moving towards Rostov.
Subsequently, the column reached Rostov-on-Don, settled down in the city, Prigogine is talking with Yevkurov and Alekseev.
He says that he is not going to interfere with the command and control of the troops, and he took control of the airfield so that the attack aircraft would work for the Ukrainians, and not for his fighters.
8. On Channel One, the video about the alleged attack on the camp of the Wagner group was called a production.
9. Peskov said that the Ministry of Defense, the FSB, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Russian Guard report round the clock to Putin about the measures. He added that Prosecutor General Krasnov reported to Putin about the criminal case against Prigozhin.
10. The authorities of Moscow, the Krasnodar Territory and the Rostov Region reported at night that the situation in the regions was calm.
Why shouldn't she be calm?
11. The government of the Voronezh region stated that a convoy of military equipment was moving along the M-4 Don road, the situation was under control. And just in case, the CTO regime was announced, the entrances to the city / from the city towards the M4 are blocked.
12. The Governor of the Rostov Region urged people to refrain from traveling to the center of Rostov-on-Don and, if possible, not to leave their homes.
13. The Russian Ministry of Defense addresses the Wagner fighters:
Many of your comrades from several squads have already realized their mistake in asking for help in ensuring the ability to safely return to their places of permanent deployment. Such assistance from our side has already been provided to all the fighters and commanders who applied.
We ask you to be prudent and get in touch with representatives of the Russian Ministry of Defense or law enforcement agencies as soon as possible.
We guarantee everyone's safety.
14. In Moscow, equipment on the streets, from Moscow, equipment on the M4, moving south. And, in huge quantities. The Wagner convoy seems to be moving towards Moscow, Prigozhin is sitting (and says he will be) in Rostov-on-Don.
But communication with Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Yevkurov and First Deputy Head of the GRU Alekseev is nothing more than a declaration, because Prigozhin wants to talk with Shoigu and Gerasimov.
Putin's speech dotted all the letters. Everything that happens is a rebellion, the leaders / instigators are traitors. The armed forces and other security forces have received an order from the president.
That is, they will shoot at yesterday's heroes of Bakhmut. Then they will rip off their awards, send them in accordance with the sentences ... In general, we can say that on this story PMC "Wagner" may end.
In general, there is a real bust. Tanks on the streets of Rostov-on-Don, a convoy of vehicles to Moscow is not a method for solving a problem that has arisen.
Here Prigogine went too far. In general, their battles with Shoigu did not benefit, and it is very difficult to say who has more sins, but even in the event of an actual attack on the location of PMCs, it was worth dealing with other methods.
The MoD says it has nothing to do with the Wagner attack. All right, do an investigation and find out who's involved. Someone must be guilty of the deaths of seven people? And clearly the attack was not arranged by aliens. The question is how to conduct this investigation.
The one that Prigozhin chose is not the best. In his address, Putin did not leave Prigogine a way to retreat, he promised him inevitable punishment. So there are no options - no one will negotiate with anyone now. And yesterday's heroes of Soledar and Bakhmut will appear tomorrow in a completely different status.
I very much hope that despite all these columns with equipment, they will still manage without firing. A civil war - that is what is called when Russians shoot at Russians, under whatever sauce it is served - is a tragedy for the country. We do not have such a huge number of people that we can afford to exterminate a part, even if it has lost its shores. Still, these are our people who wholeheartedly fought for Russia.
It’s unpleasant, but there are so many Heroes of Russia, who were awarded by Putin himself ...
And one more unpleasant moment for Russia, which is the last thing to think about, but worth it. "Wagner" had a very decent position in Africa. The only continent where Russia is still somehow quoted. Yes, Mali, the Central African Republic, Sudan and all the others are countries not even of the third, but of the fourth world. But nevertheless, thanks to the efforts of Prigozhin and the company, the Russian Federation has some weight there. In the African resource market. Take away the Wagner - and the Africans will not go anywhere, they will bow to the Chinese. And it will be a completely different story.
It is worth understanding the "Wagners". Everyone wants to live. Only a completely stupid or desperate person seeks to die. It is very sad when in the prime of life a person dies, even if he has stumbled, but strives to wash it away by serving the country. When they die due to stupidity or due to betrayal, it is triple insulting.
We obviously do not have all the information about what really happened between Prigozhin and the Moscow Region, but everything is not so clean and smooth there that it would be possible to unequivocally write Prigozhin as a traitor. We need a trial, we need a trial. Prigozhin, as well as the very last fighter of the Wagner PMC, have earned the right to a trial.
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