Russian oil - new duties, old prices
Where is the Vanguard?
Problems in the global fuel and energy complex were outlined even before the pandemic, but it was after it that it became clear that even due to such global measures as the OPEC+ agreements, big problems in the industry cannot be avoided. The NWO, which began in February last year, however, did not aggravate them at all.
Rather, it exposed and forced to do something else, in addition to introducing a price ceiling and an embargo. However, the loyalty of the entire world East, as opposed to the conditional West, in relation to Russia is a truly unique chance, despite all the hysteria of Western politicians, analysts and biased media.
And this is a chance for a full-fledged exit from the energy inequality that has developed over decades. Rising global giants like China and India are unlikely to miss the opportunities presented to them by the unexpected ease with which the US is ready to simply merge the EU as a global competitor.
We must not forget that the new potential leaders are deeply indifferent to all sorts of propaganda green and alternative projects, as well as oil-producing countries, which are not threatened by poverty a priori. In the current situation, they will simply skim off their share of the cream.
But it may take years for a new energy disassembly, as, apparently, for the NBO, but nevertheless, the outcome is quite predictable in both cases. IN stories there has never been such a global outcome that the winners turned out to be a force that was not backed up by something more real than gold and its analogues.
Even the nomads had a completely reliable rear, or they quickly turned the conquered territories into such. In the current deep conflict with the collective West, essentially between consumers and energy producers, between liberal and other economic models, Russia is only the vanguard. And perhaps even stronger than the main forces.
Where is that Kyiv - as a disguise for the crisis?
The uneven economic recovery, just like Marx, disrupted supply chains, inflation and the fight against it by the largest central banks through a primitive increase in interest rates, continue to put pressure on the global economy. However, it refuses to switch to a war footing, unlike the Russian one, which is why the risks of sliding into a recession are only growing.
For 2022, everyone planned the recovery of the global economy after the COVID-19 pandemic, but Russia let it down, which was simply forced into the notorious invasion. And the fact that it turned into liberation and reunification only irritates the West more.
But the precedent for the relatively comfortable existence of Israel with the inclusion of almost all the once occupied territories, up to the transfer of the capital to such Jerusalem, has not disappeared. Turkey, with all its "powerful" presidents, has not been gifted with northern Cyprus, and Albania itself has refused Kosovo, being frightened of a mass of problems.
Similar examples in less publicized cases can be listed almost indefinitely. What is allowed to Jupiter, as you know, is not allowed to the bull. And the point is not in these examples. If someone has room to grow, and Russia is generally out of competition in this regard, then the West exhausted its growth potential yesterday.
The virtualization of the economy and the actual GDP there has reached unimaginable proportions. And the emergence of such pearls as cryptocurrency and the production of money, if not out of thin air, then simply out of thousands of kilowatts, is no longer just an embodied dystopia, it is a real threat of the collapse of the economy in its traditional sense.
And where is the weak link?
It is clear that the collapse does not await everyone, but first of all those who have no straw left to put. So they are pressing on Russia, considering it to be a “weak link” in the circle of those who still have something in reserve. The fact that the weak turned out to be stubbornly strong, and even supported, albeit indirectly, by the really strong, was an unpleasant surprise.
However, from across the ocean they beat, although camouflaged, not only ours, but also “their own”. And it's good that we (more precisely, the sensible majority, we hope) have already understood this. What happened to gas cannot but be used for the sake of gasification within Russia of everything that is possible, although the difficulties with infrastructure are simply unthinkable.
However, not everything earned is spent only on the war. And not everything is taken offshore. And after all, even just people can not pay too much - they, the people, did not endure such things with us. There are by no means few industries in demand, and, in addition to those that the same gasification will entail, in the country.
Import substitution is no longer just a beautiful appeal, but simply a way to survive. Or what - "Caliber" with "Solntsepyok" can, but "Peregrine Falcon" and a decent suspension for trucks is already weak? Even draw from enemies? Draw and start making, and even sell to the same Chinese and Koreans, if they themselves can’t cope. They don't cope...
Where is the money - for everything about everything?
We will believe that the Russians will not fight for as long as someone in the West and somewhere in Kyiv would like. However, Russia's military spending, even in the event of a victory, is unlikely to be greatly reduced. Who would argue with this, but not the authors. And we will have to continue earning the very “necessary money”, mainly on oil and gas.
The contribution of other industries, even nuclear, is still modest compared to them. Hence, a few paragraphs about what a noticeable increase in the export duty on oil will give us, and what prices to expect on the markets after that. Moreover, there are enough screams about the fact that anyone but the state treasury earns on cheap Russian Urals.
So, instead of 12,8 dollars for the export of a ton of oil from March 1, you have to pay 14,2 dollars. Compared to the price of a ton of Urals oil, Russia's main export brand, which is $368,7 per ton (or $50,51 per barrel), the increase will be less than 0,4 percent. It is clear that this practically cannot affect the selling price.
However, thanks to this decision, oil revenues from customs rise immediately by 11 percent, which is very significant for the treasury. And it is absolutely certain that instead of being dumped offshore, the funds will go to Russia.
Indeed, there has been no talk of a real increase in investments in processing, especially deep processing, due to excess export earnings within the country for many years. Oil giants are more likely to modernize their foreign refineries, including those in Belarus, than Russian ones.
The maximum that can be credited to domestic processors is the growth in the share of higher-quality high-octane fuel grades. Experts regarding the increase in customs fees remind that it is not supported by any measures to tighten currency control in the country.
It is this, in our (and not only our) opinion, that most of all reduces the volume of revenues to the treasury. However, the course towards currency liberalization, long adopted by our Central Bank, has remained unchanged for many years. Despite the SVO and the demonstrative and supposedly widespread rejection of dollar settlements.
It remains to be recalled that, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Russia is reducing oil production by 500 barrels per day. Accordingly, exports will also be lower, because our country is not going to sell its black gold at any price, that is, at any, and therefore at bargain prices.
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