Earthquake will make adjustments to the course of the election campaign in Turkey

22
Earthquake will make adjustments to the course of the election campaign in Turkey


Catastrophe


On February 6, with a difference of ten hours in Turkey and Syria, two powerful tremors occurred with a magnitude of 7,8 and 7,5 on the Richter scale. By the end of the day on February 7, Ankara and Damascus confirmed the deaths of 4 and 544 people, more than 1 people were injured of varying severity in both countries, and tens of thousands more were left without funds and housing. The tragedy threatens to be the largest single natural disaster in Turkey and Syria in 509 years. Turkey has shifted three meters to the south in a day.



Shaking in Iran, Lebanon, Armenia, Iraq, Cyprus. In total, more than 540 aftershocks of various magnitudes passed through the region. The epicenter with mass destruction fell between the provinces of Kahramanmarash and Gaziantep, the Syrian provinces and the cities of Aleppo and Homs were affected, where houses settled in blocks. In the city of Hama, the sister of the Prime Minister of the SAR died (and this is three hundred kilometers from the epicenter). In Latakia, the earthquake collapsed a multi-storey building, a hotel, but on the whole it passed “on a tangent”, and the Khmeimim airbase did not receive any damage, at least “the duty forces are on duty as usual”, as stated in the Russian Defense Ministry.

The tremors have sparked speculation that such a sensitive substance as natural gas could eventually end up in an unsafe area along with pipelines, and these are risks for the recently discussed gas hub. But in this case, it is precisely the gas supply routes that run along a relatively seismically stable direction. Turkish Stream enters the European part of Turkey. But the oil pipelines leading to the port of Ceyhan really suffered, although they were not stopped. The construction of the Akkuyu NPP has not been disrupted either.

On the one hand, it is not very correct to immediately discuss the possible political and economic consequences in the wake of such a tragedy. And first of all, of course, it is necessary to offer condolences.

But, on the other hand, already today in Turkey and Syria, events that are in many ways unique for the region are taking place - such a number of teams that came to the aid of the victims, and in such a composition, is rare to observe. Aircraft from Iran, Israel, China, Azerbaijan, Armenia, UAE, Algeria, Russia, Greece, the United States, Serbia are on the adjacent lanes, and rescuers from Ukraine are also arriving, and this is not a complete list of countries providing assistance. More than 30 countries in total. There is no Sweden, but this is quite explainable by the very difficult relations of the last period.

Such unity against the background of three active nodes of armed confrontation (Ukraine, Syria, Iran) and two smoldering ones (Greece, Karabakh), of course, does not mean that tomorrow, according to the words of the prophet Isaiah, “the wolf will live with the lamb, and the leopard will lie with goat", but quite unequivocally indicates that it becomes difficult for all parties to maintain a common high level of tension and mutual pressure. And the point is not even in the actual military actions on the ground or threats, but in the desire, as they say, "in general" to lower the tension at least somewhere, not yielding in matters of principle.

If it is definitely not worth expecting a special decrease in the degree between Russia and Ukraine, Iran and Israel now, then this is quite possible on the Turkish-Syrian track, the Karabakh and the Aegean Sea. N. Pashinyan expressed condolences to R. Erdogan. For R. Erdogan, to develop the dialogue that has begun with Damascus would be a completely adequate decision from any side, both ethically and politically, especially since the normalization of relations and the issue of refugees is included in his “pre-election case”. Similarly, with the issue of developing a ground operation in the border Kurdish regions, the most appropriate solution would be to postpone it. Now it will definitely not cause enthusiasm even among the right wing.

Pre-election adjustments


For the Turkish opposition, a natural disaster does not promise additional prospects, so to speak. The fact is that if in January the ratings were, as they say, "working", today it becomes clear that the damage has been very significant, R. Erdogan's cabinet will have to deal with human problems. All this means additional public support for him.

Naturally, the Turkish parliament and opposition platforms launched a wave of criticism against R. Erdogan, who, they say, for years did not pay due attention to strengthening the seismic resistance of cities, referring to the experience of the infamous 1999 Izmit earthquake, raised issues of building standards. But it is also clear that no one can fully predict such cataclysms anywhere. Israel just recently declared that they are able to make forecasts in 48 hours. And Israel, after all, also shook, but somehow it didn’t work out with the forecasts. Earthquakes and forest fires are two of Turkey's annual problems.

For the Turkish opposition, it is desirable that R. Erdogan shift the date of the elections "to the right", but local observers and political scientists generally agree that he will not agree to the postponement. With the January fluctuation in ratings, it will be easier and more efficient for the Turkish president to enter the elections by solving problems. All that has happened, undoubtedly, makes strong adjustments to the pre-election alignment of forces and strategies. But such circumstances do not choose. Now for the Turkish leader, the main task is to involve his entire cabinet and representatives of the AKP as much as possible in resolving issues of eliminating the consequences of the disaster and in working directly at the sites of the disaster.

For Russia, the more confidently R. Erdogan overcomes the bar of 50% of the vote, the better. The day before, Turkish Minister of the Interior S. Soylu suggested to the American ambassador "to remove dirty hands and grinning faces in masks" and to stop agitating society through bribing journalists. The head of the Turkish Ministry of Internal Affairs is not the first to make such statements, but it is clear that this is always part of the overall strategy, and not amateur performance.

R. Erdogan has long been like a bone in the throat for the US and the EU, and for London, Turkey is an element of a large separate game. The opposition is more convenient for each of these players. Incidents with embassies have been constant in recent months - neither the British, nor the Americans, nor the French even try to hide attempts to interact with the opposition. There have already been attempts to carry out attacks on gas pipelines. The same happens with respect to incidents with fires, local crises.

However, today, with such a scale of the tragedy, to stir up the Turkish society so brazenly and openly is too much even for the American representation. Especially after the crazy scenes with the burning of the Koran in Sweden and Denmark.

It is no longer possible to fully use the media resource. Therefore, the chances of the opposition "six seats", this time really potentially really high, are unlikely to work.
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22 comments
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  1. 0
    February 9 2023
    Everything is logical, why should Erdogan "tease the geese", postpone the elections ..
  2. +2
    February 9 2023
    Nice article, thanks! I hope it’s not Erdogan’s friend who can handle it.
    1. +7
      February 9 2023
      Thanks for the rating. The only thing was written yesterday at night, so the figures for the victims, of course, have changed. In Syria, they slightly decreased, in Turkey, on the contrary, they increased.
      1. +3
        February 9 2023
        Yes, it’s just a nightmare there, entire neighborhoods were wiped out, mostly border cities with Syria suffered. A group of volunteers flew from Kazan in the direction of Turkey, many of them helped in the Donbass, now they have gone to Turkey.
      2. +4
        February 9 2023
        Michael, I welcome you! You can’t help but think about the fact that Erdogan clearly has patronage among higher powers. How else to explain such a striking, albeit very tragic for the people of Turkey, set of circumstances? Neither more nor less, but fate itself is on his side. And there is a feeling that the Turkish leader, unlike his "dear friend", uses the opportunity presented to him to the maximum.
        1. +5
          February 9 2023
          There was such a Roman leader - Julian the Apostate. Before becoming a single ruler, all his more powerful rivals "resolved in history" as if by themselves. At the last moment, an army of 80 stood against him against his 13. The situation is hopeless. But the priests stubbornly told him that, unlike Constantine the Great, he would win without shedding a single drop of blood. In the rear of the uprising, in front of the enemies, almost 7 to one. And suddenly his last rival dies at the age of 44. He is already going to die with the remnants of the army, and a letter arrives to meet him that the troops of his enemy swear allegiance to him. He came to Constantinople not even as a triumphant, but as some kind of demigod. But the tide of history has changed. Julian finished, however, as if they had put a limit - an accidental injury due to negligence and negligence and a quick death.
          So, given that Erdogan has already sat out everyone, I would bet on his experience and political instinct, well, we help him, as they say, "to the best of our ability."
    2. +7
      February 9 2023
      not a friend of erdogan

      and not a friend and not an enemy, but so ... changeable cunning Erdogan
  3. +1
    February 9 2023
    political scientists generally agree that it will not be transferred
    They started talking about postponing the elections in the Turkish parliament, but not to the right, but to the left - from June to April-May. And this is in the hands of Erdogan in the current situation. Better Erdogan than a tough US-oriented opposition candidate.
    1. +3
      February 9 2023
      Quote: rotmistr60
      And this is in the hands of Erdogan in the current situation.

      A man as sophisticated in politics as Erdogan will undoubtedly use the situation to his advantage. Now it will be enough to competently and quickly deal with the consequences of a large-scale tragedy, and the rating will soar again ...
    2. +4
      February 9 2023
      In the current circumstances, the Turkish opposition is not in our favor at all. Although it seems to many that we are yielding too much to Ankara. But in this particular case, taking into account all the pieces on the board, I would not rush to conclusions about the uselessness of these concessions.
  4. +7
    February 9 2023
    We also had significant earthquakes. These are Ashgabat, Tashkent, Spitak. and There were great victims. Japan is shaking all the time. An average of 1500 large and small shocks per year. And there are much fewer victims. Here is the necessary construction, and mobilization in case of natural disasters. Iran does not advertise its destruction very much. Perhaps there is a clear idea of ​​how to deal with the consequences. This earthquake can play both in favor of Erdogan and against. It all depends on the arguments of the opposition and the ruling party.
    1. +4
      February 9 2023
      It all depends on the arguments of the opposition and the ruling party.

      I would even say not so much from the arguments, but from the channels of communication in their hands, through which they can bring their position to the population. This issue is especially acute, of course, in the most affected areas. It is completely incomprehensible how to conduct a campaign campaign there in a month or two, because there are problems even with television and radio broadcasting, not to mention the Internet. Local branches of party organizations are also likely to have suffered significantly. So the only way out is to import APM from other regions of the country. But to be frank, people are not up to it now. Of course, by the time of the elections, the prostration will have passed, there will be an awareness of what happened, and then the winner will be the one whose supporters were really involved "in the field." It is clear that all political forces in Turkey will try to make the most of their means to eliminate the consequences of the earthquake, the only question is who will be the first to "appropriate" the result of this activity in their favor. As an analogy, we can recall the situation with the humanitarian aid of the LDNR: all parliamentary parties help about the same, but on TV they show only the symbols of the EP. So here too. And here it is precisely his foreign policy that can play into the hands of Erdogan, which made it possible to attract professional rescuers from almost the entire Mediterranean and Black Sea region. It is unlikely that Kılıçdaroglu will be able to boast of the same, and I think no one will allow him to saddle the volunteer movement within Turkey itself.
    2. +1
      February 10 2023
      The figure of 20 thousand found dead is already wandering. There, the weather is still cold and damp, which lowers the chances of survival.
      Quote: Nikolay Malyugin
      Japan is shaking all the time. An average of 1500 large and small shocks per year. And there are far fewer victims.

      A rigid clan-feudal system in which the construction manager of the collapsed is offered to make seppuku. And if you refuse, they will drop it out the window. Very strict control of the construction by the former military, whom you can’t bribe, as the Shintoists. Huge investments of effort and money in the design of earthquake-resistant structures, and constant training in shock behavior, from kindergarten they teach where to run and how to protect your head from falling small debris if you don’t have a helmet and goggles. Therefore, there is material damage, but almost no people are lost.
      By the way, the instruction on the "jellyfish" is incorrect, it is IMPOSSIBLE to cover your head with your hands! Since cuts on the hands are both blood loss and the impossibility of self-salvation. A hat, a bicycle helmet, a construction helmet, an empty backpack on your back - anything, but hide your hands under the body to protect them from cuts.
  5. +2
    February 9 2023
    R. Erdogan will overcome the bar of 50% of the vote
    No doubt it will overcome.
  6. +8
    February 9 2023
    Definitely, Erdogan will play a trump card - it is in a situation of emergency that it is clearly shown that Turkey's policy of non-alignment with any of the parties to the conflict made it possible for Turkey to receive help from everywhere, and he needs to use his mind to pedal with the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations in Turkey. But what can I say - this is a well-deserved trump card.
    Oh yes...
    Israel just recently declared that they are able to make forecasts in 48 hours. And Israel, after all, also shook, but somehow it didn’t work out with the forecasts.

    Just here recently this bike "brothers in mind" from Israel was twisted to me. There, by reference, the essence was what - a group who called themselves scientists, said that yes, in 48 hours, we can predict. And then a set of stupid crap.
    1) The physics of the process is not even described in principle. Based on observations of the ionosphere ... Which, by the way, is not tied to the shaking lithosphere in any way and dangles anyhow.
    2) The data are not confirmed by independent sources, and only after at least two confirmations can the invention be seriously considered at all. That is, strictly speaking, a fake.
    3) Most importantly, the authors themselves clearly say that they did not try to predict anything. Never. They simply studied changes in the ionosphere during past earthquakes, and it seemed to them that they found something. Well, I can do it too - the day before the earthquake, the sun always set in the west. That is, if the sun sets in the west, there will be an earthquake. 48 hours, yes.
    Hello six-pointed fake-throwers
    1. +5
      February 9 2023
      And I remember, I also participated a little in this amusing discussion)))
      The character was persistent
  7. +3
    February 9 2023
    Quote: nikolaevskiy78
    The casualty figures have, of course, changed. In Syria, they slightly decreased, in Turkey, on the contrary, they increased.

    Judging by the number of completely destroyed buildings, there will be more than 60 victims in Turkey. I would like to be wrong, but there is little hope for this.
    1. +2
      February 9 2023
      So much is unlikely, but the figures of the largest "Izmit earthquake" in 40 years may well come up (up to 40 thousand). The magnitude, by the way, was then similar - 7,6 points.
  8. +2
    February 9 2023
    What happened could theoretically be achieved using nuclear weapons or conventional weapons? What would have been destroyed in this region so many buildings. I understand that people would have died and suffered many times more due to the presence of not only a shock wave.
    1. +4
      February 9 2023
      Underground tests are well detected. I can hardly be mistaken, but not a single such test took place without registration by observers. But with such a magnitude, it is even difficult to guess what kind of charge in theory should be laid and to what depth. Shaking within a radius of 600 km. The destruction is similar to the consequences of the 1999 cataclysm, with a magnitude of 7,6 points
  9. +1
    February 10 2023
    At the crossing, leaders do not change.
  10. 0
    February 13 2023
    There is no amerskoy embassy, ​​consider there is no half of the opposition. Well, what is it worth driving the American embassy out of the country, and if something needs to be coughed up, that is, there is a special connection with video, flying by plane is also not so difficult today

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